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> How is failing to predict market conditions a few months into the future... Most things like this are very difficult (impossible) to predict. In hindsight ev
by cj 4y ago
> How is failing to predict market conditions a few months into the future...
Most things like this are very difficult (impossible) to predict. In hindsight everything seems obvious, but it usually isn't obvious in the moment.
In 2020/2021, shareholders of tech companies were demanding growth and pouring money into these companies to create growth. Most companies took that money, hired people to create growth, under the impression that the flow of money wouldn't be abruptly and unexpectedly turned off, which is what happened in early 2022, leading the companies not being able to raise additional capital, leading to lay offs as they pivot their strategy to more cash efficient operating models.
TLDR: It's hard to predict the future. And when you're in a bubble, it's very hard to recognize it until after the bubble bursts. And, bubbles can last multiple years (even decades). If you asked people in 2021 if tech valuations would continue to increase, I'm guessing many people would say "yes" even though a few short months later the answer was obviously "no".