7 ms·

Gen-1: The Next Step Forward for Generative AI — Generating Videos

57 points by davidbarker 4y ago

kilgnad 4y ago
I expect Gen-5 to produce something similar to Avatar 2 from this sentence: "Blue people in science fiction film"... Or maybe you just feed it all the movies as input: Avatar 1 and Avatar 2 and it makes an Avatar 3. Truly we are witnessing the beginning of the end, yet here I am working on leetcode and practicing my programming skills as if the end wasn't impending. I'm hoping that when it comes (which it will) it will happen either towards the end of my career or well after I'm dead, but I cannot deny the possibility that the paradigm shift can happen within the next decade. How many people are just acting irrational like me and how many of you are lying to themselves and downplaying AI?
- throw1234651234 4y ago
  See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34640699 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34640699 tl;dr: So far, we might be overplaying AI. The post above can be coupled with the "AI Kessler Effect" in that AI text/code will be basing itself on AI-generated training sets. This will lead to a quality drop without human supervision (same old jobs as search-engine result checking, except maybe more technical). It will also lead to result stagnation - if fewer devs are writing code, then everything is a rehash of old code. Of course, the argument is that devs are writing new code and automating the boring parts, which is somewhat true, but doesn't lead to a loss of jobs. Also, if anyone knows of companies that they believe to be leading in AI, or products than can generate whole apps, please share. P.S. I am yet to see AI image generation to build visual novels. That would be the mark of it being "good". I spend very little time in the space though, so again, if anyone knows of anything, please share. (and no, not the kids book about AI, by AI, that is both bad and hand-picked / callibrated out of 1000s of results).
  - CuriouslyC 4y ago
    In the future researchers and big corps will have much more heavily annotated data sets that can provide models with things like aesthetics and accuracy scores, and low quality AI generations won't impact output much unless prompted for (e.g. "early 2020s style AI art image with deformed hands and phantom limbs")
    - marginalia_nu 4y ago
      The language you use makes it seem like this is an inevitability. What makes you say that?
      - CuriouslyC 4y ago
        Because data sets are very heterogeneous, and a lot of work already goes into curating them to try and get the best model possible. Curation is limited though, because it reduces the data set size and the model is still equally weighting everything in the data set, just without the worst stuff. By annotating the data set, you avoid reducing data set size while simultaneously teaching the model the difference between good and bad content. Many models already use annotated data, but LLMs haven't leveraged it much thus far because they're still new-ish tech with architectures in flux, and they've been focused on improving general quality by scaling size/data. As LLMs become more commercially important and we run out of high quality training data, annotating existing data will become the cheapest route to improving output quality.
- lm28469 4y ago
  We have a long way to go, remember we're 2 years away from self driving car since 2010. AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s Nothing says we're on a path to a paradigm shift given the current approach
  - kilgnad 4y ago
    >AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s This whole thing is no longer relevant because we just hit certain inflection points that weren't relevant in the past. AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. In fact nobody talks about this but AI can already passed the turing test. People weren't saying AGI would come out in the next decade or so, they were saying AI would pass the turing test in the next decade or so. Well.... it passed it. Yet here we are setting new goal markers and downplaying the milestone. I think if you can't acknowledge the the possibility that AI could take over our jobs within our lifetimes, then I think you're not being honest with yourself. Not saying that it will, but the possibility given the milestones surpassed by AI in the last decade... indicate that it could Must be acknowledged.
    - lm28469 4y ago
      > we just hit certain inflection points Have we ? People keep saying that every few years, crypto, web3, self driving cars, &c. > AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. Talking about being honest, this is mostly wrong and you know it. It can write some snippets of code for it was trained on, sometimes even manually so [0], its essays sound like SEO optimised gibberish that very often are actually wrong on many accounts. It cannot lie as it doesn't even know what truth is, it has no idea of what is a fact is It's not going to write an award winning book or a production read software, not even close I'd recommend you dig into how these current AIs work, there is a lot of overhype and people not understanding what they're talking about. In its current state it's a very well polished and convincing probability machine, it has no understanding, no memory, &c. We didn't hit a magical inflection point, don't expect exponential progress from now on, this isn't AGI, not even close, their developers are not even attempting to pretend it is anything like that. And don't get me wrong, they're amazing and can be used for many things, they just aren't skynet [0] https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to-make-chatgpt-better-at-coding/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to...
- swatcoder 4y ago
  The technology we’re seeing now seems on track to eat up some pretty low-level “art” tasks like pulp copywriting, boilerplate coding, token illustration and design, etc. There’s little reason to expect a lot more from it any time soon. If you came to software engineering or data science because it looked like a high-paying career for a nerd, and easier to break into then law, medicine, or trading, this isn’t a bad time to hop off. Hitch your wagon to this AI stuff and you can be a Senior Prompt Engineer in a decade and outearn all of us. But those of us who enjoy our craft and have genuine expertise don’t really need to worry about anything (except the bursting of a pay bubble that was due soon anyway).
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
xnx 4y ago
Looks like a good application of technology. Note that this isn't generating videos from scratch like Imagine Video (https://imagen.research.google/video/ https://imagen.research.google/video/).
notjustme 4y ago
RunwayML is such a scam. Their product barely works (seriously - try making a simple video), but their marketing surely does lol. Maybe instead of adding new half-finished features they should just make a few of them work.
- nodja 4y ago
  Weird thing to say when runway and compvis made stable diffusion.
  - cma 4y ago
    The short little clips do look a bit misleading, like they are just doing a technique like ebsynth plus periodic regeneration, same thing lots of people did since near day one. We'll have to wait on the paper I guess.
clircle 4y ago
Why is it that the AI research that makes it onto this website seems a lot more like marketing than a contribution to the body of human knowledge?
- marginalia_nu 4y ago
  The grifters all moved onto AI when air went out of crypto. They're desperately trying to fan the flames of another hype cycle so they can cash out again. The basic premise for such a scheme is a technology that is difficult to understand, especially for laymen. The more it seems like infinitely powerful magic, the better.
  - throw1234651234 4y ago
    That boat just sailed away 3 days ago btw: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/image-generation-ai https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/image-generation-ai
  - vba616 4y ago
    "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo"
  - nullc 4y ago
    > The grifters all moved onto AI when air went out of crypto. I wish, unfortunately grifters aren't a finite resource. (surely some crypto grifter will show up now and suggest solving this with a blockchain)
blurbleblurble 4y ago
This looks like a distillation of the kinds of techniques a lot of "AI artists" have been using for a while.
sshadow 4y ago
I really do look forward to the day in which I can ask to watch Hell's Kitchen with the cast of The Birdcage.

57 points by davidbarker 4y ago

I expect Gen-5 to produce something similar to Avatar 2 from this sentence: "Blue people in science fiction film"... Or maybe you just feed it all the movies as input: Avatar 1 and Avatar 2 and it makes an Avatar 3. Truly we are witnessing the beginning of the end, yet here I am working on leetcode and practicing my programming skills as if the end wasn't impending. I'm hoping that when it comes (which it will) it will happen either towards the end of my career or well after I'm dead, but I cannot deny the possibility that the paradigm shift can happen within the next decade. How many people are just acting irrational like me and how many of you are lying to themselves and downplaying AI?

throw1234651234 4y ago
See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34640699 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34640699 tl;dr: So far, we might be overplaying AI. The post above can be coupled with the "AI Kessler Effect" in that AI text/code will be basing itself on AI-generated training sets. This will lead to a quality drop without human supervision (same old jobs as search-engine result checking, except maybe more technical). It will also lead to result stagnation - if fewer devs are writing code, then everything is a rehash of old code. Of course, the argument is that devs are writing new code and automating the boring parts, which is somewhat true, but doesn't lead to a loss of jobs. Also, if anyone knows of companies that they believe to be leading in AI, or products than can generate whole apps, please share. P.S. I am yet to see AI image generation to build visual novels. That would be the mark of it being "good". I spend very little time in the space though, so again, if anyone knows of anything, please share. (and no, not the kids book about AI, by AI, that is both bad and hand-picked / callibrated out of 1000s of results).
- CuriouslyC 4y ago
  In the future researchers and big corps will have much more heavily annotated data sets that can provide models with things like aesthetics and accuracy scores, and low quality AI generations won't impact output much unless prompted for (e.g. "early 2020s style AI art image with deformed hands and phantom limbs")
  - marginalia_nu 4y ago
    The language you use makes it seem like this is an inevitability. What makes you say that?
    - CuriouslyC 4y ago
      Because data sets are very heterogeneous, and a lot of work already goes into curating them to try and get the best model possible. Curation is limited though, because it reduces the data set size and the model is still equally weighting everything in the data set, just without the worst stuff. By annotating the data set, you avoid reducing data set size while simultaneously teaching the model the difference between good and bad content. Many models already use annotated data, but LLMs haven't leveraged it much thus far because they're still new-ish tech with architectures in flux, and they've been focused on improving general quality by scaling size/data. As LLMs become more commercially important and we run out of high quality training data, annotating existing data will become the cheapest route to improving output quality.
lm28469 4y ago
We have a long way to go, remember we're 2 years away from self driving car since 2010. AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s Nothing says we're on a path to a paradigm shift given the current approach
- kilgnad 4y ago
  >AGI is always coming "in a decade or so" since the 70s This whole thing is no longer relevant because we just hit certain inflection points that weren't relevant in the past. AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. In fact nobody talks about this but AI can already passed the turing test. People weren't saying AGI would come out in the next decade or so, they were saying AI would pass the turing test in the next decade or so. Well.... it passed it. Yet here we are setting new goal markers and downplaying the milestone. I think if you can't acknowledge the the possibility that AI could take over our jobs within our lifetimes, then I think you're not being honest with yourself. Not saying that it will, but the possibility given the milestones surpassed by AI in the last decade... indicate that it could Must be acknowledged.
  - lm28469 4y ago
    > we just hit certain inflection points Have we ? People keep saying that every few years, crypto, web3, self driving cars, &c. > AI can now code, it can craft essays and it can lie. Talking about being honest, this is mostly wrong and you know it. It can write some snippets of code for it was trained on, sometimes even manually so [0], its essays sound like SEO optimised gibberish that very often are actually wrong on many accounts. It cannot lie as it doesn't even know what truth is, it has no idea of what is a fact is It's not going to write an award winning book or a production read software, not even close I'd recommend you dig into how these current AIs work, there is a lot of overhype and people not understanding what they're talking about. In its current state it's a very well polished and convincing probability machine, it has no understanding, no memory, &c. We didn't hit a magical inflection point, don't expect exponential progress from now on, this isn't AGI, not even close, their developers are not even attempting to pretend it is anything like that. And don't get me wrong, they're amazing and can be used for many things, they just aren't skynet [0] https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to-make-chatgpt-better-at-coding/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/openai-is-hiring-developers-to...
swatcoder 4y ago
The technology we’re seeing now seems on track to eat up some pretty low-level “art” tasks like pulp copywriting, boilerplate coding, token illustration and design, etc. There’s little reason to expect a lot more from it any time soon. If you came to software engineering or data science because it looked like a high-paying career for a nerd, and easier to break into then law, medicine, or trading, this isn’t a bad time to hop off. Hitch your wagon to this AI stuff and you can be a Senior Prompt Engineer in a decade and outearn all of us. But those of us who enjoy our craft and have genuine expertise don’t really need to worry about anything (except the bursting of a pay bubble that was due soon anyway).
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

xnx 4y ago

Looks like a good application of technology. Note that this isn't generating videos from scratch like Imagine Video (https://imagen.research.google/video/ https://imagen.research.google/video/).

notjustme 4y ago

RunwayML is such a scam. Their product barely works (seriously - try making a simple video), but their marketing surely does lol. Maybe instead of adding new half-finished features they should just make a few of them work.

nodja 4y ago
Weird thing to say when runway and compvis made stable diffusion.
- cma 4y ago
  The short little clips do look a bit misleading, like they are just doing a technique like ebsynth plus periodic regeneration, same thing lots of people did since near day one. We'll have to wait on the paper I guess.

clircle 4y ago

Why is it that the AI research that makes it onto this website seems a lot more like marketing than a contribution to the body of human knowledge?

marginalia_nu 4y ago
The grifters all moved onto AI when air went out of crypto. They're desperately trying to fan the flames of another hype cycle so they can cash out again. The basic premise for such a scheme is a technology that is difficult to understand, especially for laymen. The more it seems like infinitely powerful magic, the better.
- throw1234651234 4y ago
  That boat just sailed away 3 days ago btw: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/image-generation-ai https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/image-generation-ai
- vba616 4y ago
  "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo"
- nullc 4y ago
  > The grifters all moved onto AI when air went out of crypto. I wish, unfortunately grifters aren't a finite resource. (surely some crypto grifter will show up now and suggest solving this with a blockchain)

blurbleblurble 4y ago

This looks like a distillation of the kinds of techniques a lot of "AI artists" have been using for a while.

sshadow 4y ago

I really do look forward to the day in which I can ask to watch Hell's Kitchen with the cast of The Birdcage.