You might be interested in the crowdsourced prediction which currently stands at 2039: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intel

You might be interested in the crowdsourced prediction which currently stands at 2039: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-.... My personal shorter-term prediction, based on my experience and extensive reading of papers in the field, is that we have a clear path forward for the next two years or so, and we'll see significant progress. However, progress will slow down significantly later on unless we get some major research breakthroughs, greater than advancements such as diffusion or transformers. But I also anticipate that major labs will publish much less in order to get a commercial advantage, slowing down the pace of research.