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Apparently this is a contrarian take, but Google is in no way in danger of being disrupted by OpenAI. The scale they have means that they could reduce that "ad

Apparently this is a contrarian take, but Google is in no way in danger of being disrupted by OpenAI. The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. The compute they have can train more/better models than they can, and they have been working on this for longer than OpenAI has (see their keynote in 2017, Chatbot that got the guy fired because he thought it was sentient) Microsoft helps here, but all of those things still exist. Bing is tiny compared to Google. Microsoft will "win" the productivity tools (Teams, Office, etc.) for the same reason Google will win search. Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so.

jurmous 4y ago
Since Microsoft was working internally on the raw search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022, and Google did not show any chat results showing sources. My bet will be that Google won't even show sources below Bard results even a year from now. And this difference alone and with Microsoft already starting the first rollout of Bing Chat, I feel Bing will have gained a lot of marketshare in a year. Bing can only win and Google only lose with the current marketshare numbers.
- motoxpro 4y ago
  I think thats fair but again, it's over an order of magnitude difference. https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share#:~:text=The%20only%20difference%20comes%20in,half%20of%20Bing's%20market%20share https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share....
unoti 4y ago
> The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. I’m not so sure they have the Datacenter capacity with GPU’s to make that happen overnight, even if they have the software. They have an advantage in the demand side of that equation, but the supply side (datacenters, capacity) is a real challenge not to be overlooked.
- Mountain_Skies 4y ago
  With the current state of international relations and supply chain disruptions continuing to ripple from the pandemic, if I needed to rely on being able to quickly access a large number of GPUs or other microprocessors, I'd be very nervous right now. Not sure Google is even wake enough to see any of this.
lern_too_spel 4y ago
Training is not the issue. Each company already has a trained model that is useful for a wide range of tasks. Inference is the problem. Nobody has the infrastructure to run these models at scale. Until they do, they have to pick and choose the most valuable places to deploy them.
freetinker 4y ago
They have everything – except the culture to deliver, imo.
lm28469 4y ago
Material means are but one small step in this whole process. > Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so. Look back at the last 5-10 years and you'll have you answer. They're too busy sabotaging their search engine, cramping ads in youtube and cancelling products. Too big to fail but not too big to stall
- motoxpro 4y ago
  Totally. I think a year will show the direction but 5-10 years is also fine. AI is a feature, not a product.
galaxytachyon 4y ago
We simply don't know how early these megacorps started to work on these things. Remember the chatbot Tay? That was 2016 and I would say it was pretty advanced. Still NLP, just not LLM (I think). Google has the data advantage, but OpenAI basically has all the AI tech Microsoft has developed and I don't think Microsoft is that far behind google in term of innovations and patents. In fact, Microsoft has better track record in releasing and commercializing new tech. Google is good at half assing new tech and throw them in a pile of garbage later.

jurmous 4y ago

Since Microsoft was working internally on the raw search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022, and Google did not show any chat results showing sources. My bet will be that Google won't even show sources below Bard results even a year from now. And this difference alone and with Microsoft already starting the first rollout of Bing Chat, I feel Bing will have gained a lot of marketshare in a year. Bing can only win and Google only lose with the current marketshare numbers.

motoxpro 4y ago
I think thats fair but again, it's over an order of magnitude difference. https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share#:~:text=The%20only%20difference%20comes%20in,half%20of%20Bing's%20market%20share https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share....

unoti 4y ago

> The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. I’m not so sure they have the Datacenter capacity with GPU’s to make that happen overnight, even if they have the software. They have an advantage in the demand side of that equation, but the supply side (datacenters, capacity) is a real challenge not to be overlooked.

Mountain_Skies 4y ago
With the current state of international relations and supply chain disruptions continuing to ripple from the pandemic, if I needed to rely on being able to quickly access a large number of GPUs or other microprocessors, I'd be very nervous right now. Not sure Google is even wake enough to see any of this.

lern_too_spel 4y ago

Training is not the issue. Each company already has a trained model that is useful for a wide range of tasks. Inference is the problem. Nobody has the infrastructure to run these models at scale. Until they do, they have to pick and choose the most valuable places to deploy them.

freetinker 4y ago

They have everything – except the culture to deliver, imo.

lm28469 4y ago

Material means are but one small step in this whole process. > Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so. Look back at the last 5-10 years and you'll have you answer. They're too busy sabotaging their search engine, cramping ads in youtube and cancelling products. Too big to fail but not too big to stall

motoxpro 4y ago
Totally. I think a year will show the direction but 5-10 years is also fine. AI is a feature, not a product.

galaxytachyon 4y ago

We simply don't know how early these megacorps started to work on these things. Remember the chatbot Tay? That was 2016 and I would say it was pretty advanced. Still NLP, just not LLM (I think). Google has the data advantage, but OpenAI basically has all the AI tech Microsoft has developed and I don't think Microsoft is that far behind google in term of innovations and patents. In fact, Microsoft has better track record in releasing and commercializing new tech. Google is good at half assing new tech and throw them in a pile of garbage later.