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"You could probably write a similar one with Russia ..." I disagree - there is no credible motive here for Russia and, in fact, the outcome was directly oppose
by rsync 4y ago
"You could probably write a similar one with Russia ..."
I disagree - there is no credible motive here for Russia and, in fact, the outcome was directly opposed to every outcome they are, or were trying, to achieve.
Not only do I, as a US citizen, believe that the US perpetrated this act but further: I believe it is an overtly hostile action against EU citizens and, particularly, Germans, who will suffer the most economically.
EU states are now buying US natural gas like we always wanted them to. How much pain and suffering were we willing to inflict to make that happen ?
- mmastrac 4y agoThere are plenty of credible motives for Russia to do this (some even listed in this thread), but they are all just as weakly supported as this theory.
- jeltz 4y agoYup, there are a lot of motives for many countries but there is no smoking gun or obvious candidate. Too many people potentially benefited from this.
- coffeebeqn 4y agoJust mistrust and finger pointing among the western alliance is one. Turns out everyone wanted it gone- except maybe a few Russian assets like Orban
- foota 4y agoI remember reading at the time that the motive would have been to remove the oligarch's desire to end the war. If you can't sell the gas anyway, then you can't complain about it. Seeing as Russia was already using gas supplies as a political tool, it doesn't seem too far fetched.
- LarryMullins 4y ago> I believe it is an overtly hostile action against EU citizens and, particularly, Germans, who will suffer the most economically. In the scenario where America did it, I think there is a strong argument to be made that it was in the long-term interests of EU citizens, despite causing them some short-term discomfort. They never should have started this pipeline project in the first place, buying energy from Russia made the EU weak. Breaking that relationship permanently will make the EU stronger.
- Eduard 4y ago> ... causing EU citizens short-term discomfort You have no idea what's going on. Also, are you arguing that having less choice in market supply is good better for EU?
- pillefitz 4y agoWe were quite happy with cheap energy and it was great to have a choice between Russian gas and American LNG, until that option disappeared.
- letrowekwel 4y agoThat option disappeared when Russia invaded Ukraine, not when the pipeline was blown up (at least if you rate human life over economics). Nobody should buy anything from a regime like Putin's Russia.
- RobotToaster 4y agoIt's fine to buy gas from the USA, the butchers of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Yugoslavia though?
- Animatronio 4y agoYes, it's even sweeter because EU industry is quickly becoming unable to compete successfully on global markets and the Russians are getting poorer. Two birds with one stone!
- mint2 4y agoIt’s telling that this post includes stopping a genocide as a bad thing, I.e. the UN stopping the Bosnian genocide in the fracturing Yugoslavia as a bad thing. Coincidentally, the Russian sphere is one of the groups mad about the UN involvement in Bosnia and Serbia
- mempko 4y ago
- letrowekwel 4y agoAs an EU citizen living next to Russia I can assure you, I'm DELIGHTED that people can no longer buy gas from a mass murderer like Putin. Anyone who buys gas from Russia is essentially supporting genocide of Ukrainian civilians, if suffering is what we're talking about. Besides, things are going on pretty okay. Electricity prices are stabilizing and Europe will eventually become greener as well. No matter who did it, blowing up the pipeline was a good thing.
- ghostwriter 4y ago> Anyone who buys gas from Russia is essentially supporting genocide of Ukrainian civilians, if suffering is what we're talking about. Weekly snapshot: Russian fossil fuel exports 16 to 22 January 2023: * The week of 16 to 22 January 2023, the EU was the largest importer of Russian fossil fuels. * The EU imported pipeline gas, oil products and LNG, as well as crude oil via pipeline or rail. * The top five EU importer countries last week were the Netherlands, Slovakia, Germany, Belgium and Italy. [1] [1] https://energyandcleanair.org/weekly-snapshot-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-16-to-22-january-2023/ https://energyandcleanair.org/weekly-snapshot-russian-fossil...
- dralley 4y agoAnd yet, the situation has drastically changed from one year ago. Russian gas went from being 50% of EU gas imports to 10%. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-suppl... https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451 https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451
- ghostwriter 4y ago> Russian gas went from being 50% of EU gas imports to 10%. That's expected as there's no longer the pipelines everyone is discussing in this comment section.
- welterde 4y agoThe second string of NS2 is undamaged (but denied operation from the German side). In addition Russia there are several land-based pipelines from Russia to central Europe (only used for small volumes at this point - much below capacity).
- oezi 4y agoThe amount of LNG gas remains insignificant so far. Germany also hasn't signed any significant contract with the US but rather with Qatar. To give you one credible motive for Russian involvement: Russia cut off Europe of Gas supplies to get leverage on the Ukraine conflict, but this largely failed as European countries pooled their gas reserves and vowed to move away from Russian gas. As Russia could see that this market was lost the explosions were a last punch to send gas prices higher before the European winter and protect Gazprom from lawsuits. The mild weather killed that first motive, let's see about the other.
- AnonymousPlanet 4y agoIt was a hostage situation. "You want to quit our gas? See how you're going to fare when winter comes and you can't fill your storage in time." In September it was already clear that a weak polar vortex would make for a frosty winter in the northern hemisphere. It was just luck (for Europe) that it hit North America and not Europe. During summer in Germany every week more people were drumming up (literally) demands to open Nord Stream 2. There was no way of being sure a German government wouldn't flip under pressure once people were freezing and showing up with torches at the Reichstag. But one September night someone went in and shot the hostages...
- dralley 4y agoGod supports Ukraine, apparently: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl8IHLWXEAENTO6?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl8IHLWXEAENTO6?format=jpg&name=...
- BlueTemplar 4y agoWhile this winter is milder than usual, Europe does typically have a hotter climate than could be expected, thanks to the Gulf Stream. (For instance the North Mediterranean is on the same longitude as New York !)
- MilaM 4y agoAs a German citizen let me tell you, hardly anyone here is angry that the pipelines are gone. No one is even talking about Nord Stream anymore. When Gazprom stopped the gas flows in July 2022, it was abundandly clear, that the deliveries would not resume in the foreseable future. In a way, blowing up the pipelines made things easier, because the government and the industry could fully focus on reorganizing energy procurement, without being needlessly entangled in hypothetical discussions about what could have been. Even if Russia wanted to resume selling gas to Western Europe sometime in the future, there is still plenty of capacity in the remaining pipelines through Belarus and Poland, as well as Ukraine. They are fully operational and currently either not used at all (Yamal pipeline), or operating at a very low capacity (Transgas).
- 0xDEF 4y agoI am Danish. Half the country was making fart jokes about the leak. Nobody is missing the Nord Stream pipelines.
- brmgb 4y agoI'm French and I'm missing the Nord Stream pipelines. We need all the supply lanes we can get even if our neighbours are untrustworthy. Now we have to rely on the US and there is nothing worse than relying on the US. Europe just showed once again it failed to learn anything from the Suez crisis. The US should never be trusted. They are not a reliable and only care about themselves. Europe has been mismanaging its relationship with the BRIC since the end of the Cold War. We are too dependent on NATO. Not that there is much to expect from the EU. Every addition since 1995 has only weakened it.
- 0xDEF 4y agoEurope couldn't even stop Little Russia (Serbia) from genociding Bonsian Muslims and Kosovo-Albanians until the US-led NATO intervention had to put a stop to it twice. Also Norway can replace a lot of the Russian gas supplies.
- 4y ago
- splitstud 4y ago[dead]
- ribit 4y agoThere is a lot of credible motive for the fascist russia. First, make allies distrust each other, sabotaging their unity. Second, create panic among the EU population, hoping for increased pressure to lift the sanctions and stop support of Ukraine defending their homeland. Third, force the issue with pending legal approvals for the remaining new pipeline. Fortunately, EU managed to store up plenty of gas and the winter was mild, so russian blackmail has failed.
- MisterTea 4y ago> Fortunately, EU managed to store up plenty of gas and the winter was mild, so russian blackmail has failed. Hooray for global warming?
- ribit 4y agoAre you saying that the world should just bend over to russian imperialism and merrily let them commit cultural genocide because global warming is bad? Cause I am at a loss what your comment is supposed to mean. If not for imperialism and lack of foresight and integrity among both the elites and the general population, we wouldn’t have either global warming nor these kind of wars. Global warming is already here, and it’s shitty enough, but if it will help bring down those imperialist monsters I certainly won’t cry over it.
- MisterTea 4y agoHumor eludes most people.
- peterfirefly 4y agoNotice how the Nord Stream explosions were timed with the opening of the Baltic Pipe connection, which makes it possible to send Norwegian (and Danish) gas from the North Sea to Poland (and possibly further to Lithuania). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Pipe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Pipe Putin was still trying to energy blackmail Europe back then. It is hard to see the explosions as anything else but a threat that the Baltic Pipe could also be blown up -- and the Nord Stream pipes weren't very useful to Russia at that point so it wouldn't cost much to lose them.
- naasking 4y agoSorry, but why wouldn't he just blow up the Baltic Pipe then? What use is the threat itself when you admit losing the Nord Stream did cost them something? Seems like a stretch.
- peterfirefly 4y agoThat would have been treated as an attack on NATO. Why perform a hostile act if a much cheaper threat works? Even if it only gets you 10% of what a successful hostile act gets you, it is worth doing because it is a lot less risky.
- naasking 4y agoGotta say this threat doesn't sound compelling. Who didn't know Russia could bomb a pipeline? Seems more like Russia punching itself in the face for literally no reason. Also, given the climate now, if there was even a shred of evidence or any hint that Putin did this, US media and intelligence officials would be blaring that from every rooftop and every talking head would be "Russia this", and "Russia that". I think the relative silence speaks very clearly.
- peterfirefly 4y agoWe also know that kidnappers can kill people. We take them a lot more seriously when they started sending ears in the post, don't we?