4 ms·

Might become the largest case of the innovator's dilemma ever.

siva7 4y ago
This has to be the best case of Innovator's dilemma i've ever witnessed. Even more tragic when thinking that literally every Manager at Google knows this pattern or book.
- vlovich123 4y ago
  I think the Innovator's Dilemma is an inexorable part of a large middle management bureaucracy. The management and product orgs look to isolate themselves from risky bottom-up innovation because they want to avoid things that risk the brand / aren't on message. Similarly, the lower rungs are focusing on demonstrable "impact" and there's no rewards for experiments that fail which means any "risks" taken are all safe hedges that are in-line with incremental bets that can't disrupt the status quo. Therefore the only "innovation" at large companies is that which is allow-listed is that by the top of the management chain. That being said, it's still too early to tell here. Microsoft is releasing "something". Whether it's any good or whether Google will respond too late is too hard to tell. AFAIK, there's published research that shows that Google's LLM is actually significantly better than ChatGPT, so is it going to take them all that long to productize it ("long" in terms of having a significant impact on market share)?
huijzer 4y ago
It sounds more like Counter-Positioning (details, e.g. [1]) by OpenAI/Microsoft. Google cannot compete or it would attack its own main income stream and risk losing income very fast. But if they wait, then people learn to work with Microsoft/OpenAI which would hurt them in the long run. Counter-Positioning creates an impossible situation which brought many giants down including Blockbuster. [1]: https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/ https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/
- mrtksn 4y ago
  It would suck for Google to make $20B from AI Chat instead of making $160B in Search, it wouldn't suck for Microsoft to make $20B from AI Chat instead $2B in Search. If the AI assistants live to the promise, Google is screwed even if they make the best and most popular one.
  - ryloric 4y ago
    Yeah. It won't change your logic but they made around $12B I think. Even if they don't make a cent from AI Chat, it's still worth burning money on if nothing but to dethrone google as the default choice from the public's mind.

This has to be the best case of Innovator's dilemma i've ever witnessed. Even more tragic when thinking that literally every Manager at Google knows this pattern or book.

vlovich123 4y ago
I think the Innovator's Dilemma is an inexorable part of a large middle management bureaucracy. The management and product orgs look to isolate themselves from risky bottom-up innovation because they want to avoid things that risk the brand / aren't on message. Similarly, the lower rungs are focusing on demonstrable "impact" and there's no rewards for experiments that fail which means any "risks" taken are all safe hedges that are in-line with incremental bets that can't disrupt the status quo. Therefore the only "innovation" at large companies is that which is allow-listed is that by the top of the management chain. That being said, it's still too early to tell here. Microsoft is releasing "something". Whether it's any good or whether Google will respond too late is too hard to tell. AFAIK, there's published research that shows that Google's LLM is actually significantly better than ChatGPT, so is it going to take them all that long to productize it ("long" in terms of having a significant impact on market share)?

huijzer 4y ago

It sounds more like Counter-Positioning (details, e.g. [1]) by OpenAI/Microsoft. Google cannot compete or it would attack its own main income stream and risk losing income very fast. But if they wait, then people learn to work with Microsoft/OpenAI which would hurt them in the long run. Counter-Positioning creates an impossible situation which brought many giants down including Blockbuster. [1]: https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/ https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/

mrtksn 4y ago
It would suck for Google to make $20B from AI Chat instead of making $160B in Search, it wouldn't suck for Microsoft to make $20B from AI Chat instead $2B in Search. If the AI assistants live to the promise, Google is screwed even if they make the best and most popular one.
- ryloric 4y ago
  Yeah. It won't change your logic but they made around $12B I think. Even if they don't make a cent from AI Chat, it's still worth burning money on if nothing but to dethrone google as the default choice from the public's mind.