4 ms·

New grads will probably be fine, most of them. But IMO we have indeed produced too many programmers. But its the older ICs, 40+, that are going to get cast ou

New grads will probably be fine, most of them. But IMO we have indeed produced too many programmers. But its the older ICs, 40+, that are going to get cast out, not the new grads. Older ones are the expensive ones with families and other inconvenient stuff employers dislike. First to go will be the ones that went full remote. Overtime if we continue to overproduce CS grads the defacto age limit will drop lower and lower. So maybe in a decade or two there won't be many ICs over 30 (obviously some will survive). At least that is how it seems to this unemployed near-50 programmer. My job leads started to dry up at around 41 or 42. Now its crickets. LinkedIn telling me I appeared in 2 search this week, if I get that message at all.

coolbreezetft22 4y ago
This is my fear too but does this apply to programming jobs at "non-tech" companies? Past few years it was very difficult for these businesses to hire software engineers because they couldn't compete with faang and hot tech startups. Now that those places are laying off and freezing hiring the time has come for non-tech companies to finally get people?
- trashface 4y ago
  I would expect down-tier companies to still be hiring and at higher age thresholds, but in general too many programmers still applies. There will be openings but they will be low pay, probably <= median income. A Pareto principle situation where 80% of the comp is earned by 20% of the programmers (those at big tech), which we already sort of have and will probably get worse. Of course this is just my generally pessimistic viewpoint. Could be wrong, I'd note however that I used to be more optimistic. 10 years or so ago, I did not expect the industry and my personal career to be in the sorry state they are in now. If I had been _less_ optimistic I would have made better choices, purely to mitigate risk. So I'm paying for that misplaced optimism now.

coolbreezetft22 4y ago

This is my fear too but does this apply to programming jobs at "non-tech" companies? Past few years it was very difficult for these businesses to hire software engineers because they couldn't compete with faang and hot tech startups. Now that those places are laying off and freezing hiring the time has come for non-tech companies to finally get people?

trashface 4y ago
I would expect down-tier companies to still be hiring and at higher age thresholds, but in general too many programmers still applies. There will be openings but they will be low pay, probably <= median income. A Pareto principle situation where 80% of the comp is earned by 20% of the programmers (those at big tech), which we already sort of have and will probably get worse. Of course this is just my generally pessimistic viewpoint. Could be wrong, I'd note however that I used to be more optimistic. 10 years or so ago, I did not expect the industry and my personal career to be in the sorry state they are in now. If I had been _less_ optimistic I would have made better choices, purely to mitigate risk. So I'm paying for that misplaced optimism now.