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nothing in your comment singles out "tech CEOs" which was the thesis. I'll single them out here: in good times and in bad, tech has a beta of about 2, so we exp
by fsckboy 4y ago
nothing in your comment singles out "tech CEOs" which was the thesis. I'll single them out here: in good times and in bad, tech has a beta of about 2, so we expect techs to rise more and drop more.
- Apocryphon 4y agoI'm not singling out CEOs but I'm just saying someone at the top screwed up in overestimating the market. At the very least, like this comment suggests, the finance guys. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 As Apple and other companies who didn't overhire go to show, you don't always have to buy into overstimulus.
- fsckboy 4y agothe market can be misestimated without any screw up. it's hard not to not screw up, the information you need is too diffuse. How will the Apple CEO predict how many new cars will be sold next year when the auto CEOs don't know? Apple needs to know because how many new cars will be sold is a really indicator of how much working people have as disposable income, and especially autoworkers, and if you can afford a new car, you'll probably upgrade your cellphone. (and so on for other sectors, agriculture, insurance, etc.) It's amazing how well the world economy works most of the time given that everybody is flying by the seat of their pants. if one tech CEO screws up (Zuckerberg with Meta?) you can see it. But when the whole sector screws up it's a pretty good sign something macro is taking place.
- bitL 4y agoMicrosoft - 5yr Beta 0.92 Google - 5yr Beta 1.09 Amazon - 5yr Beta 1.22 Meta - 5yr Beta 1.22 Apple - 5yr Beta 1.28 Not even close to Beta 2.0, more like 1.0, i.e. just copying market trends. Moreover, from all those companies, only Apple, "the worst" of them beta-wise, didn't have layoffs.