4 ms·

>l likely this wouldn't change things too much in practice. You are significantly underestimating how much of the day-to-day economy happens in "under the tabl

>l likely this wouldn't change things too much in practice. You are significantly underestimating how much of the day-to-day economy happens in "under the table" cash transactions (doesn't even have to be cash, some unsophisticated casino-chip setup like Venmo or Cashapp works as well) that wouldn't stand up to the kind of scrutiny afforded by a CBDC system.

rich_sasha 4y ago
Hmm, well, true. I guess I don't have much sympathy for the kind of industries that couldn't stand up to scrutiny. There are also fairly benign cases of cash-in-hand industries like builders etc., dodging tax by taking cash payments of the book, good question how that would evolve. You hit the nail on the head there btw, it would lead to a shadow economy based on some other medium of exchange, perhaps crypto. Except... How do you buy your crypto in the first place? Surely not with CBDC..!
- humanizersequel 4y ago
  >I don't have much sympathy for the kind of industries that couldn't stand up to scrutiny In practice, what this means is that a great many industries (restaurants, construction, anything where immigrant labor is popular and viable, etc) have found a way to elide our — I'm speaking from a US perspective here, this may be different in the UK — sclerotic bureaucracy. Many things would become much more expensive with the introduction of a CBDC. Also, this means that you're trusting the government to perfectly delineate the bounds of an acceptable life. I don't...
  - rich_sasha 4y ago
    > Also, this means that you're trusting the government to perfectly delineate the bounds of an acceptable life. I don't... So my main point is, I trust the government's inertia and inefficiency much more than its good intentions. Let's say the govt has some evil plan to control people's spending, or try to eke out illegal transactions by sifting through their detailed accounts. Who is going to implement this, as in code up? In Europe at least, some underpaid coders who enjoy a 30h week instead. It will be designed and assessed by multiple committees, be hampered by legacy databases, lack of CPU time, and anyway the people actually in charge will not understand the technology, and have their own objectives, which will presumably be to move on from an IT project. This is not meant to be mean to people who work on such projects, I'm sure there are many talented and dedicated people there but I think this is the environment they contend with. Of course in US this might get outsourced to Palantir or someone like it and they would just maximise the true positive rate at all costs...
    - int_19h 4y ago
      What this means in practice is that it won't eke out all illegal transactions. It just means that the thunder will strike at random, still increasing the risk (and thus the costs) for everyone involved, and deterring a lot more people than those who are immediately affected. It will also cause problems for people who aren't even doing anything shady due to false positives. We'll rant about it like we did about the no-fly list, but once the system is in place, it will be impossible to remove it. So it'll just gradually become more and more pervasive and oppressive over time as various politicians come up with different strawmen to attack.
khmii 4y ago
There is also the idea with banking that I am trusting the bank with my money but I do have the option to withdraw the funds and put them under the mattress. At least in the US, the idea of eliminating the ability to withdraw an account is absurd. That form of money will simply never be widely used in the US. I believe the digital yuan already has this problem of just not being used enough.

rich_sasha 4y ago

Hmm, well, true. I guess I don't have much sympathy for the kind of industries that couldn't stand up to scrutiny. There are also fairly benign cases of cash-in-hand industries like builders etc., dodging tax by taking cash payments of the book, good question how that would evolve. You hit the nail on the head there btw, it would lead to a shadow economy based on some other medium of exchange, perhaps crypto. Except... How do you buy your crypto in the first place? Surely not with CBDC..!

humanizersequel 4y ago
>I don't have much sympathy for the kind of industries that couldn't stand up to scrutiny In practice, what this means is that a great many industries (restaurants, construction, anything where immigrant labor is popular and viable, etc) have found a way to elide our — I'm speaking from a US perspective here, this may be different in the UK — sclerotic bureaucracy. Many things would become much more expensive with the introduction of a CBDC. Also, this means that you're trusting the government to perfectly delineate the bounds of an acceptable life. I don't...
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  > Also, this means that you're trusting the government to perfectly delineate the bounds of an acceptable life. I don't... So my main point is, I trust the government's inertia and inefficiency much more than its good intentions. Let's say the govt has some evil plan to control people's spending, or try to eke out illegal transactions by sifting through their detailed accounts. Who is going to implement this, as in code up? In Europe at least, some underpaid coders who enjoy a 30h week instead. It will be designed and assessed by multiple committees, be hampered by legacy databases, lack of CPU time, and anyway the people actually in charge will not understand the technology, and have their own objectives, which will presumably be to move on from an IT project. This is not meant to be mean to people who work on such projects, I'm sure there are many talented and dedicated people there but I think this is the environment they contend with. Of course in US this might get outsourced to Palantir or someone like it and they would just maximise the true positive rate at all costs...
  - int_19h 4y ago
    What this means in practice is that it won't eke out all illegal transactions. It just means that the thunder will strike at random, still increasing the risk (and thus the costs) for everyone involved, and deterring a lot more people than those who are immediately affected. It will also cause problems for people who aren't even doing anything shady due to false positives. We'll rant about it like we did about the no-fly list, but once the system is in place, it will be impossible to remove it. So it'll just gradually become more and more pervasive and oppressive over time as various politicians come up with different strawmen to attack.

khmii 4y ago

There is also the idea with banking that I am trusting the bank with my money but I do have the option to withdraw the funds and put them under the mattress. At least in the US, the idea of eliminating the ability to withdraw an account is absurd. That form of money will simply never be widely used in the US. I believe the digital yuan already has this problem of just not being used enough.