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> Tech CEOs screwed up: Now laid-off employees are paying the price tech ceo's didn't screw up. the current economic turmoil has been caused by overstimulus in

> Tech CEOs screwed up: Now laid-off employees are paying the price tech ceo's didn't screw up. the current economic turmoil has been caused by overstimulus in the context of the covid lockdown and related supply chain knock-on effects, and subsequent over-easing of the money supply. Everybody knows this already. And the stock market mini-bubble preceding the recent dip should have been obvious to everybody (me included), because why with a pandemic lockdown would we all think that it made sense for the stock market to soar so high?

Apocryphon 4y ago
They, or the shareholders driving exec policy, screwed up in buying into this abnormal environment rather than considering that eventually there might be a massive pullback from the massive money-printing.
- fsckboy 4y ago
  nothing in your comment singles out "tech CEOs" which was the thesis. I'll single them out here: in good times and in bad, tech has a beta of about 2, so we expect techs to rise more and drop more.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    I'm not singling out CEOs but I'm just saying someone at the top screwed up in overestimating the market. At the very least, like this comment suggests, the finance guys. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 As Apple and other companies who didn't overhire go to show, you don't always have to buy into overstimulus.
    - fsckboy 4y ago
      the market can be misestimated without any screw up. it's hard not to not screw up, the information you need is too diffuse. How will the Apple CEO predict how many new cars will be sold next year when the auto CEOs don't know? Apple needs to know because how many new cars will be sold is a really indicator of how much working people have as disposable income, and especially autoworkers, and if you can afford a new car, you'll probably upgrade your cellphone. (and so on for other sectors, agriculture, insurance, etc.) It's amazing how well the world economy works most of the time given that everybody is flying by the seat of their pants. if one tech CEO screws up (Zuckerberg with Meta?) you can see it. But when the whole sector screws up it's a pretty good sign something macro is taking place.
  - bitL 4y ago
    Microsoft - 5yr Beta 0.92 Google - 5yr Beta 1.09 Amazon - 5yr Beta 1.22 Meta - 5yr Beta 1.22 Apple - 5yr Beta 1.28 Not even close to Beta 2.0, more like 1.0, i.e. just copying market trends. Moreover, from all those companies, only Apple, "the worst" of them beta-wise, didn't have layoffs.
eschaton 4y ago
No it hasn’t. The current economic turmoil has been caused by companies using the stimulus as something they can blame inflation on when they raise prices even though they’re actually increasing their margins. You can trivially see this by looking at the financial reports of public companies that have raised their prices: If they were raising prices to cover increased costs, their margins wouldn’t change; in reality, lost of companies have taken the opportunity to increase their margins. The whole “Many Americans got an extra few grand in 2020 and that caused inflation!!!” narrative is as fake as the “Organized shoplifting is causing retailers to lose a huge amount of money!!!” fake story and the “Our cities are burned out hulks because we defunded the police!!!” fake story and the “People aren’t applying for these open jobs because they’re lazy and can get paid to sit around!!!” fake story. Every one of these stories serves a particular purpose for which it was designed, planted, and amplified by specific groups of people with specific policy objectives.
- camillomiller 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - shyn3 4y ago
    Printer goes brr and people are in shock they are losing jobs. Should have held the printers in check.
    - eschaton 4y ago
      If the effects of the stimulus were so dire how come publicly traded companies are continuing to post record profits? You need to account for this in your model if you want to be taken seriously by anyone who isn’t a Mises goldbug.
      - shyn3 4y ago
        That's exactly why. If the printer didn't print ther ewouldn't be money to circulate. Maybe the businesses that are dying now would have died earlier. Maybe America shouldn't be allowed to print or else blow them up like Libya.

Apocryphon 4y ago

They, or the shareholders driving exec policy, screwed up in buying into this abnormal environment rather than considering that eventually there might be a massive pullback from the massive money-printing.

fsckboy 4y ago
nothing in your comment singles out "tech CEOs" which was the thesis. I'll single them out here: in good times and in bad, tech has a beta of about 2, so we expect techs to rise more and drop more.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  I'm not singling out CEOs but I'm just saying someone at the top screwed up in overestimating the market. At the very least, like this comment suggests, the finance guys. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34679892 As Apple and other companies who didn't overhire go to show, you don't always have to buy into overstimulus.
  - fsckboy 4y ago
    the market can be misestimated without any screw up. it's hard not to not screw up, the information you need is too diffuse. How will the Apple CEO predict how many new cars will be sold next year when the auto CEOs don't know? Apple needs to know because how many new cars will be sold is a really indicator of how much working people have as disposable income, and especially autoworkers, and if you can afford a new car, you'll probably upgrade your cellphone. (and so on for other sectors, agriculture, insurance, etc.) It's amazing how well the world economy works most of the time given that everybody is flying by the seat of their pants. if one tech CEO screws up (Zuckerberg with Meta?) you can see it. But when the whole sector screws up it's a pretty good sign something macro is taking place.
- bitL 4y ago
  Microsoft - 5yr Beta 0.92 Google - 5yr Beta 1.09 Amazon - 5yr Beta 1.22 Meta - 5yr Beta 1.22 Apple - 5yr Beta 1.28 Not even close to Beta 2.0, more like 1.0, i.e. just copying market trends. Moreover, from all those companies, only Apple, "the worst" of them beta-wise, didn't have layoffs.

eschaton 4y ago

No it hasn’t. The current economic turmoil has been caused by companies using the stimulus as something they can blame inflation on when they raise prices even though they’re actually increasing their margins. You can trivially see this by looking at the financial reports of public companies that have raised their prices: If they were raising prices to cover increased costs, their margins wouldn’t change; in reality, lost of companies have taken the opportunity to increase their margins. The whole “Many Americans got an extra few grand in 2020 and that caused inflation!!!” narrative is as fake as the “Organized shoplifting is causing retailers to lose a huge amount of money!!!” fake story and the “Our cities are burned out hulks because we defunded the police!!!” fake story and the “People aren’t applying for these open jobs because they’re lazy and can get paid to sit around!!!” fake story. Every one of these stories serves a particular purpose for which it was designed, planted, and amplified by specific groups of people with specific policy objectives.

camillomiller 4y ago
[flagged]
- shyn3 4y ago
  Printer goes brr and people are in shock they are losing jobs. Should have held the printers in check.
  - eschaton 4y ago
    If the effects of the stimulus were so dire how come publicly traded companies are continuing to post record profits? You need to account for this in your model if you want to be taken seriously by anyone who isn’t a Mises goldbug.
    - shyn3 4y ago
      That's exactly why. If the printer didn't print ther ewouldn't be money to circulate. Maybe the businesses that are dying now would have died earlier. Maybe America shouldn't be allowed to print or else blow them up like Libya.