3 ms·

Not when the downsides are unbalanced. If the future does not come to pass and you acted on it, you have to lay-off 10% of your workforce. If the future does co

Not when the downsides are unbalanced. If the future does not come to pass and you acted on it, you have to lay-off 10% of your workforce. If the future does come to pass and you didn’t act on it, other companies that did act on it eat your lunch and you may end up with many more people losing jobs than just 10%. So the question is if there should be truly zero level of faith in economic predictions, or if there statistically enough truth there for it to be worth steering towards the options with the best upside/downside ratio. Ultimately CEOs of large companies are paid tons of money to be the person responsible for the company direction, so holding them responsible for making a wrong decision is fine. Just wanted to say that while hindsight is 20/20, it’s not necessarily the case that it was a poor decision in the moment when sometimes you have to play the odds.

Apocryphon 4y ago
> If the future does not come to pass and you acted on it, you have to lay-off 10% of your workforce. If the future does come to pass and you didn’t act on it, other companies that did act on it eat your lunch and you may end up with many more people losing jobs than just 10%. These hypotheticals are way too favorable towards all of the non-Apple tech companies that gorged themselves during the irrational exuberance of the past two years. Since when was Google or Meta in danger of being outcompeted by a rival company who overhired to eat their lunch, rather than by their own mistakes? Were all of these overhired personnel really being put on vital projects necessary for the survival of these companies? Perhaps some companies this analysis held true. But in most cases it seems just like a reactionary keeping up with the Joneses overhiring spree. Companies saw others doing it, and they imitated, not out of some sound financial policy.
SantalBlush 4y ago
You are absolutely correct. No economic prediction is perfectly accurate, therefore they are always at least somewhat inaccurate. So calling them inaccurate is a truism. In reality, some predictions are more valuable than others, based on their evidence, methodology, etc. Moreover, it doesn't pay to be a hero on Wall Street. Like you hint at here, it's much safer to go with the crowd and be wrong than to go against the crowd and be wrong. That's just a fact of life in business.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  Apple not overhiring isn't paying off for Tim Cook personally in terms of compensation terms, but seems to be paying off for that company on Wall Street.

Apocryphon 4y ago

> If the future does not come to pass and you acted on it, you have to lay-off 10% of your workforce. If the future does come to pass and you didn’t act on it, other companies that did act on it eat your lunch and you may end up with many more people losing jobs than just 10%. These hypotheticals are way too favorable towards all of the non-Apple tech companies that gorged themselves during the irrational exuberance of the past two years. Since when was Google or Meta in danger of being outcompeted by a rival company who overhired to eat their lunch, rather than by their own mistakes? Were all of these overhired personnel really being put on vital projects necessary for the survival of these companies? Perhaps some companies this analysis held true. But in most cases it seems just like a reactionary keeping up with the Joneses overhiring spree. Companies saw others doing it, and they imitated, not out of some sound financial policy.

SantalBlush 4y ago

You are absolutely correct. No economic prediction is perfectly accurate, therefore they are always at least somewhat inaccurate. So calling them inaccurate is a truism. In reality, some predictions are more valuable than others, based on their evidence, methodology, etc. Moreover, it doesn't pay to be a hero on Wall Street. Like you hint at here, it's much safer to go with the crowd and be wrong than to go against the crowd and be wrong. That's just a fact of life in business.

Apocryphon 4y ago
Apple not overhiring isn't paying off for Tim Cook personally in terms of compensation terms, but seems to be paying off for that company on Wall Street.