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OpenAI’s huge advantage is several months of training by hundreds of millions of users. Google never risked putting a chat model out into the wild for fear it w

by ttul 4y ago

OpenAI’s huge advantage is several months of training by hundreds of millions of users. Google never risked putting a chat model out into the wild for fear it would lead to embarrassing misuses - typical behavior for a giant company defending a legacy business at all costs. OpenAI has no such legacy business to defend and so was free to take the risk.

AraceliHarker 4y ago
Google is not such a great ethical company, is it?
htrp 4y ago
If their [OpenAI's] server status is any indication, they've been fully tapped out for the better part of 2 months collecting prompt training data. Not sure how 100k google employees will be able to match that degree of training data.
- actsasbuffoon 4y ago
  According to a UBS study from last week, ChatGPT is the fastest growing consumer-based web app in history: https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-faste... This thing is taking off like wildfire. Google has very good reason to be terrified. This kind of growth is quite likely indicative of a major disruption.
motoxpro 4y ago
Apparently this is a contrarian take, but Google is in no way in danger of being disrupted by OpenAI. The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. The compute they have can train more/better models than they can, and they have been working on this for longer than OpenAI has (see their keynote in 2017, Chatbot that got the guy fired because he thought it was sentient) Microsoft helps here, but all of those things still exist. Bing is tiny compared to Google. Microsoft will "win" the productivity tools (Teams, Office, etc.) for the same reason Google will win search. Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so.
- jurmous 4y ago
  Since Microsoft was working internally on the raw search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022, and Google did not show any chat results showing sources. My bet will be that Google won't even show sources below Bard results even a year from now. And this difference alone and with Microsoft already starting the first rollout of Bing Chat, I feel Bing will have gained a lot of marketshare in a year. Bing can only win and Google only lose with the current marketshare numbers.
  - motoxpro 4y ago
    I think thats fair but again, it's over an order of magnitude difference. https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share#:~:text=The%20only%20difference%20comes%20in,half%20of%20Bing's%20market%20share https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share....
- unoti 4y ago
  > The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. I’m not so sure they have the Datacenter capacity with GPU’s to make that happen overnight, even if they have the software. They have an advantage in the demand side of that equation, but the supply side (datacenters, capacity) is a real challenge not to be overlooked.
  - Mountain_Skies 4y ago
    With the current state of international relations and supply chain disruptions continuing to ripple from the pandemic, if I needed to rely on being able to quickly access a large number of GPUs or other microprocessors, I'd be very nervous right now. Not sure Google is even wake enough to see any of this.
- lern_too_spel 4y ago
  Training is not the issue. Each company already has a trained model that is useful for a wide range of tasks. Inference is the problem. Nobody has the infrastructure to run these models at scale. Until they do, they have to pick and choose the most valuable places to deploy them.
jurmous 4y ago
Microsoft stated in an interview with The Verge that they were working with this new search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022. Months before the release of ChatGPT and the big inflow of data from real users. So this Prometheus model was created with different purposes since it can show sources and can be updated with new information on the fly. So it is quite ahead of ChatGPT. Microsoft is taking it with the direct access of OpenAI tech to the next level.
quaintdev 4y ago
> for fear it would lead to embarrassing misuses It's also difficult to integrate their ad business in chat model

by ttul 4y ago

AraceliHarker 4y ago

Google is not such a great ethical company, is it?

htrp 4y ago

If their [OpenAI's] server status is any indication, they've been fully tapped out for the better part of 2 months collecting prompt training data. Not sure how 100k google employees will be able to match that degree of training data.

actsasbuffoon 4y ago
According to a UBS study from last week, ChatGPT is the fastest growing consumer-based web app in history: https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-faste... This thing is taking off like wildfire. Google has very good reason to be terrified. This kind of growth is quite likely indicative of a major disruption.

motoxpro 4y ago

Apparently this is a contrarian take, but Google is in no way in danger of being disrupted by OpenAI. The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. The compute they have can train more/better models than they can, and they have been working on this for longer than OpenAI has (see their keynote in 2017, Chatbot that got the guy fired because he thought it was sentient) Microsoft helps here, but all of those things still exist. Bing is tiny compared to Google. Microsoft will "win" the productivity tools (Teams, Office, etc.) for the same reason Google will win search. Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so.

jurmous 4y ago
Since Microsoft was working internally on the raw search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022, and Google did not show any chat results showing sources. My bet will be that Google won't even show sources below Bard results even a year from now. And this difference alone and with Microsoft already starting the first rollout of Bing Chat, I feel Bing will have gained a lot of marketshare in a year. Bing can only win and Google only lose with the current marketshare numbers.
- motoxpro 4y ago
  I think thats fair but again, it's over an order of magnitude difference. https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share#:~:text=The%20only%20difference%20comes%20in,half%20of%20Bing's%20market%20share https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share....
unoti 4y ago
> The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users. I’m not so sure they have the Datacenter capacity with GPU’s to make that happen overnight, even if they have the software. They have an advantage in the demand side of that equation, but the supply side (datacenters, capacity) is a real challenge not to be overlooked.
- Mountain_Skies 4y ago
  With the current state of international relations and supply chain disruptions continuing to ripple from the pandemic, if I needed to rely on being able to quickly access a large number of GPUs or other microprocessors, I'd be very nervous right now. Not sure Google is even wake enough to see any of this.
lern_too_spel 4y ago
Training is not the issue. Each company already has a trained model that is useful for a wide range of tasks. Inference is the problem. Nobody has the infrastructure to run these models at scale. Until they do, they have to pick and choose the most valuable places to deploy them.

jurmous 4y ago

Microsoft stated in an interview with The Verge that they were working with this new search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022. Months before the release of ChatGPT and the big inflow of data from real users. So this Prometheus model was created with different purposes since it can show sources and can be updated with new information on the fly. So it is quite ahead of ChatGPT. Microsoft is taking it with the direct access of OpenAI tech to the next level.

quaintdev 4y ago

> for fear it would lead to embarrassing misuses It's also difficult to integrate their ad business in chat model