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How is Google sleeping on AI? By all accounts, they have had a better LLM than ChatGPT (Lamda), years in advance of ChatGPT. Google is hampered in that they ha
by foobazgt 4y ago
How is Google sleeping on AI? By all accounts, they have had a better LLM than ChatGPT (Lamda), years in advance of ChatGPT.
Google is hampered in that they have a lot to risk. They're a big lawsuit target that can't go around wildly violating copyright and subjecting the world to dangerously, convincingly confident BS.
But make no mistake - they are world leaders in AI, they have their best engineers working on it, they beat everyone to the punch with a high performing LLM amongst a mountain of other AI advances, and they recognize the threat to their business model. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.
- echelon 4y agoIt doesn't matter how good they are or how much institutional knowledge they've acquired. 50% of their revenue stream is being existentially threatened, and nothing will stick around if that vanishes. Talent will be plucked, internal projects will wither on the vine, and the velocity of the entire company will seize up. It doesn't matter that Google was the Bell Labs of its time or that it was first and best at AI. Bell Labs also got sunk by disruption despite being the best in the world. Google was also best at cloud once upon a time (Borg/k8s/spanner/...), and you saw what happened there. This is looking like a repeat.
- foobazgt 4y agoLet's agree to come back here in 12 months. If Google is dead, I'll buy you (and myself) several beers.
- echelon 4y agoThey won't be dead, but pay attention to cash flows and market cap. I'll also give it 24-36 months to play out. It's too early for me to start buying puts, but I'm very eager to start. It's not just my investment thesis, but my worldview.