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One theory is that the Chinese know that. This could be them sending a message: "If you defend Taiwan, we can get over your heads cheaply and easily". The only

One theory is that the Chinese know that. This could be them sending a message: "If you defend Taiwan, we can get over your heads cheaply and easily". The only casualties on the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast. I doubt that symbolism was lost on the military or the Biden administration.

credit_guy 4y ago
That can't be the message. You saw how easy it was to down the balloon.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- chitowneats 4y ago
  It was easy to down one balloon during peace-time. You're right. Please see my comment further below for why that might not work in aggregate during a real military conflict. Edit: I'll paste it here in case it gets buried: I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1]. I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah. 1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-balloons-menaced-american-skies-during-world-war-ii-20230204-p5chvt.html https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...
  - breck 4y ago
    I thought the whole thing was blown out of proportion and was almost certainly a weather balloon mistake, but I forgot about that WWII anecdote, and you are absolutely right. The odds of it actually being related to military just went up a lot in my calculations.
  - luckylion 4y ago
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't you just need a single plane with a machine gun on board to take down hundreds of these if you cared to take them down? And you can spot them far, far away and take them down far away from the coast, can't you? I mean, they can't really do evasive maneuvers, they're not fast, they don't fight back, they're not armored, you wouldn't need super modern missiles.
    - credit_guy 4y ago
      It appears this particular balloon was traveling at 60000 feet altitude. The flight ceiling of an F-22 is 50000 (according to the internet, although the actual number is very likely classified). If that's correct, then shooting a balloon from 10000 feet below with a machine gun is not easy. Even if you put some holes in it, such a balloon is not going to simply pop like a party balloon. It very likely does not have a pressure differential between the inside and the outside, so the holes will simply allow the air to mix slowly (very slowly) with the lifting gas inside (hydrogen or helium). It will probably take days or weeks before the balloon goes down.
      - GauntletWizard 4y ago
        The effective range of the F-22's Vulcan Cannon is 2000 feet - That's where you expect about a quarter of the shots to hit... When you're talking about a fighter-jet sized target. The bullets will easily travel, still at kill velocity, well beyond that. I have no doubts that for a slow moving target such as a balloon, they can spray and pray, and pop it every time.
        credit_guy 4y ago
MisterBastahrd 4y ago
Then they're going to be shocked when they realize how satellites work
tshaddox 4y ago
China has ICBMs with nuclear warheads. No one is confused about whether China has the ability to harm Americans on American soil.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  No one is confused about the result of the use of nuclear weapons. Has Russia used them yet in their almost year-long war against Ukraine? Has the U.S.? Update your assumptions. All major powers are exploring how they might wage war short of nukes.
  - pokepim 4y ago
    [dead]
  - sebzim4500 4y ago
    >All major powers are exploring how they might wage war short of nukes. Certainly not with balloons.
    - chitowneats 4y ago
      The Chinese are a very innovative major power. Underestimate them at your own risk.
      - sebzim4500 4y ago
        Yes but they are a major power because they have a large military and hundreds/thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Not because they have some balloons.
        yazzku 4y ago
        That's what they want you to believe.
      - tshaddox 4y ago
        It’s odd to simultaneously say that nuclear weapons are irrelevant to the discussion and yet say that it would be an underestimate to expect that they probably wouldn’t rely on balloons.

credit_guy 4y ago

That can't be the message. You saw how easy it was to down the balloon.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
chitowneats 4y ago
It was easy to down one balloon during peace-time. You're right. Please see my comment further below for why that might not work in aggregate during a real military conflict. Edit: I'll paste it here in case it gets buried: I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1]. I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah. 1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-balloons-menaced-american-skies-during-world-war-ii-20230204-p5chvt.html https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...
- breck 4y ago
  I thought the whole thing was blown out of proportion and was almost certainly a weather balloon mistake, but I forgot about that WWII anecdote, and you are absolutely right. The odds of it actually being related to military just went up a lot in my calculations.
- luckylion 4y ago
  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't you just need a single plane with a machine gun on board to take down hundreds of these if you cared to take them down? And you can spot them far, far away and take them down far away from the coast, can't you? I mean, they can't really do evasive maneuvers, they're not fast, they don't fight back, they're not armored, you wouldn't need super modern missiles.
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    It appears this particular balloon was traveling at 60000 feet altitude. The flight ceiling of an F-22 is 50000 (according to the internet, although the actual number is very likely classified). If that's correct, then shooting a balloon from 10000 feet below with a machine gun is not easy. Even if you put some holes in it, such a balloon is not going to simply pop like a party balloon. It very likely does not have a pressure differential between the inside and the outside, so the holes will simply allow the air to mix slowly (very slowly) with the lifting gas inside (hydrogen or helium). It will probably take days or weeks before the balloon goes down.
    - GauntletWizard 4y ago
      The effective range of the F-22's Vulcan Cannon is 2000 feet - That's where you expect about a quarter of the shots to hit... When you're talking about a fighter-jet sized target. The bullets will easily travel, still at kill velocity, well beyond that. I have no doubts that for a slow moving target such as a balloon, they can spray and pray, and pop it every time.
      - credit_guy 4y ago

MisterBastahrd 4y ago

Then they're going to be shocked when they realize how satellites work

tshaddox 4y ago

China has ICBMs with nuclear warheads. No one is confused about whether China has the ability to harm Americans on American soil.

chitowneats 4y ago
No one is confused about the result of the use of nuclear weapons. Has Russia used them yet in their almost year-long war against Ukraine? Has the U.S.? Update your assumptions. All major powers are exploring how they might wage war short of nukes.
- pokepim 4y ago
  [dead]
- sebzim4500 4y ago
  >All major powers are exploring how they might wage war short of nukes. Certainly not with balloons.
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    The Chinese are a very innovative major power. Underestimate them at your own risk.
    - sebzim4500 4y ago
      Yes but they are a major power because they have a large military and hundreds/thousands of strategic nuclear weapons. Not because they have some balloons.
      - yazzku 4y ago
        That's what they want you to believe.
    - tshaddox 4y ago
      It’s odd to simultaneously say that nuclear weapons are irrelevant to the discussion and yet say that it would be an underestimate to expect that they probably wouldn’t rely on balloons.