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I'm sure that there has been comprehensive analysis in the Pentagon and State Dept. As for the prospects of war with China: Given the current context with Russi

I'm sure that there has been comprehensive analysis in the Pentagon and State Dept. As for the prospects of war with China: Given the current context with Russia's war on Ukraine, how does war with China not escalate into WWIII pretty quickly? I don't think either side wants that - it would completely decimate both economies were it to happen. China would lose the US market and the US would lose a lot of Chinese products that are necessary (we're not de-globalized yet)

moose_man 4y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion "In The Great Illusion, Angell's primary thesis was, in the words of historian James Joll, that "the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous."[4] For that reason, a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long.[5] He argued that war was economically and socially irrational[6] and that war between industrial countries was futile because conquest did not pay. J. D. B. Miller writes: "The 'Great Illusion' was that nations gained by armed confrontation, militarism, war, or conquest."[7] This book was published in 1909, it was wildly popular.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  Could anything other than China invading Taiwan precipitate war between the US and China? I doubt it (though sure, 'accidents' could happen given the current level of bellicosity). However, if China does invade Taiwan the whole economic argument seems to go off the table from the US perspective because Taiwan's fabs crank out the majority of the world's most advanced chips - ie. that act of invading Taiwan would in itself do a lot of damage to the world economy were it to happen within the next couple of years (before other fabs currently under construction come on line in 2 or 3 years). But then again, China has to know the stakes and the response (both economic and military) that would come to bear against them should they invade Taiwan.
  - moose_man 4y ago
    In a crisis spiral into war, I think the last thing that will be considered are chips or economics. It's often emotion that pushes everything over the edge. It's not a logical process. Nationalism is a force that operates on its own set of rules.

moose_man 4y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion "In The Great Illusion, Angell's primary thesis was, in the words of historian James Joll, that "the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous."[4] For that reason, a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long.[5] He argued that war was economically and socially irrational[6] and that war between industrial countries was futile because conquest did not pay. J. D. B. Miller writes: "The 'Great Illusion' was that nations gained by armed confrontation, militarism, war, or conquest."[7] This book was published in 1909, it was wildly popular.

UncleOxidant 4y ago
Could anything other than China invading Taiwan precipitate war between the US and China? I doubt it (though sure, 'accidents' could happen given the current level of bellicosity). However, if China does invade Taiwan the whole economic argument seems to go off the table from the US perspective because Taiwan's fabs crank out the majority of the world's most advanced chips - ie. that act of invading Taiwan would in itself do a lot of damage to the world economy were it to happen within the next couple of years (before other fabs currently under construction come on line in 2 or 3 years). But then again, China has to know the stakes and the response (both economic and military) that would come to bear against them should they invade Taiwan.
- moose_man 4y ago
  In a crisis spiral into war, I think the last thing that will be considered are chips or economics. It's often emotion that pushes everything over the edge. It's not a logical process. Nationalism is a force that operates on its own set of rules.