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I think the class component here is underrated for sure. Technology has done a lot more do destroy blue-collar jobs over the last century, and so white-collar

I think the class component here is underrated for sure. Technology has done a lot more do destroy blue-collar jobs over the last century, and so white-collar people have been pretty chill about it. But I think you're right that we'll see a change around that. ChatGPT, for example, is pretty bad at creating excellent prose with reliable information. But it's extremely good at creating a bullshit memo that nobody will really read or act upon. And I think there are a lot of people out there with bullshit jobs that will find themselves at risk.

wilg 4y ago
> Technology has done a lot more do destroy blue-collar jobs over the last century It'd be interesting to know if this is true. My gut says it might be the opposite. Maybe many "unskilled" jobs are moved out of the U.S. for example, but that's attributable to geopolitics not technology.
- wpietri 4y ago
  Here's some useful data for you: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-191... But note that this is only non-farm employment. Currently about 1% of the US's population works in agriculture. At around the same time, 31% of people did farm work: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-american-workers-in-1915.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-americ... I'll note that offshoring is also driven by technological change. In particular, cheap global shipping and communication. It's true a bunch of manufacturing jobs went to places with cheaper labor. But if those jobs had stayed here, there would still be a lot less of them because our higher labor prices make it more worthwhile to spend on factory automation. Another area where technology makes a big difference is in household labor. In 1910, 14.5% people were engaged in either domestic or personal service. Now it's 1%. We owe a lot of that to things like the washing machine and the dishwasher.
  - wilg 4y ago
    But what happened to the people who had those blue-collar jobs? Surely they didn't all die. Did they become white-collar workers? If so, wouldn't that be a good thing?
    - wpietri 4y ago
      Sure! So far we have always found things for people to do. That's probably good. But maybe not always. We are also seeing rising inequality and increased capital concentration. So there's a risk that we might head in the direction of, say, preindustrial England, where to survive people have to labor to make the rich happy. There's also the phenomenon of bullshit jobs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs As the relationship between labor and value becomes less and less direct, it becomes easier for waste to creep in. E.g., a manger who over-hires not because the new people are needed to do anything, but because their status rises with their headcount. So hopefully as all of these white-collar workers are forced to find new employment, we will find socially positive things for them to do. But I don't think it's guaranteed.

wilg 4y ago

> Technology has done a lot more do destroy blue-collar jobs over the last century It'd be interesting to know if this is true. My gut says it might be the opposite. Maybe many "unskilled" jobs are moved out of the U.S. for example, but that's attributable to geopolitics not technology.

wpietri 4y ago
Here's some useful data for you: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-191... But note that this is only non-farm employment. Currently about 1% of the US's population works in agriculture. At around the same time, 31% of people did farm work: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-american-workers-in-1915.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/the-life-of-americ... I'll note that offshoring is also driven by technological change. In particular, cheap global shipping and communication. It's true a bunch of manufacturing jobs went to places with cheaper labor. But if those jobs had stayed here, there would still be a lot less of them because our higher labor prices make it more worthwhile to spend on factory automation. Another area where technology makes a big difference is in household labor. In 1910, 14.5% people were engaged in either domestic or personal service. Now it's 1%. We owe a lot of that to things like the washing machine and the dishwasher.
- wilg 4y ago
  But what happened to the people who had those blue-collar jobs? Surely they didn't all die. Did they become white-collar workers? If so, wouldn't that be a good thing?
  - wpietri 4y ago
    Sure! So far we have always found things for people to do. That's probably good. But maybe not always. We are also seeing rising inequality and increased capital concentration. So there's a risk that we might head in the direction of, say, preindustrial England, where to survive people have to labor to make the rich happy. There's also the phenomenon of bullshit jobs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs As the relationship between labor and value becomes less and less direct, it becomes easier for waste to creep in. E.g., a manger who over-hires not because the new people are needed to do anything, but because their status rises with their headcount. So hopefully as all of these white-collar workers are forced to find new employment, we will find socially positive things for them to do. But I don't think it's guaranteed.