I've seen this happen now 3 times, and each time the waterline moves up some more. The numbers usually quoted are also for the "public Fediverse" and don't incl

I've seen this happen now 3 times, and each time the waterline moves up some more. The numbers usually quoted are also for the "public Fediverse" and don't include platforms like Gab or Truth.social that use ActivityPub but don't federate. I think Fediverse is here to stay. But because of its ethos, it's highly unlikely to be a majoritarian platform, and that's kind of its function, to be an alternative place for non-corporate social networking. It's much more likely that if Twitter fell that another heavily-funded corporate platform would replace it, not the Fediverse. It might even use ActivityPub and federate, but it will have ads, and an algo feed, and more or less work like Twitter. This is what most people really want.