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> Russian officials already know that any “negotiation” or treaty signed with Kiev (in fact with the US) is not even worth the paper it is written on, I had hop

> Russian officials already know that any “negotiation” or treaty signed with Kiev (in fact with the US) is not even worth the paper it is written on, I had hoped the Estonian “Foreign Intelligence Service” would have been aware of that. Can you substantiate this? Please provide to specific examples.

dmpk2k 4y ago
There are plenty. Russia is hardly a paragon of honestly, but from the Russian perspective there are plenty of examples to draw from about Western leaders ignoring agreements. The first and most obvious is this: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017... Then comes the withdrawal from various nuclear treaties, the first being this: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti-ballistic-missile-treaty-has-fueled-new-arms-race-pub-85977 https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti... GWB's attempted placement of a missile shield in Poland (ostensibly to defend from Iran) really heated the waters, although Obama ultimately killed it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_complex_in_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... Then Minsk failed, and Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko's statements haven't helped at all. Merkel's is probably most important (Die Zeit has a paywall, so here is a PDF of the article): https://pdfhost.io/v/e0FRLvfzB_Angela_Merkel___Hatten_Sie_gedacht_ich_komme_mit_Pferdeschwanz_ https://pdfhost.io/v/e0FRLvfzB_Angela_Merkel___Hatten_Sie_ge... Most recently for the Russians is probably the seizing of their central bank's assets by the US and EU. I'm not sure how solid the legal rationale at the time was, but either way it happened: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-central-bank.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/us-sanctions-... Neither side trusts the other. At all. So ultimately guns and blood will determine the result.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > The first and most obvious is this... If Russia thinks a verbal assurance from the US SecState to a different country can bind NATO thirty years later as if it were a treaty, they're hopelessly naive. (They're not, of course. They know this is bullshit.)
  - dmpk2k 4y ago
    It was many different leaders. I suggest you actually read the archive document(s). Yes, they're long. Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Remember, we're talking about negotiations, so their opinion matters too, regardless what you or I think about it.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      > It was many different leaders. None of which are empowered to individually and formally bind NATO to anything, let alone privately and verbally, and each to the Soviet Union, which hasn't existed for thirty years. "We're not gonna fuck with you while you're collapsing" was entirely reasonable and intentionally deescalatory at the time; pretending it's somehow a promise not to do anything while Russia moves into Georgia and Ukraine is silly. The Budapest Memorandum, meanwhile, is an actual signed agreement by Russia.
    - mopsi 4y ago
      > Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Nope. It's a PR meme created for 2007 Munich Security Conference where Putin made his famous speech and needes justifications for imperialistic ambitions. Stunning economic growth before 2008 crisis allowed him to build up an army, and there he declared his vision. Nobody talked about such assurance before ca 2006-2007, and the 1997 founding act on mutual relations between NATO and Russia excplicitly says that signatories must "respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents"[1]. Even if we accept the premise that such assurance was given (which Gorbachev denied), then it was given to the USSR, which does not exist anymore. Former parts of that USSR themselves applied for NATO membership. Should their status be bound forever to a non-existing state? Furthermore, this approach is based on disgusting colonial attitude that Russians are a some kind of master race that has the right to decide over everyone else, while ethnically they made up barely half of the population of the USSR. What about the other half? Do they not have the right to determine their future? Are they forever slaves of the ghost of the USSR? [1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm

dmpk2k 4y ago

There are plenty. Russia is hardly a paragon of honestly, but from the Russian perspective there are plenty of examples to draw from about Western leaders ignoring agreements. The first and most obvious is this: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017... Then comes the withdrawal from various nuclear treaties, the first being this: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti-ballistic-missile-treaty-has-fueled-new-arms-race-pub-85977 https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti... GWB's attempted placement of a missile shield in Poland (ostensibly to defend from Iran) really heated the waters, although Obama ultimately killed it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_complex_in_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... Then Minsk failed, and Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko's statements haven't helped at all. Merkel's is probably most important (Die Zeit has a paywall, so here is a PDF of the article): https://pdfhost.io/v/e0FRLvfzB_Angela_Merkel___Hatten_Sie_gedacht_ich_komme_mit_Pferdeschwanz_ https://pdfhost.io/v/e0FRLvfzB_Angela_Merkel___Hatten_Sie_ge... Most recently for the Russians is probably the seizing of their central bank's assets by the US and EU. I'm not sure how solid the legal rationale at the time was, but either way it happened: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-central-bank.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/us/politics/us-sanctions-... Neither side trusts the other. At all. So ultimately guns and blood will determine the result.

ceejayoz 4y ago
> The first and most obvious is this... If Russia thinks a verbal assurance from the US SecState to a different country can bind NATO thirty years later as if it were a treaty, they're hopelessly naive. (They're not, of course. They know this is bullshit.)
- dmpk2k 4y ago
  It was many different leaders. I suggest you actually read the archive document(s). Yes, they're long. Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Remember, we're talking about negotiations, so their opinion matters too, regardless what you or I think about it.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > It was many different leaders. None of which are empowered to individually and formally bind NATO to anything, let alone privately and verbally, and each to the Soviet Union, which hasn't existed for thirty years. "We're not gonna fuck with you while you're collapsing" was entirely reasonable and intentionally deescalatory at the time; pretending it's somehow a promise not to do anything while Russia moves into Georgia and Ukraine is silly. The Budapest Memorandum, meanwhile, is an actual signed agreement by Russia.
  - mopsi 4y ago
    > Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Nope. It's a PR meme created for 2007 Munich Security Conference where Putin made his famous speech and needes justifications for imperialistic ambitions. Stunning economic growth before 2008 crisis allowed him to build up an army, and there he declared his vision. Nobody talked about such assurance before ca 2006-2007, and the 1997 founding act on mutual relations between NATO and Russia excplicitly says that signatories must "respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents"[1]. Even if we accept the premise that such assurance was given (which Gorbachev denied), then it was given to the USSR, which does not exist anymore. Former parts of that USSR themselves applied for NATO membership. Should their status be bound forever to a non-existing state? Furthermore, this approach is based on disgusting colonial attitude that Russians are a some kind of master race that has the right to decide over everyone else, while ethnically they made up barely half of the population of the USSR. What about the other half? Do they not have the right to determine their future? Are they forever slaves of the ghost of the USSR? [1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm