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1. Day Trading as a career always was true, 90s, 00s, 10s, and 20s. No need for zero fed rate. Its not like WSB has gotten much crazier IMO. I think "meme stonk
by dragontamer 4y ago
1. Day Trading as a career always was true, 90s, 00s, 10s, and 20s. No need for zero fed rate. Its not like WSB has gotten much crazier IMO. I think "meme stonks" became a thing due to zero-interest-rates but... optimistic day traders? That's always been true and still is true with higher interest rates.
2. SPACs... seems zero-percent ish. A pile of money that sits around and does nothing makes 0% for a year. Fine with 0% interest rates, terrible when the Fed Rate is 4.5% (its like you're losing 4.5% against money market funds).
3. ESG -- I think people want to invest more socially responsibly. ESG has its flaws, but the idea of ranking companies on environmental / social / governance metrics and then using that to change the %investment is a laudable goal. I think ESG needs to learn how to conduct its metrics, but I don't think I really disagree with the premise.
4. Sure. Legit point.
5. N/C. I'm too ignorant of Miami and didn't realize this was a thing at all.
6. NFTs, and their closely related Cryptocoins (see Ordinals) are terrible ideas IMO. I think they would have happened anyway, but a lot of people threw money into them because of the excessive money that was floating around. So I can see the correlation at least, but its a bit indirect.
7. Adjusted EBITDA has always been a thing as far as I can remember. GAAP is rigid and some people want flexibility in reporting. But everyone also knows how GAAP is supposed to be reported / audited.
8. Silicon Valley specific IMO and I don't think its related to rates. When in a boom, your amenities naturally increase. I'm not sure if the tech-boom of 2020 was only caused by zero-interest rate policy, the natural result of COVID19 / work from home protections also increased the amount of money the tech sector got. (see Zoom and other such online services).
9. Video games are surprisingly expensive. XBox famously lost money at Microsoft, and I'm reminded of the huge amount of effort that went into AIs that understood the human skeleton for video-video games, like Kinect and this abomination: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg_FoEy8T_A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg_FoEy8T_A .
10.See #8. During boom periods, managers will turn a blind eye to such behavior.
11. Cathie Wood's ARKK funds definitely are high-beta that would perform poorly as zero-interest rate policy lifts. I think this is a legit point.
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#2, #4, #6, #11. So I guess I agree maybe 4.5/11 (since I'm too ignorant on the Miami point, i'll score that .5).
EDIT: I guess I half-agree with #8 and #10. A lot of things were going on in 2020, zero-interest rate policies were at best, a partial cause to the conditions of 2020 / COVID19 tech boom. So maybe a half-agree on two more points pushing the score up to maybe 5.5/11.