4 ms·
This is so true. Heavy-tailed distributions and extreme value theory [1,2] should be taught more widely. The normal distribution is just a very particular case
by nextos 4y ago
This is so true. Heavy-tailed distributions and extreme value theory [1,2] should be taught more widely.
The normal distribution is just a very particular case of the generalized CLT.
For example, some drug effects are heavy-tailed, but safety trials are often ignoring this.
[1] https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2013-SIGMETRICS-heavytails.pdf https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2013-SIGM...
[2] https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/book-05-11.pdf https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/book-05-1...
- buryat 4y ago> some drug effects are heavy-tailed where can i read about this? curious
- cosmojg 4y agoGot any sources which discuss the heavy-tailed effects of drugs and how they're ignored by safety trials? I'd love to read more!
- nextos 4y agoI don't have references with me right now, but there are quite a few reputable studies that have found effects to be log-normal. Log-normal is a quite nasty heavy-tailed distribution as it's easy to take it for normal if you have small sample sizes. This has tricked the safety calculations of a few trials. I don't think it's too worrying or generalized, just some area to improve.