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>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and t

>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) on their own terms and are willing to sacrifice as many Russians as it takes to get it. The world has moved on from that kind of behaviour though, but lots of 60+ yr old Russians are living in a past they'll never get back to and are blithely ruining Russia's future to get there.

luckylion 4y ago
> They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) And to be clear here, "their stuff" is (in their eyes) everything that was once part of the Soviet Union. Most of it is currently out of reach, but not attacking Poland next is a tactical decision acknowledging EU/Nato firepower, it's not because "we don't see a reason to attack a neighbor".
- another2another 4y ago
  Exactly, and that's why most of Putin's vitriol and propaganda is directed against NATO, because it's a real impediment to them taking it all back. It's also interesting to see how strongly the Baltic nations and Poland are pushing to support Ukraine, since they lived long enough under the Soviet heel and they definitely don't want to get back to that. I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.
  - tokai 4y ago
    >I have no idea what's up with Hungary though. The more autocratic a country is the more it is sympathetic to Russia. Autocrats like that autocrats can take what they want.
    - another2another 4y ago
      Good point, fortunately the US still has some strong and effectively functioning democratic institutions otherwise Putin's Trump card would still be paying dividends in the previously ongoing autocrat bromance.
  - luckylion 4y ago
    > I have no idea what's up with Hungary though. I assume it's the same thing that's up with the German far right: they consider themselves in opposition to the EU / Berlin and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. While that's also somewhat true for Poland, Poland likely calculates the risks differently based on their specific history with Russia. They don't want to become as progressive as Germany, but unlike a renewed Russian empire they don't see Western progressiveness as an existential threat to Polish independence.
    - nordsieck 4y ago
      > While that's also somewhat true for Poland, Poland likely calculates the risks differently based on their specific history with Russia. They don't want to become as progressive as Germany, but unlike a renewed Russian empire they don't see Western progressiveness as an existential threat to Polish independence. IMO, another big difference is that they have both a direct border with Russia (Kaliningrad), and a larger border with Belarus - a country that is fine with Russia launch an invasion from their territory. When you're next to a country that is openly talking about reforming the USSR by force, and is actively in the process thereof, it can be pretty scary. In contrast, Hungary is sufficiently far away from Russia that they can afford to focus more energy on more immediate rivals.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    The way I had it explained to me why Hungary support Russia: 1. Leadership is autocratic / non-democratic and thus a natural ally. That's the easy bit, but why does the populous support Russia. 2. Poland and other eastern bloc countries are doing a lot better than Hungary, which makes common folks disaffected. 3. State control of the media is pretty strong, and it blames the west for their problems. There's a similar narrative for Serbia, but historical reasons also play a big role. The politics and history of that region are "interesting".
nordsieck 4y ago
>> Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. > I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. In a technical sense, I can agree with you. The opening weeks of the war showed that Russia ideally wanted to do to Ukraine what the US did the Iraq in 1990-1991. If they had their druthers, they'd conquer the country without damaging any infrastructure. The only trouble is that Russia's military doesn't have that capability. And Russia is perfectly willing to fall back on plan b: use artillery, drones, and missiles to level literally every building in the country as they try to conquer it 1 square meter at a time.
yourapostasy 4y ago
> ...but lots of 60+ yr old Russians are living in a past they'll never get back to and are blithely ruining Russia's future to get there. That sounds like a Russian Federatiom Boomer generation dragging the rest of the nation down with it to rack and ruin for a nostalgic kick. For those on the ground in the Russian Federation or corresponding closely with those on the ground, is support for the war really mostly stemming from that generation and do they possess the kind of sociopolitical leverage as Boomers in the US? It sounds overly simplistic to me to say, "lots of 60+ yr old Russians" are driving the support for the war. I'd be more inclined to subscribe to a description of an elite that control the levers of power and the economy are the drivers, and the general population like in too many nation-states (even the US, since objectively most legislation is passed by and for the elite) is more or less powerless.
- throw-ru-938 4y ago
  Independent polling agrees with you: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/05/2022/62825a8f9a794718a6e8560f/ https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/05/2022/62825a8f9a794718a6e85... And the Russian leadership certainly is gerontocratic: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/01/31/the-old-guard https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/01/31/the-old-guard As for the social leverage, I don't think they have much on the national level. However, I feel the lower-rung govt staff is mostly composed of 50-something women, and these also dominate meetings of homeowner associations. The men are either hard at work or already dead, and the younger people are not numerous and don't have much rights.

luckylion 4y ago

> They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) And to be clear here, "their stuff" is (in their eyes) everything that was once part of the Soviet Union. Most of it is currently out of reach, but not attacking Poland next is a tactical decision acknowledging EU/Nato firepower, it's not because "we don't see a reason to attack a neighbor".

another2another 4y ago
Exactly, and that's why most of Putin's vitriol and propaganda is directed against NATO, because it's a real impediment to them taking it all back. It's also interesting to see how strongly the Baltic nations and Poland are pushing to support Ukraine, since they lived long enough under the Soviet heel and they definitely don't want to get back to that. I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.
- tokai 4y ago
  >I have no idea what's up with Hungary though. The more autocratic a country is the more it is sympathetic to Russia. Autocrats like that autocrats can take what they want.
  - another2another 4y ago
    Good point, fortunately the US still has some strong and effectively functioning democratic institutions otherwise Putin's Trump card would still be paying dividends in the previously ongoing autocrat bromance.
- luckylion 4y ago
  > I have no idea what's up with Hungary though. I assume it's the same thing that's up with the German far right: they consider themselves in opposition to the EU / Berlin and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. While that's also somewhat true for Poland, Poland likely calculates the risks differently based on their specific history with Russia. They don't want to become as progressive as Germany, but unlike a renewed Russian empire they don't see Western progressiveness as an existential threat to Polish independence.
  - nordsieck 4y ago
    > While that's also somewhat true for Poland, Poland likely calculates the risks differently based on their specific history with Russia. They don't want to become as progressive as Germany, but unlike a renewed Russian empire they don't see Western progressiveness as an existential threat to Polish independence. IMO, another big difference is that they have both a direct border with Russia (Kaliningrad), and a larger border with Belarus - a country that is fine with Russia launch an invasion from their territory. When you're next to a country that is openly talking about reforming the USSR by force, and is actively in the process thereof, it can be pretty scary. In contrast, Hungary is sufficiently far away from Russia that they can afford to focus more energy on more immediate rivals.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  The way I had it explained to me why Hungary support Russia: 1. Leadership is autocratic / non-democratic and thus a natural ally. That's the easy bit, but why does the populous support Russia. 2. Poland and other eastern bloc countries are doing a lot better than Hungary, which makes common folks disaffected. 3. State control of the media is pretty strong, and it blames the west for their problems. There's a similar narrative for Serbia, but historical reasons also play a big role. The politics and history of that region are "interesting".

nordsieck 4y ago

>> Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. > I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. In a technical sense, I can agree with you. The opening weeks of the war showed that Russia ideally wanted to do to Ukraine what the US did the Iraq in 1990-1991. If they had their druthers, they'd conquer the country without damaging any infrastructure. The only trouble is that Russia's military doesn't have that capability. And Russia is perfectly willing to fall back on plan b: use artillery, drones, and missiles to level literally every building in the country as they try to conquer it 1 square meter at a time.

yourapostasy 4y ago

> ...but lots of 60+ yr old Russians are living in a past they'll never get back to and are blithely ruining Russia's future to get there. That sounds like a Russian Federatiom Boomer generation dragging the rest of the nation down with it to rack and ruin for a nostalgic kick. For those on the ground in the Russian Federation or corresponding closely with those on the ground, is support for the war really mostly stemming from that generation and do they possess the kind of sociopolitical leverage as Boomers in the US? It sounds overly simplistic to me to say, "lots of 60+ yr old Russians" are driving the support for the war. I'd be more inclined to subscribe to a description of an elite that control the levers of power and the economy are the drivers, and the general population like in too many nation-states (even the US, since objectively most legislation is passed by and for the elite) is more or less powerless.

throw-ru-938 4y ago
Independent polling agrees with you: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/05/2022/62825a8f9a794718a6e8560f/ https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/05/2022/62825a8f9a794718a6e85... And the Russian leadership certainly is gerontocratic: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/01/31/the-old-guard https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/01/31/the-old-guard As for the social leverage, I don't think they have much on the national level. However, I feel the lower-rung govt staff is mostly composed of 50-something women, and these also dominate meetings of homeowner associations. The men are either hard at work or already dead, and the younger people are not numerous and don't have much rights.