> How long do you think it will take until very large AI models show general intelligence without any apparent failures? No one knows. People do not know how t

> How long do you think it will take until very large AI models show general intelligence without any apparent failures? No one knows. People do not know how their minds work. Some parts of it were discovered but we do not know how much remains unknown. It is the story of AI. Researchers get the idea, they play with it, they find the limits of the idea, they start to look for the other idea. For example, I do love the story of "expert systems". AI researchers tried to model expert's decision making process with logic rules and utterly failed. The positive result of all these efforts we know now that a) logic is not the basis of human mind, and b) experts themselves do not know how they reach decisions. Not all AI adventures ended so badly, but the most of them gave some more wisdom along the lines "intelligence is more difficult that we thought, so we need 30 more years to build AGI". It is a search problem, we seek a path to AGI, and we do not know the path in advance, we cannot measure it's length. So it is impossible to predict future. We can draw more or less credible predictions about the future of ChatGPT and similar tech, but not about what will be the next Thing and how it will be close to AGI.