4 ms·

Can someone explain how this is rational? We have a tiny sample of how Bard performs and people draw conclusions from it?

dougmwne 4y ago
Because Google’s stock price was based on a lot of hype about their incredible capabilities and future growth. The contrast between the 2 presentations pop the bubble a bit. Plenty of people believed that Google could easily keep up with any thing other companies could throw its way and remain dominant in search indefinitely. This is perhaps the first time that is really being called into question.
jsnell 4y ago
If you read carefully, you'll notice that the article never actually claims there is a causal relationship between the ad and the share price dropping ("price dropped because of X"), just a temporal one ("X happened, and some time after that the price dropped"). This is a trick the business media pulls all the time. The reality is that they don't know why the share price changed, but reporting just on the change isn't very interesting, so they'll pick some plausible reason and run with it.
- kevinpet 4y ago
  The irony is this type of business writing is going to be among the first replaced by AI (it already is in local sports), because this sort of vacuous "mention some things that relate to each other" approximation to correctness is a standard that chat bots have already reached.
  - whatshisface 4y ago
    I think a lot of those investment news articles already are automated.
    - pixelfarmer 4y ago
      Which is then picked up by other machines to derive what trades to do on the stock market. At what point do we decide to just shut all this energy wasting garbage down and use the machinery for more useful things?
  - spacemadness 4y ago
    This has already happened.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
redox99 4y ago
The causal implication in the title is basically made up (8% drop entirely because of incorrect example). The way I see it, in this AI war, considering google already has an almost monopoly, they have a lot to lose and not much to win, and the opposite for the remaining players.
nvahalik 4y ago
If your ad shows your brand new AI product making an _obvious_ error... that's a problem. It signals that you cannot trust anything else without actually checking...
denlekke 4y ago
i imagine the stock price drop is more due to microsoft incorporating GPT than the wrong answer
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
We think that stock prices are based on earnings or profits. But they aren't (except for stocks that pay dividends.) A more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view earnings or profits. More specifically, what they expect future earnings or profits to be. From this perspective, it makes a bit of sense - if everybody thought that Bard was going to be a huge new pile of money for Google, and now it looks like it won't be, then people think Google stock is worth less. An even more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view how other people view future profits. So if you think everyone else is expecting Bard to make Google a boatload of money, then if the Bard demo goes badly, it may be rational to sell, even if you personally didn't expect Bard to be any good.
- meindnoch 4y ago
  >A more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view earnings or profits. More specifically, what they expect future earnings or profits to be. Stock prices are based on how people expect future stock prices to be.
5350-uiop-1130 4y ago
rational? stock prices are speculative. i'm glad that layoffs pump got wiped out, at least for now.
neaden 4y ago
As people have said this isn't necessarily cause and effect, but if you can't get your new product working correctly in the controlled environment of an ad it certainly shakes my confidence that it will be working reliably in practice.

dougmwne 4y ago

Because Google’s stock price was based on a lot of hype about their incredible capabilities and future growth. The contrast between the 2 presentations pop the bubble a bit. Plenty of people believed that Google could easily keep up with any thing other companies could throw its way and remain dominant in search indefinitely. This is perhaps the first time that is really being called into question.

jsnell 4y ago

If you read carefully, you'll notice that the article never actually claims there is a causal relationship between the ad and the share price dropping ("price dropped because of X"), just a temporal one ("X happened, and some time after that the price dropped"). This is a trick the business media pulls all the time. The reality is that they don't know why the share price changed, but reporting just on the change isn't very interesting, so they'll pick some plausible reason and run with it.

kevinpet 4y ago
The irony is this type of business writing is going to be among the first replaced by AI (it already is in local sports), because this sort of vacuous "mention some things that relate to each other" approximation to correctness is a standard that chat bots have already reached.
- whatshisface 4y ago
  I think a lot of those investment news articles already are automated.
  - pixelfarmer 4y ago
    Which is then picked up by other machines to derive what trades to do on the stock market. At what point do we decide to just shut all this energy wasting garbage down and use the machinery for more useful things?
- spacemadness 4y ago
  This has already happened.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

redox99 4y ago

The causal implication in the title is basically made up (8% drop entirely because of incorrect example). The way I see it, in this AI war, considering google already has an almost monopoly, they have a lot to lose and not much to win, and the opposite for the remaining players.

nvahalik 4y ago

If your ad shows your brand new AI product making an _obvious_ error... that's a problem. It signals that you cannot trust anything else without actually checking...

denlekke 4y ago

i imagine the stock price drop is more due to microsoft incorporating GPT than the wrong answer

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

We think that stock prices are based on earnings or profits. But they aren't (except for stocks that pay dividends.) A more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view earnings or profits. More specifically, what they expect future earnings or profits to be. From this perspective, it makes a bit of sense - if everybody thought that Bard was going to be a huge new pile of money for Google, and now it looks like it won't be, then people think Google stock is worth less. An even more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view how other people view future profits. So if you think everyone else is expecting Bard to make Google a boatload of money, then if the Bard demo goes badly, it may be rational to sell, even if you personally didn't expect Bard to be any good.

meindnoch 4y ago
>A more sophisticated way of looking at it is that stock prices are based on how people view earnings or profits. More specifically, what they expect future earnings or profits to be. Stock prices are based on how people expect future stock prices to be.

5350-uiop-1130 4y ago

rational? stock prices are speculative. i'm glad that layoffs pump got wiped out, at least for now.

neaden 4y ago

As people have said this isn't necessarily cause and effect, but if you can't get your new product working correctly in the controlled environment of an ad it certainly shakes my confidence that it will be working reliably in practice.