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Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and

Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).

mrtksn 4y ago
Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
- rationalist 4y ago
  The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
  - sandworm101 4y ago
    Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...
- tristanj 4y ago
  >there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier No, the balloon was tracked when it entered Alaska on Jan 28 https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-was-spotted-before-being-sho/12768038/ https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-...
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Thanks!
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
There was a thread on Twitter - which I didn't bookmark - which suggested there was a DoD statement that they'd tracked a number of these back at least as far as Trump's term. And there were suggestions they might also have been used elsewhere, not just in the US/Canada. As for what intel they could collect - a payload of that size would be equivalent to an airliner full of ELINT systems, rather like the US Rivet series. So that would include possible decryption of comms, and potentially precision mapping, analysis of traffic patterns, tests of local backdoor access, and so on. Not all of that is easily done by satellite.

mrtksn 4y ago

Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.

rationalist 4y ago
The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
- sandworm101 4y ago
  Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...
tristanj 4y ago
>there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier No, the balloon was tracked when it entered Alaska on Jan 28 https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-was-spotted-before-being-sho/12768038/ https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-...
- mrtksn 4y ago
  Thanks!

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago

There was a thread on Twitter - which I didn't bookmark - which suggested there was a DoD statement that they'd tracked a number of these back at least as far as Trump's term. And there were suggestions they might also have been used elsewhere, not just in the US/Canada. As for what intel they could collect - a payload of that size would be equivalent to an airliner full of ELINT systems, rather like the US Rivet series. So that would include possible decryption of comms, and potentially precision mapping, analysis of traffic patterns, tests of local backdoor access, and so on. Not all of that is easily done by satellite.