3 ms·

Three videos is not a preponderance of data. The number of photos taken in the past day exceeds the number of photos taken in the past year exceeds the number

Three videos is not a preponderance of data. The number of photos taken in the past day exceeds the number of photos taken in the past year exceeds the number of photos taken in the 20th century. We have cameras in space, we have cameras everywhere we have people, so then where is the expected increase in observations? UFO sightings have been relatively steady, with peaks and valleys as the zeitgeist ebbs and flows. If we don't assume UFO presence as constant (ie it might go down when we have more observing capabilities) then there's little information to be learned. At some point it turns into metaphysics. Case studies are great, but I have not seen convincing, properly skeptical analyses. As they say: it's never aliens. People, unfortunately, are typically willing to see what they want to see.

mach1ne 4y ago
If the events happen mainly at altitudes, smartphones have a hard time capturing them. There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence.
- guhidalg 4y ago
  LOL! What? Aliens are worried about being exposed? Why? Did you ask them? Answer: not aliens, just a big PsyOps to give the military more funding.
- krapp 4y ago
  >There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence. The public by and large, more or less, already believes in their existence. There are actual religions built around aliens, this has been been a part of pop culture since the 1940s. If they're trying to obey something like the Prime Directive and prevent cultural contamination then they seem to be doing a terrible job. Picard would be ashamed.
  - willis936 4y ago
    Imagine you're a strong military and you have a potential adversary. You want to control what force capabilities you advertise. Maybe you test an anti-satellite rocket, maybe you decide to not shoot down a spy balloon, etc. Now imagine you're a galactic force where the minimum ante for any extra-societal interaction is the highest existential stakes possible. You're going to be very careful and methodical with your force projection. I'm not saying that's what's going on here, but there are many different plausible explanations for behavior that seems strange, unlikely, or convenient at first blush.
likeabbas 4y ago
Unfortunately most of this data is highly classified and not going to leak. We do have cameras everywhere, but I’m not sure how many civilian devices can capture a good video of something going Mach 15+. All I can say to you is to look into the last NDAA legislation. These former DoD officials have convinced congress members enough to include legislation to further study UAP and create a system for pilots to report their events properly. One final note: a true scientist should never rule out a possibility. Blanket saying “it’s never aliens” is wrong, because one day we almost for sure will find alien life in the universe.
- willis936 4y ago
  Much like any guiding principle in science, "it's never aliens" is a rule of thumb. Obviously no scientist rules out legitimate possibilities, but it's similar to math being riddled with singularities. It's a sign that more work is likely needed.
  - likeabbas 4y ago
    More work is absolutely needed. But in this case, let me quote the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence with regards to the data he's seen on UAPs: "Currently, the extraterrestrial hypothesis best fits the facts".
    - willis936 4y ago
      From my perspective it doesn't pass muster. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and we simply don't have that evidence. "Trust us, we have the evidence, no you can't see it." is not good enough. I have looked at the publicly available evidence, read the analyses, and thought long about this (as have many others). In my best estimate there is either a concerted effort by eccentric military leaders to trickle UAP sightings with a sprinkling of psyops. The US military is intentionally very opaque and slow, but that does not make it also all-seeing or wise.
      - revscat 4y ago

mach1ne 4y ago

If the events happen mainly at altitudes, smartphones have a hard time capturing them. There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence.

guhidalg 4y ago
LOL! What? Aliens are worried about being exposed? Why? Did you ask them? Answer: not aliens, just a big PsyOps to give the military more funding.
krapp 4y ago
>There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence. The public by and large, more or less, already believes in their existence. There are actual religions built around aliens, this has been been a part of pop culture since the 1940s. If they're trying to obey something like the Prime Directive and prevent cultural contamination then they seem to be doing a terrible job. Picard would be ashamed.
- willis936 4y ago
  Imagine you're a strong military and you have a potential adversary. You want to control what force capabilities you advertise. Maybe you test an anti-satellite rocket, maybe you decide to not shoot down a spy balloon, etc. Now imagine you're a galactic force where the minimum ante for any extra-societal interaction is the highest existential stakes possible. You're going to be very careful and methodical with your force projection. I'm not saying that's what's going on here, but there are many different plausible explanations for behavior that seems strange, unlikely, or convenient at first blush.

likeabbas 4y ago

Unfortunately most of this data is highly classified and not going to leak. We do have cameras everywhere, but I’m not sure how many civilian devices can capture a good video of something going Mach 15+. All I can say to you is to look into the last NDAA legislation. These former DoD officials have convinced congress members enough to include legislation to further study UAP and create a system for pilots to report their events properly. One final note: a true scientist should never rule out a possibility. Blanket saying “it’s never aliens” is wrong, because one day we almost for sure will find alien life in the universe.

willis936 4y ago
Much like any guiding principle in science, "it's never aliens" is a rule of thumb. Obviously no scientist rules out legitimate possibilities, but it's similar to math being riddled with singularities. It's a sign that more work is likely needed.
- likeabbas 4y ago
  More work is absolutely needed. But in this case, let me quote the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence with regards to the data he's seen on UAPs: "Currently, the extraterrestrial hypothesis best fits the facts".
  - willis936 4y ago
    From my perspective it doesn't pass muster. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and we simply don't have that evidence. "Trust us, we have the evidence, no you can't see it." is not good enough. I have looked at the publicly available evidence, read the analyses, and thought long about this (as have many others). In my best estimate there is either a concerted effort by eccentric military leaders to trickle UAP sightings with a sprinkling of psyops. The US military is intentionally very opaque and slow, but that does not make it also all-seeing or wise.
    - revscat 4y ago