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The problem with lists of major accidents is they aren't necessarily a predictor of future accidents, and in some cases may be the reverse. An airline suffering
by detrites 4y ago
The problem with lists of major accidents is they aren't necessarily a predictor of future accidents, and in some cases may be the reverse. An airline suffering a major accident is likely to lead to a significant safety overhaul.
What's needed is a service that tracks near misses or mistakes such as in this post, and their trend over time for each airline. An increase in frequency for a particular airline might well be usefully predictive.
- kqr 4y ago> The problem with lists of major accidents is they aren't necessarily a predictor of future accidents, and in some cases may be the reverse. An airline suffering a major accident is likely to lead to a significant safety overhaul. This should be a somewhat testable proposition, right? Does time since accident increase or decrease the probability of next accident? (Practically, plotting the distribution of inter-accident durations and seeing if the tail falls off exponentially, slower, or faster.)