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At that moment in the war, even Putin had a lot of strong motivations -- lock out the option of bringing Nord Stream back online and close to door on de-escalat

At that moment in the war, even Putin had a lot of strong motivations -- lock out the option of bringing Nord Stream back online and close to door on de-escalation. As a side-benefit, the possibility of driving a wedge into NATO. I also found https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713402 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713402 interesting. Who knows.

hef19898 4y ago
Well, someone did it. If somebody knows who, they are not telling. Without sources, everything is specilation at best, consiracy theory BS or propaganda at worst. Personally, I don't even believe half of what is reported with connection to the war in Ukraine.
- thwayunion 4y ago
  Agreed. One of those situations where everyone wants to blame everyone else for a "terrible" thing that happened, but at the same time don't really GAF because all sides were okay with finalizing a clean break between Europe and Russia for a variety of domestic and IR reasons anyways.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Now I picture a virtual waiting line of covert divers and motivated activists in front of the pipelines waiting for their turn to try it. And being pissed someone else was first! Maybe they have a class reunion of sorts ten years from now!
    - bee_rider 4y ago
      A dozen divers of the joint US-Russia-Ukraine-Germany “diplomacy simplification strike force” show up only to find the wreckage of the pipeline. Floating nearby, the telltale calling-card, a globe emblazoned on a white flag… Greenpeace!
      - hef19898 4y ago
        >> joint US-Russia-Ukraine-Germany “diplomacy simplification strike force” Thank you so much for this, makes me start the day in such a better mood!!!
Laaas 4y ago
Why do you think Putin is against de-escalation? The post you links to proposes a not very sensible argument: We are talking about _nation states_. The law isn't as black and white, Gazprom would not pay any fines put on it by a court of the enemy. Even if they were to pay fines put on them, why would this in any way reduce fines? Even if it were to reduce the fines, why would that be worth more than two pipelines there were full of methane? It sounds very implausible.
- _djo_ 4y ago
  International contract arbitration wouldn't be handled by 'a court of the enemy', but by a neutral venue mutually agreed to in the contract signing, perhaps hosted by the World Bank, International Chamber of Commerce, or similar. Gazprom would have to abide by it once relations are normalised, or find other countries unwilling to trust it when signing future contracts.
marginalia_nu 4y ago
Putin was already effectively doing that, by demanding payment in rubles and making weird terms. If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas. What was Europe going to do, sanction him more? I can see the US doing it as they've been vocal opponents to nordstream since its inception, I can see Ukraine wanting to do it although I doubt they'd have the resources, might also have been some other rogue European faction wanting out from under Putin's thumb.
- mlyle 4y ago
  > If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas. Permanently shutting it down significantly constrains options for anyone who might seize power in Russia next.
- VintageCool 4y ago
  The "Putin did it" hypothesis was that he did it to prevent internal replacement. Suppose that some Russian rival wanted to replace him. They could kill or imprison Putin, end the war in Ukraine, restart the gas pipelines, and have a lot of gas money from Europe to distribute to supporters. Destroying the pipelines removed the potential reward for an internal rival to replace him.
  - landemva 4y ago
    > Suppose that some Russian rival Putin's rivals make Putin look soft. If they do take power, they will end the conflict quickly and definitively.
    - archagon 4y ago
      There is no mechanism by which the war can be ended quickly and definitively without global murder-suicide. (Aside from Russia leaving, of course.)
      - throwA29B 4y ago
        Huh? Indiscriminate bombing US-style will do that in a flash. Heck leveling Kiev will do that too. Could be done in a day.
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
this is silly - no-one blows up their own assets. This pipeline was hard-won for Russia, they would not destroy it

hef19898 4y ago

Well, someone did it. If somebody knows who, they are not telling. Without sources, everything is specilation at best, consiracy theory BS or propaganda at worst. Personally, I don't even believe half of what is reported with connection to the war in Ukraine.

thwayunion 4y ago
Agreed. One of those situations where everyone wants to blame everyone else for a "terrible" thing that happened, but at the same time don't really GAF because all sides were okay with finalizing a clean break between Europe and Russia for a variety of domestic and IR reasons anyways.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Now I picture a virtual waiting line of covert divers and motivated activists in front of the pipelines waiting for their turn to try it. And being pissed someone else was first! Maybe they have a class reunion of sorts ten years from now!
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    A dozen divers of the joint US-Russia-Ukraine-Germany “diplomacy simplification strike force” show up only to find the wreckage of the pipeline. Floating nearby, the telltale calling-card, a globe emblazoned on a white flag… Greenpeace!
    - hef19898 4y ago
      >> joint US-Russia-Ukraine-Germany “diplomacy simplification strike force” Thank you so much for this, makes me start the day in such a better mood!!!

Laaas 4y ago

Why do you think Putin is against de-escalation? The post you links to proposes a not very sensible argument: We are talking about _nation states_. The law isn't as black and white, Gazprom would not pay any fines put on it by a court of the enemy. Even if they were to pay fines put on them, why would this in any way reduce fines? Even if it were to reduce the fines, why would that be worth more than two pipelines there were full of methane? It sounds very implausible.

_djo_ 4y ago
International contract arbitration wouldn't be handled by 'a court of the enemy', but by a neutral venue mutually agreed to in the contract signing, perhaps hosted by the World Bank, International Chamber of Commerce, or similar. Gazprom would have to abide by it once relations are normalised, or find other countries unwilling to trust it when signing future contracts.

marginalia_nu 4y ago

Putin was already effectively doing that, by demanding payment in rubles and making weird terms. If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas. What was Europe going to do, sanction him more? I can see the US doing it as they've been vocal opponents to nordstream since its inception, I can see Ukraine wanting to do it although I doubt they'd have the resources, might also have been some other rogue European faction wanting out from under Putin's thumb.

mlyle 4y ago
> If Putin wanted to shut down Nordstream, he'd just stop sending gas. Permanently shutting it down significantly constrains options for anyone who might seize power in Russia next.
VintageCool 4y ago
The "Putin did it" hypothesis was that he did it to prevent internal replacement. Suppose that some Russian rival wanted to replace him. They could kill or imprison Putin, end the war in Ukraine, restart the gas pipelines, and have a lot of gas money from Europe to distribute to supporters. Destroying the pipelines removed the potential reward for an internal rival to replace him.
- landemva 4y ago
  > Suppose that some Russian rival Putin's rivals make Putin look soft. If they do take power, they will end the conflict quickly and definitively.
  - archagon 4y ago
    There is no mechanism by which the war can be ended quickly and definitively without global murder-suicide. (Aside from Russia leaving, of course.)
    - throwA29B 4y ago
      Huh? Indiscriminate bombing US-style will do that in a flash. Heck leveling Kiev will do that too. Could be done in a day.

ClumsyPilot 4y ago

this is silly - no-one blows up their own assets. This pipeline was hard-won for Russia, they would not destroy it