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It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chine

by mrtksn 4y ago

It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era military drone that flew half of the EU without detection to crash far away from Ukraine. Maybe the world is not under complete surveillance just yet.

rationalist 4y ago
Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).
- mrtksn 4y ago
  Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
  - rationalist 4y ago
    The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
    - sandworm101 4y ago
      Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...
  - tristanj 4y ago
    >there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier No, the balloon was tracked when it entered Alaska on Jan 28 https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-was-spotted-before-being-sho/12768038/ https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-...
    - mrtksn 4y ago
      Thanks!
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  There was a thread on Twitter - which I didn't bookmark - which suggested there was a DoD statement that they'd tracked a number of these back at least as far as Trump's term. And there were suggestions they might also have been used elsewhere, not just in the US/Canada. As for what intel they could collect - a payload of that size would be equivalent to an airliner full of ELINT systems, rather like the US Rivet series. So that would include possible decryption of comms, and potentially precision mapping, analysis of traffic patterns, tests of local backdoor access, and so on. Not all of that is easily done by satellite.
londons_explore 4y ago
It is common for countries to not reveal that they have noticed something. Revealing that you've noticed tells the enemy about your surveillance abilities.
- mrtksn 4y ago
  I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.
  - rationalist 4y ago
    That doesn't meam that the military didn't spot it first but just didn't tell anyone.
    - mrtksn 4y ago
      Congrats to the military then for letting the Chinese conduct surveillance in order to conceal the fact that they have employees with eyes.
      - yongjik 4y ago
        While being watched by the US military, thus giving it potentially valuable information on how China conducts its surveillance. It's turtles all the way down.
        mrtksn 4y ago
        For some reason a lot of people really want to believe that the military was all over it without any indication whatsoever. I guess it feeds from the need of knowing that someone(the correct one I guess?) is watching.
        rationalist 4y ago
        > For some reason a lot of people really want to believe that the military was all over it without any indication whatsoever Not for me at least. I never claimed the military did anything (discovered it, surveilled it), just that it's possible that they could have done something without others knowing. I just think it's extremely bad form to assume things that there's no evidence for - both about the balloon and the military, and about why people are commenting.

by mrtksn 4y ago

rationalist 4y ago

Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).

mrtksn 4y ago
Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
- rationalist 4y ago
  The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media. There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.
  - sandworm101 4y ago
    Except the statements from Canada that are very suggestive. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-on-high-altitude-surveillance-balloon.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20... https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2023/02/statement-from-the-minister-of-national-defence.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/20...
- tristanj 4y ago
  >there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier No, the balloon was tracked when it entered Alaska on Jan 28 https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-was-spotted-before-being-sho/12768038/ https://abc7news.com/where-the-chinese-surveillance-balloon-...
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Thanks!
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
There was a thread on Twitter - which I didn't bookmark - which suggested there was a DoD statement that they'd tracked a number of these back at least as far as Trump's term. And there were suggestions they might also have been used elsewhere, not just in the US/Canada. As for what intel they could collect - a payload of that size would be equivalent to an airliner full of ELINT systems, rather like the US Rivet series. So that would include possible decryption of comms, and potentially precision mapping, analysis of traffic patterns, tests of local backdoor access, and so on. Not all of that is easily done by satellite.

londons_explore 4y ago

It is common for countries to not reveal that they have noticed something. Revealing that you've noticed tells the enemy about your surveillance abilities.

mrtksn 4y ago
I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.
- rationalist 4y ago
  That doesn't meam that the military didn't spot it first but just didn't tell anyone.
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Congrats to the military then for letting the Chinese conduct surveillance in order to conceal the fact that they have employees with eyes.
    - yongjik 4y ago
      While being watched by the US military, thus giving it potentially valuable information on how China conducts its surveillance. It's turtles all the way down.
      - mrtksn 4y ago
        For some reason a lot of people really want to believe that the military was all over it without any indication whatsoever. I guess it feeds from the need of knowing that someone(the correct one I guess?) is watching.
        rationalist 4y ago
        > For some reason a lot of people really want to believe that the military was all over it without any indication whatsoever Not for me at least. I never claimed the military did anything (discovered it, surveilled it), just that it's possible that they could have done something without others knowing. I just think it's extremely bad form to assume things that there's no evidence for - both about the balloon and the military, and about why people are commenting.