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> I hope Google is not pulling a Blackberry moment. It would be awesome, actually. Demonopolization of search space is long due. We need some breath of fresh a

> I hope Google is not pulling a Blackberry moment. It would be awesome, actually. Demonopolization of search space is long due. We need some breath of fresh air there.

brookst 4y ago
Google’s dominance is because of network effects; the largest search engine collects more data about what people are searching for and has the largest ad inventory, making it hard to compete with. ChatGPT has similar network effects with feedback. If Google is displaced, it will likely be in favor of another single dominant solution, not a commoditized industry with lots of players. It’s possible that niche domains like medical advice or creative writing assistance will spawn small, highly-optimized companies, but general purpose AI responders will probably coalesce into whatever the next Google is, if it’s not just Google.
- bsaul 4y ago
  With this kind of reasoning there would be no way to disrupt a first actor in a new field.
  - voakbasda 4y ago
    If their execution is good, there isn't. Fortunately, we are all human, and that's not guaranteed.
  - brookst 4y ago
    Depends on the field. Fields with strong network effects, like social media, lend themselves towards strong incumbents. But usually the market changes faster than an incumbent can, so disrupting comes from changing users needs rather than someone building a better mousetrap to serve the same needs. But lots of industries don't have particularly strong network effects. Cars are a good example; there's brand affinity, but there's no particular reason you need to drive the same brand as your neighbor. There are scale economies, so it's still not easy for new entrants.
yamtaddle 4y ago
It's not just that—their gobbling up (then often killing) promising smaller companies, and offering tons of free products (paid for by spyvertising dollars) suppresses both commercial competitors that might be better, and FOSS alternatives, since there's less incentive to develop, contribute to, or push (to friend and family, or in a business context) FOSS solutions when you know you're competing with something Google provides for free, with a very-expensive team behind it, and a marketing budget. This extends way beyond, but is fueled by, their market position in unrelated areas (search, video, ads)

> I hope Google is not pulling a Blackberry moment. It would be awesome, actually. Demonopolization of search space is long due. We need some breath of fresh air there.

brookst 4y ago

Google’s dominance is because of network effects; the largest search engine collects more data about what people are searching for and has the largest ad inventory, making it hard to compete with. ChatGPT has similar network effects with feedback. If Google is displaced, it will likely be in favor of another single dominant solution, not a commoditized industry with lots of players. It’s possible that niche domains like medical advice or creative writing assistance will spawn small, highly-optimized companies, but general purpose AI responders will probably coalesce into whatever the next Google is, if it’s not just Google.

bsaul 4y ago
With this kind of reasoning there would be no way to disrupt a first actor in a new field.
- voakbasda 4y ago
  If their execution is good, there isn't. Fortunately, we are all human, and that's not guaranteed.
- brookst 4y ago
  Depends on the field. Fields with strong network effects, like social media, lend themselves towards strong incumbents. But usually the market changes faster than an incumbent can, so disrupting comes from changing users needs rather than someone building a better mousetrap to serve the same needs. But lots of industries don't have particularly strong network effects. Cars are a good example; there's brand affinity, but there's no particular reason you need to drive the same brand as your neighbor. There are scale economies, so it's still not easy for new entrants.

yamtaddle 4y ago

It's not just that—their gobbling up (then often killing) promising smaller companies, and offering tons of free products (paid for by spyvertising dollars) suppresses both commercial competitors that might be better, and FOSS alternatives, since there's less incentive to develop, contribute to, or push (to friend and family, or in a business context) FOSS solutions when you know you're competing with something Google provides for free, with a very-expensive team behind it, and a marketing budget. This extends way beyond, but is fueled by, their market position in unrelated areas (search, video, ads)