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Why was it a good risk? The writing on the wall that tech was overinflated, that TC was insane, that the money printing was going to have a severe correction ev

Why was it a good risk? The writing on the wall that tech was overinflated, that TC was insane, that the money printing was going to have a severe correction eventually. It should have been common wisdom that it was a temporary state of affairs because the growth in tech was not built on irreversible trends. Lockdown would end eventually. All of those food delivery apps, at the very least, could not expect exponential growth once restaurants opened again.

jedberg 4y ago
> The writing on the wall that tech was overinflated, that TC was insane, that the money printing was going to have a severe correction eventually. Sure, and then you lay people off when that correction comes in. In the meantime you're hiring the best people and having them do great work. And when they layoffs come, maybe some of them stay. > All of those food delivery apps, at the very least, could not expect exponential growth once restaurants opened again. Sure, but if they didn't build market share during the pandemic, they would never catch up afterwards. When the market is on fire, you need to ride the rocket. You always know that you have layoffs in your back pocket for when the market cools. It's not like these layoffs should be a surprise to anyone -- it happens after every hot market. Sure it absolutely sucks for those that are affected by it, I know because it happened to me in 2001. Barely got through it. But it's not a big surprise.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  It is a big surprise because tech was in its own superheated bubble for about fifteen years ago and human beings have short memories. So perhaps that's why Warren Buffett's dictum of being fearful when others are greedy is so important to remember, even in greedy times. But 1) it seems rather disingenuous for companies to posture one way and then pull the rug under their workforce who are being sacrificed in the name of a cooling market, and 2) perhaps companies should consider other ways to pursue profitability without massive layoff sprees?

jedberg 4y ago

> The writing on the wall that tech was overinflated, that TC was insane, that the money printing was going to have a severe correction eventually. Sure, and then you lay people off when that correction comes in. In the meantime you're hiring the best people and having them do great work. And when they layoffs come, maybe some of them stay. > All of those food delivery apps, at the very least, could not expect exponential growth once restaurants opened again. Sure, but if they didn't build market share during the pandemic, they would never catch up afterwards. When the market is on fire, you need to ride the rocket. You always know that you have layoffs in your back pocket for when the market cools. It's not like these layoffs should be a surprise to anyone -- it happens after every hot market. Sure it absolutely sucks for those that are affected by it, I know because it happened to me in 2001. Barely got through it. But it's not a big surprise.

Apocryphon 4y ago
It is a big surprise because tech was in its own superheated bubble for about fifteen years ago and human beings have short memories. So perhaps that's why Warren Buffett's dictum of being fearful when others are greedy is so important to remember, even in greedy times. But 1) it seems rather disingenuous for companies to posture one way and then pull the rug under their workforce who are being sacrificed in the name of a cooling market, and 2) perhaps companies should consider other ways to pursue profitability without massive layoff sprees?