5 ms·

No, this is the biggest technological breakthrough of our lives, for better or for worse.

wilsonnb3 4y ago
I have read this exact sentiment about blockchain and crypto so many times in my life. I lived through the rise of the web, mobile internet, and the smartphone so I have my doubts about ChatGPT being the biggest technological breakthrough of my life. Not to mention all of the things outside the realm of computer science competing for that title. Fusion power, solar power, alternatives to antibiotics, cures for diseases that kill millions, etc.
- TillE 4y ago
  Yeah seriously, unless you're really young, the internet and the smartphone are absolutely seismic cultural shifts that changed everyone's lives. Compare 2023 to 1993. LLMs have a long, long way to go to get anywhere near that. All the predictions about replacing jobs are making dubious assumptions about radical improvements over the current state of the art. Maybe that will happen, maybe it won't.
  - consumer451 4y ago
    > LLMs have a long, long way to go to get anywhere near that. The question in my mind is: is the curve just linear or is it getting closer to exponential at this point?
    - mjr00 4y ago
      There isn't a curve at all. It's discrete steps. Which is why so many people freak out when there's a step change, because they extrapolate the existence of a curve where there isn't one.
      - consumer451 4y ago
        Come on, a curve can be drawn over the steps. I'm a maths dumb dumb but.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation Here is ChatGPT's response fwiw. Prompt: is the curve of improvement in LLMs linear or more exponential? ChatGPT: The improvement in language models has generally followed an exponential trend. With the advent of deep learning and the increasing availability of large amounts of data, the performance of language models has improved dramatically in recent years, leading to breakthroughs in various NLP tasks. However, it is important to note that the improvement curve of language models is influenced by multiple factors, including the amount of training data, the size and complexity of the model, and the computational resources available. The improvement curve of language models may also become more linear as the state of the art approaches certain limits.
        consumer451 4y ago
        Got caught by edit time limits, mid-edit. > The improvement curve of language models may also become more linear as the state of the art approaches certain limits. This part of ChatGPT's response is the crux of my original question. It might be notable that I was able to focus and possibly learn from the response to my question via interaction with an LLM, and not via interaction with a human.
  - petodo 4y ago
    smartphone without internet doesn't have much use, so what you really wanted to say it's "internet and convenient mobile internet access", not the smartphone (we had phones with mobile internet before but it was quite inconvenient before big capacitive touch screens, even resistive touch screen was PITA), imagine who would stare at smartphone without internet
- nathias 4y ago
  Smartphones have come and will go, but AI will be with us forever. I don't see any fusion power being used, but I do see a chatbot that can do most of what I can.

I have read this exact sentiment about blockchain and crypto so many times in my life. I lived through the rise of the web, mobile internet, and the smartphone so I have my doubts about ChatGPT being the biggest technological breakthrough of my life. Not to mention all of the things outside the realm of computer science competing for that title. Fusion power, solar power, alternatives to antibiotics, cures for diseases that kill millions, etc.

TillE 4y ago
Yeah seriously, unless you're really young, the internet and the smartphone are absolutely seismic cultural shifts that changed everyone's lives. Compare 2023 to 1993. LLMs have a long, long way to go to get anywhere near that. All the predictions about replacing jobs are making dubious assumptions about radical improvements over the current state of the art. Maybe that will happen, maybe it won't.
- consumer451 4y ago
  > LLMs have a long, long way to go to get anywhere near that. The question in my mind is: is the curve just linear or is it getting closer to exponential at this point?
  - mjr00 4y ago
    There isn't a curve at all. It's discrete steps. Which is why so many people freak out when there's a step change, because they extrapolate the existence of a curve where there isn't one.
    - consumer451 4y ago
      Come on, a curve can be drawn over the steps. I'm a maths dumb dumb but.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation Here is ChatGPT's response fwiw. Prompt: is the curve of improvement in LLMs linear or more exponential? ChatGPT: The improvement in language models has generally followed an exponential trend. With the advent of deep learning and the increasing availability of large amounts of data, the performance of language models has improved dramatically in recent years, leading to breakthroughs in various NLP tasks. However, it is important to note that the improvement curve of language models is influenced by multiple factors, including the amount of training data, the size and complexity of the model, and the computational resources available. The improvement curve of language models may also become more linear as the state of the art approaches certain limits.
      - consumer451 4y ago
        Got caught by edit time limits, mid-edit. > The improvement curve of language models may also become more linear as the state of the art approaches certain limits. This part of ChatGPT's response is the crux of my original question. It might be notable that I was able to focus and possibly learn from the response to my question via interaction with an LLM, and not via interaction with a human.
- petodo 4y ago
  smartphone without internet doesn't have much use, so what you really wanted to say it's "internet and convenient mobile internet access", not the smartphone (we had phones with mobile internet before but it was quite inconvenient before big capacitive touch screens, even resistive touch screen was PITA), imagine who would stare at smartphone without internet
nathias 4y ago
Smartphones have come and will go, but AI will be with us forever. I don't see any fusion power being used, but I do see a chatbot that can do most of what I can.