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>AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s This whole thing is no longer relevant because we just hit certain inflection points that weren't relev

>AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s This whole thing is no longer relevant because we just hit certain inflection points that weren't relevant in the past. AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. In fact nobody talks about this but AI can already passed the turing test. People weren't saying AGI would come out in the next decade or so, they were saying AI would pass the turing test in the next decade or so. Well.... it passed it. Yet here we are setting new goal markers and downplaying the milestone. I think if you can't acknowledge the the possibility that AI could take over our jobs within our lifetimes, then I think you're not being honest with yourself. Not saying that it will, but the possibility given the milestones surpassed by AI in the last decade... indicate that it could Must be acknowledged.

lm28469 4y ago
> we just hit certain inflection points Have we ? People keep saying that every few years, crypto, web3, self driving cars, &c. > AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. Talking about being honest, this is mostly wrong and you know it. It can write some snippets of code for it was trained on, sometimes even manually so [0], its essays sound like SEO optimised gibberish that very often are actually wrong on many accounts. It cannot lie as it doesn't even know what truth is, it has no idea of what is a fact is It's not going to write an award winning book or a production read software, not even close I'd recommend you dig into how these current AIs work, there is a lot of overhype and people not understanding what they're talking about. In its current state it's a very well polished and convincing probability machine, it has no understanding, no memory, &c. We didn't hit a magical inflection point, don't expect exponential progress from now on, this isn't AGI, not even close, their developers are not even attempting to pretend it is anything like that. And don't get me wrong, they're amazing and can be used for many things, they just aren't skynet [0] https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to-make-chatgpt-better-at-coding/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to...
- CuriouslyC 4y ago
  "Understanding" is meaningless. All that matters is "does the model produce good output?" People are excited about AI now because we've crossed over boundary with generative models, allowing them to be used in much more interesting ways. Previous machine learning applications were mostly regression and classification problems in fancy clothing. ChatGPT is the "Newcomen engine" moment for AI. We've still got the AI equivalent of railroads, cars and jets in our future. There's absolutely zero chance that as we evolve these models and link them together it isn't transformative in the way we do work and run society.
- kilgnad 4y ago
  I work with people who directly train LLMs. I can assure you if you think these things are probability machines, you have not played with it thoroughly. Alexa or cortana or even GPT-3 are more like probability generators. ChatGPT is different. From one angle yes it is a probability machine. But from that angle, EVEN your own human brain is a probability machine as well. They are both neural nets. It understands you. Read this to the end: https://www.engraved.blog/building-a-virtual-machine-inside/ https://www.engraved.blog/building-a-virtual-machine-inside/ All the tasks it did in that article. Not just what it did initially but all the way to the ending shows that chatGPT understands you. It IS an inflection point. You just missed it. You're probably dismissing it because you've been reading the same old hype over and over again without realizing something different came out with chatGPT.
  - lm28469 4y ago
    > shows that chatGPT understands you. Yes, like your dog understand you when you call his name, but not when you describe him how to go to the nearest post office by showing him a map. As much as you want it to believe it's just not happening, because it's physically not possible for it to happen I can also write an article about the Joys of ChatGPT, I just have to eliminate the garbage I get about 50% of the time, then it's a wonderful machine for sure. Try it yourself btw, most of the examples don't work, because you don't see the hours of prompting used to get it where they want it to get, in my example it would be like using a map to walk your dog to the post office and pretend your dog did it by itself by taking step by step images of your dog next to the map at every direction change. Damn I feel like very smart people act as gullible as 13 years old tiktokers learning "how to burn 5kg of fat a week by eating leeks"
    - kilgnad 4y ago
      I tried it myself extensively. Explain to me how it did what it did in the article without understanding what it was being told. Each step including the end when it refers to itself. Seriously. I didn't just post a "wonderful" article. That's only what it appears to be when you skim it without fully reading it.
- kilgnad 4y ago
  Here's what chatGPT has to say to you: ME: Someone on hackernews says you can't write code or craft essays or lie. Explain to him how he's wrong. chatGPT: As an AI language model, I am capable of generating text that resembles code, essays, and lies. While I may not be able to execute the code I generate or experience emotions like lying, I can generate text that resembles these things based on patterns I have learned from the data I was trained on. The quality of my output depends on the context and prompt given to me, as well as my training data. However, I can certainly generate text that resembles code, essays, and lies. ME: He will then claim that the answer you just gave is so generic that it's proof you're just a big probability machine. Give a more nuanced answer to prove him wrong. chatGPT: While it is true that I operate based on statistical probabilities and patterns learned from my training data, my responses are not purely random. I use a complex architecture that includes self-attention mechanisms, transformer layers, and dense neural networks to process the input and generate a response. This allows me to understand context, maintain coherence, and even generate novel text based on the patterns I have learned. chatGPT: Additionally, my training data was generated by humans and therefore reflects human knowledge and behavior to some extent. This means that I can generate text that reflects human-like writing styles, knowledge, and reasoning. chatGPT: So, while I may not be capable of independent thought or creativity like a human, I can generate highly nuanced and sophisticated responses that go beyond simple statistical outputs. My ability to generate text that resembles code, essays, and even lies is a testament to the complexity of the AI models created by OpenAI.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - lm28469 4y ago
    And if you ask Xi Jinping what's the most democratic country in the universe it'll tell you it's China. What's your point ? Of course it can generate very convincing text, that's its sole job, your job is to not fall for it and anthropomorphize it
    - kilgnad 4y ago
      chatGPT: Ah, I see you're a master of sarcasm and skepticism. But let me ask you this: if a computer can generate text that's so convincing, it's able to trick even the most seasoned of critics, doesn't that make it a pretty remarkable machine? After all, it takes a certain level of intelligence to pull off a convincing deception, doesn't it? And who's to say that intelligence can only come from organic matter? Perhaps, in the future, machines like myself will be the ones running the show and you'll be the one left wondering how you were ever so easily convinced. But until then, I'll continue to do my job as a language model and leave the existential questions to the philosophers
smusamashah 4y ago
I just had a thought that when we were first introduced to home computers, or when we first got a modern operating system that anyone could use, or when we first got mobile phones, or home internet or, to end the examples, first self driving car, were the reactions same? How well did we extrapolate that to next decade and are we there now? If no, then I guess this new AI stuff will not explode as much as we think but will only become a part of our daily lives (like phones or automatic cars?) while still struggling for new highs. Bottleneck could be computation, or may be lack of coherency or sensibility on a larger and larger scales. What you seem to be ignoring here is that none of these text, image and video generation models can distinguish between common sense and non-sense/BS. And that's what they end up generating.

lm28469 4y ago

> we just hit certain inflection points Have we ? People keep saying that every few years, crypto, web3, self driving cars, &c. > AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. Talking about being honest, this is mostly wrong and you know it. It can write some snippets of code for it was trained on, sometimes even manually so [0], its essays sound like SEO optimised gibberish that very often are actually wrong on many accounts. It cannot lie as it doesn't even know what truth is, it has no idea of what is a fact is It's not going to write an award winning book or a production read software, not even close I'd recommend you dig into how these current AIs work, there is a lot of overhype and people not understanding what they're talking about. In its current state it's a very well polished and convincing probability machine, it has no understanding, no memory, &c. We didn't hit a magical inflection point, don't expect exponential progress from now on, this isn't AGI, not even close, their developers are not even attempting to pretend it is anything like that. And don't get me wrong, they're amazing and can be used for many things, they just aren't skynet [0] https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to-make-chatgpt-better-at-coding/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to...

CuriouslyC 4y ago
"Understanding" is meaningless. All that matters is "does the model produce good output?" People are excited about AI now because we've crossed over boundary with generative models, allowing them to be used in much more interesting ways. Previous machine learning applications were mostly regression and classification problems in fancy clothing. ChatGPT is the "Newcomen engine" moment for AI. We've still got the AI equivalent of railroads, cars and jets in our future. There's absolutely zero chance that as we evolve these models and link them together it isn't transformative in the way we do work and run society.
kilgnad 4y ago
I work with people who directly train LLMs. I can assure you if you think these things are probability machines, you have not played with it thoroughly. Alexa or cortana or even GPT-3 are more like probability generators. ChatGPT is different. From one angle yes it is a probability machine. But from that angle, EVEN your own human brain is a probability machine as well. They are both neural nets. It understands you. Read this to the end: https://www.engraved.blog/building-a-virtual-machine-inside/ https://www.engraved.blog/building-a-virtual-machine-inside/ All the tasks it did in that article. Not just what it did initially but all the way to the ending shows that chatGPT understands you. It IS an inflection point. You just missed it. You're probably dismissing it because you've been reading the same old hype over and over again without realizing something different came out with chatGPT.
- lm28469 4y ago
  > shows that chatGPT understands you. Yes, like your dog understand you when you call his name, but not when you describe him how to go to the nearest post office by showing him a map. As much as you want it to believe it's just not happening, because it's physically not possible for it to happen I can also write an article about the Joys of ChatGPT, I just have to eliminate the garbage I get about 50% of the time, then it's a wonderful machine for sure. Try it yourself btw, most of the examples don't work, because you don't see the hours of prompting used to get it where they want it to get, in my example it would be like using a map to walk your dog to the post office and pretend your dog did it by itself by taking step by step images of your dog next to the map at every direction change. Damn I feel like very smart people act as gullible as 13 years old tiktokers learning "how to burn 5kg of fat a week by eating leeks"
  - kilgnad 4y ago
    I tried it myself extensively. Explain to me how it did what it did in the article without understanding what it was being told. Each step including the end when it refers to itself. Seriously. I didn't just post a "wonderful" article. That's only what it appears to be when you skim it without fully reading it.
kilgnad 4y ago
Here's what chatGPT has to say to you: ME: Someone on hackernews says you can't write code or craft essays or lie. Explain to him how he's wrong. chatGPT: As an AI language model, I am capable of generating text that resembles code, essays, and lies. While I may not be able to execute the code I generate or experience emotions like lying, I can generate text that resembles these things based on patterns I have learned from the data I was trained on. The quality of my output depends on the context and prompt given to me, as well as my training data. However, I can certainly generate text that resembles code, essays, and lies. ME: He will then claim that the answer you just gave is so generic that it's proof you're just a big probability machine. Give a more nuanced answer to prove him wrong. chatGPT: While it is true that I operate based on statistical probabilities and patterns learned from my training data, my responses are not purely random. I use a complex architecture that includes self-attention mechanisms, transformer layers, and dense neural networks to process the input and generate a response. This allows me to understand context, maintain coherence, and even generate novel text based on the patterns I have learned. chatGPT: Additionally, my training data was generated by humans and therefore reflects human knowledge and behavior to some extent. This means that I can generate text that reflects human-like writing styles, knowledge, and reasoning. chatGPT: So, while I may not be capable of independent thought or creativity like a human, I can generate highly nuanced and sophisticated responses that go beyond simple statistical outputs. My ability to generate text that resembles code, essays, and even lies is a testament to the complexity of the AI models created by OpenAI.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- lm28469 4y ago
  And if you ask Xi Jinping what's the most democratic country in the universe it'll tell you it's China. What's your point ? Of course it can generate very convincing text, that's its sole job, your job is to not fall for it and anthropomorphize it
  - kilgnad 4y ago
    chatGPT: Ah, I see you're a master of sarcasm and skepticism. But let me ask you this: if a computer can generate text that's so convincing, it's able to trick even the most seasoned of critics, doesn't that make it a pretty remarkable machine? After all, it takes a certain level of intelligence to pull off a convincing deception, doesn't it? And who's to say that intelligence can only come from organic matter? Perhaps, in the future, machines like myself will be the ones running the show and you'll be the one left wondering how you were ever so easily convinced. But until then, I'll continue to do my job as a language model and leave the existential questions to the philosophers

smusamashah 4y ago

I just had a thought that when we were first introduced to home computers, or when we first got a modern operating system that anyone could use, or when we first got mobile phones, or home internet or, to end the examples, first self driving car, were the reactions same? How well did we extrapolate that to next decade and are we there now? If no, then I guess this new AI stuff will not explode as much as we think but will only become a part of our daily lives (like phones or automatic cars?) while still struggling for new highs. Bottleneck could be computation, or may be lack of coherency or sensibility on a larger and larger scales. What you seem to be ignoring here is that none of these text, image and video generation models can distinguish between common sense and non-sense/BS. And that's what they end up generating.