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Russia's budget deficit explodes as latest sanctions bite
- jfengel 4y agoI don't see this having an effect on the Ukraine war any time soon, but it does make resolving the war even harder. No matter how it turns out, Russia has destroyed both its military and its international position. Even winning will not significantly improve their situation. The West wants nothing to do with them, and that won't end with their conquest. They can continue eking out a living through China and India, but the world is already learning to live without their fossil fuels, and would live without Ukrainian grain if it became Russian grain. They're burning through their reserves, and they'll continue to for many years. The West won't open up to them if they win, and if they lose the West will demand reparations before resuming trade. They were a marginal economy before, and will become truly impoverished. What room does that leave for negotiations? Why would they ever stop fighting, when even a win is so bad and a loss is even worse? It feels as if the least-worst outcome is a complete collapse and surrender, followed by a Marshall Plan-style rebuilding. It's remarkable that the Allies were willing to do that; I don't know if it's possible today. It was possible then only because Germany admitted utter defeat and to this day acknowledges that defeat. Is there an approach more like Japan's? I dunno. But it doesn't sound like Russia is going to be willing to admit defeat in a world where they hold nuclear cards.