4 ms·

> Not accounting for luck as a factor of success is one of my pet peeves. Why do you model life as a single bet where you have a 1 or 2% chance of winning? In

> Not accounting for luck as a factor of success is one of my pet peeves. Why do you model life as a single bet where you have a 1 or 2% chance of winning? In reality you are making bets every day, each with a range of odds of succeeding and each success can produce a range of outcomes. Look at poker, a game that has a massive "luck" component, people still consistently win.

Zircom 4y ago
Poker is a well studied, and more importantly, closed system where all of the variables are either known or known unknowns. We literally have bots now that can play poker better than any human. The amount of decisions you make in a game of poker vs the amount you make in a lifetime are not even remotely comparable. And unlike life, in poker there's no risk in making bad decisions during the game while you're still learning. Worst case scenario you just start a new game until you get the hang of it. Life is not like that. There's no practice run, and when you make what turns out to be the wrong decision it can follow you around for the rest of your life. His point is that it's extremely possible, and in fact happens every day, that you can be a talented, hard worker who put in the same amount of hard work and time that someone else did, and make all the objectively correct choices, and the difference between the levels of success you both achieve can and will be huge.
- friedman23 4y ago
  > We literally have bots now that can play poker better than any human. This is not true but will be at some point. > And unlike life, in poker there's no risk in making bad decisions during the game while you're still learning You haven't met most poker players, they almost all start playing with real money before they even have a clue. What make s poker a truly terrifying game is that you can win a lot while making all the wrong decisions and get hooked for life while being a terrible player. > Worst case scenario you just start a new game until you get the hang of it. Life is not like that. There's no practice run, and when you make what turns out to be the wrong decision it can follow you around for the rest of your life. Yes, there are many unfortunate people that have made life altering decisions while young and the decisions follow them forever. Thankfully not all failures in life hold such dire consequences, in fact some failures seem like the end of the world but in reality the consequences are not as big as you expect (eg getting fired from your first job or failing an exam).
actually_a_dog 4y ago
Let’s start with you have to grow up in an environment where you can the rules of the game, generally by watching others. If you know how to “hard work” yourself into growing up right, I’d like to know how.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  > I’d like to know how 1. stay in school 2. pay attention in school 3. go to college 4. don't do drugs 5. don't do crimes This is a solid ticket for anyone wishing to get into the middle class.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    You forgot: 6. Don't have children out of wedlock That derails a lot of people.
    - actually_a_dog 4y ago
      Also, "be born in, or be able to get to a country that has enough opportunities."
      - WalterBright 4y ago
        Choose to move to another country, choose to fix your own country, choose to do nothing but curse the fates.
        wadd1e 4y ago
        I've been reading your replies in this thread, and I'd highly recommend you to just take a moment and reflect on what you've been suggesting to other commenters. Your replies have been ignorant at best and pure nonesense at worst. I'd elaborate but I don't have the time and energy to justify myself, so I understand if you take this with a grain of salt, but I wanted to let you know nonetheless.

Zircom 4y ago

Poker is a well studied, and more importantly, closed system where all of the variables are either known or known unknowns. We literally have bots now that can play poker better than any human. The amount of decisions you make in a game of poker vs the amount you make in a lifetime are not even remotely comparable. And unlike life, in poker there's no risk in making bad decisions during the game while you're still learning. Worst case scenario you just start a new game until you get the hang of it. Life is not like that. There's no practice run, and when you make what turns out to be the wrong decision it can follow you around for the rest of your life. His point is that it's extremely possible, and in fact happens every day, that you can be a talented, hard worker who put in the same amount of hard work and time that someone else did, and make all the objectively correct choices, and the difference between the levels of success you both achieve can and will be huge.

friedman23 4y ago
> We literally have bots now that can play poker better than any human. This is not true but will be at some point. > And unlike life, in poker there's no risk in making bad decisions during the game while you're still learning You haven't met most poker players, they almost all start playing with real money before they even have a clue. What make s poker a truly terrifying game is that you can win a lot while making all the wrong decisions and get hooked for life while being a terrible player. > Worst case scenario you just start a new game until you get the hang of it. Life is not like that. There's no practice run, and when you make what turns out to be the wrong decision it can follow you around for the rest of your life. Yes, there are many unfortunate people that have made life altering decisions while young and the decisions follow them forever. Thankfully not all failures in life hold such dire consequences, in fact some failures seem like the end of the world but in reality the consequences are not as big as you expect (eg getting fired from your first job or failing an exam).

actually_a_dog 4y ago

Let’s start with you have to grow up in an environment where you can the rules of the game, generally by watching others. If you know how to “hard work” yourself into growing up right, I’d like to know how.

WalterBright 4y ago
> I’d like to know how 1. stay in school 2. pay attention in school 3. go to college 4. don't do drugs 5. don't do crimes This is a solid ticket for anyone wishing to get into the middle class.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  You forgot: 6. Don't have children out of wedlock That derails a lot of people.
  - actually_a_dog 4y ago
    Also, "be born in, or be able to get to a country that has enough opportunities."
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      Choose to move to another country, choose to fix your own country, choose to do nothing but curse the fates.
      - wadd1e 4y ago
        I've been reading your replies in this thread, and I'd highly recommend you to just take a moment and reflect on what you've been suggesting to other commenters. Your replies have been ignorant at best and pure nonesense at worst. I'd elaborate but I don't have the time and energy to justify myself, so I understand if you take this with a grain of salt, but I wanted to let you know nonetheless.