9 ms·

Because few people are objective enough to put aside their deep emotional attachment to the notion that their particular bit of hard work and skill meant nothin

by sidlls 4y ago

Because few people are objective enough to put aside their deep emotional attachment to the notion that their particular bit of hard work and skill meant nothing without that luck. I’m wealthy now: very wealthy by any standard (mid 7-figure net worth). I came from humble beginnings (nearly homeless frequently as a youth with a single mom), but I am quite intelligent (PhD in physics) and I worked hard. I would have retired with the same 401k any other white collar worker would have but for the sheer luck of choosing the right company at the right time to win an IPO lottery. I wouldn’t have got hired without the work I put in: but there’s no doubt in my mind that my wealth is the product of luck more than that work. Literally billions of people worked harder than I have in that same period of time and have nothing but poverty to show for it. But to hear my engineer peers talk you’d think luck was negligible. They simply don’t want to discount their hard work and bias toward putting much more weight on it than is merited

jandrewrogers 4y ago
Many people with your net worth grind it out without any windfalls, the product of consistent hard work and reasonable choices over decades. It was always a possibility. Most people don't require an IPO to achieve that. Luck can accelerate that outcome but it is not necessary in any meaningful sense. It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky.
- Teever 4y ago
  Yes, and for every one of those people, there's at least a child or two of theirs who again is back to the completely lucked out scenario because they were born to into a wealthy life, so in the end, it seems like luck plays more of a factor in success than hard work.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Luck, like capital, is all about compounding.
- ramphastidae 4y ago
  > I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. Can you elaborate? I don’t see how that’s possible unless they started work in their early 20s, have been maxing their retirement, never had an accident or have been unemployed, made incredible investment decisions, and are now 60+? Even then I dont see how it’s possible for blue collar folks. Well into 8 figures is like … at least 30 million.
  - ethanbond 4y ago
    Assuming it is possible (it's probably not), it certainly wouldn't be possible without the luck of having been in an insanely strong market for whatever blue-collar trade (allegedly) got them there.
  - cduzz 4y ago
    This sounds like a classic "small business owner" success story. One can imagine a scenario where a person owning a landscaping, construction, vehicle repair, or similar business starts out with "can do a thing" and also is good at "get other people to do thing" and "operate / scale business without accidentally going out of business" and so they scale from doing to overseeing to organizing and eventually end up with a business that's got some substantial value. Having been involved in small businesses, it's exhausting and often times it's simply impossible to transition from "doing" to "overseeing" (hiring people to do things is much harder than you'd imagine) and there are plenty of easy ways to accidentally blow the whole thing up. But if it works out, it can work out really well.
  - jandrewrogers 4y ago
    Start a small blue-collar business doing what you know, be good at it, and iterate. It compounds over decades through good times and bad times. Everyone I know that has built their wealth this way is insanely hardworking but they keep at it, creating value little by little. This is the "construction worker becomes general contractor" story or the equivalent in many boring blue-collar businesses. I have a few of these in my extended family and seen how they've done it over my life. It is repeatable but I don't think many people would put in the level of work required and it is a slow, long game. Maxing retirement is easier but it also won't buy you beautiful estates on three continents. The people that do this also never really stop doing it in my experience, their work becomes a part of who they are.
- actually_a_dog 4y ago
  That’s not true. To start with, you have a huge leg up being born in a place where opportunities such as getting a PhD in physics (to take the GP post example) are available, or even in a place where schools that can prepare one to go to university in order to even think about such things. It also helps a lot to grow up in an environment that’s supportive of such things. How can you “hard work” yourself into any of that?
- SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
  It is lucky they didn’t have a calamity that affected their personal finances, particularly in blue collar where injuries are relatively common. I’ve heard it takes 7 years of no unexpected expenses to grind oneself out of poverty. That means no healthcare scares, no dependents, no victim of crime, not even a car breaking down randomly.
- epicureanideal 4y ago
  I’d be very interested in hearing how a blue collar grinder can get to 8 figures.
  - sidlls 4y ago
    Luck and/or violations of civil/criminal law (e.g. tax shenanigans, shortcutting regulations in things like contracting/plumbing/etc., and so on). Blue collar grinds to wealth are mostly fantasy. There is a large amount of luck involved: friends/family helping build the business, market conditions, location, etc. That hard work is also required doesn't mean luck didn't play a role (and outsized at that).
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- 1659447091 4y ago
  > They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky. Being born in, or allowed passage into, a society that allowed one to do so in the first place is considerably lucky.
  - 1659447091 4y ago
    Added to clarify: To say "nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky" is overlooking what Warren Buffet would call the "ovarian lottery" [0]. The average woman born into, say a rural Taliban stronghold and conservative household with many brothers and uncles is unlikely to ever have even a remote chance at being able to "work hard and smart" to become independently wealthy. So if not being born into that situation, is not considered lucky in terms of being able to create wealth, then are we only talking about luck after that fact? Just chopping off that inconvenient truth because it is so far removed from the blue-collar working class that grinds their way to a decent retirement? I come from a blue-collar working class family from the US mid-west that were heavily involved in the old union movements, and ignoring the above truths is something I was raised to believe - because "anything is possible with hard work and elbow grease". Sure, as long as you are lucky enough to be able to do so in the first place, but I guess that's not considered luck here? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/warren-buffett-says-being-a-white-man-helped-him-succeed.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/warren-buffett-says-being-a-...
- webmaven 4y ago
  > It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky. Simply avoiding major adverse life events is also a form of luck, as are a whole host of other environmental factors.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
A few mil is very wealthy? I thought it's what every SV code monkey has at 35.
- sidlls 4y ago
  That may be the picture HN paints. In the real world, "SV code monkey" engineers earn in the very low 6-figures, maybe eventually breaking $200k/year total compensation. Outside of FAANG, they're somewhat better compensated than elsewhere in the country. Within FAANG, most will burn out or plateau around the $250k - $350k total compensation mark. That's certainly affluent, and for the financially literate/careful enough to be "plain old wealthy" (high 6-figure/barely 7-figures after a decade or two). By comparison relatively few, even at FAANG, get to the worth I have unless they've been grinding at FAANG well into their 40s. It does happen, but it's not nearly as common as (perhaps) the picture HN paints implies. Besides that, one must be incredibly lucky to land a FAANG job. Every applicant knows they have to do the leetcode grind and be up on their highly scalable distributed systems design knowledge. There are hundreds of thousands of wanna be FAANG engineers. To be one chosen out of any given round of hiring is sheer luck. The hard work is also required--but it's no harder than any other applicant worked.
WalterBright 4y ago
> hard work It is not about working hard. It is about working smart, i.e. working on the right things. You choose those things, it is not luck.
- neetle 4y ago
  This is literally survivorship bias. I'm sure there were people in the same period, working on a similar problem and they didn't hit the IPO lottery.
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    The startup was a choice people made. The business plan was a choice. Executing the plan (or failing to execute it) was a choice. Accepting a job at a startup is a choice. Choosing to do an IPO is a choice. No lotteries there.
    - neetle 4y ago
      The fact that they came across the start up in the first place had no element of luck? The fact that they were born with the genetics to be smart enough to contribute to it was fully within their control? The fact that they weren't killed in a car accident when they were 12 was due to their agency? Success is mostly attributable to luck, and ignoring that is just an exercise in outsized ego & shows a sense of agency that borders on the absurd.
      - WalterBright 4y ago
        > The fact that they came across the start up in the first place had no element of luck? Did they "come across" it in their mom's basement? > The fact that they were born with the genetics to be smart enough to contribute to it was fully within their control? You don't need to be a genius to be successful. Doing drugs and alcohol is also sure to reduce your smarts. > The fact that they weren't killed in a car accident when they were 12 was due to their agency? You can blame your parents for your life up until 18. After that, it's up to you. > Success is mostly attributable to luck, and ignoring that is just an exercise in outsized ego & shows a sense of agency that borders on the absurd. Baloney. Successful people 1) make their own luck 2) make it easy for luck to find them.

by sidlls 4y ago

jandrewrogers 4y ago

Many people with your net worth grind it out without any windfalls, the product of consistent hard work and reasonable choices over decades. It was always a possibility. Most people don't require an IPO to achieve that. Luck can accelerate that outcome but it is not necessary in any meaningful sense. It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky.

Teever 4y ago
Yes, and for every one of those people, there's at least a child or two of theirs who again is back to the completely lucked out scenario because they were born to into a wealthy life, so in the end, it seems like luck plays more of a factor in success than hard work.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Luck, like capital, is all about compounding.
ramphastidae 4y ago
> I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. Can you elaborate? I don’t see how that’s possible unless they started work in their early 20s, have been maxing their retirement, never had an accident or have been unemployed, made incredible investment decisions, and are now 60+? Even then I dont see how it’s possible for blue collar folks. Well into 8 figures is like … at least 30 million.
- ethanbond 4y ago
  Assuming it is possible (it's probably not), it certainly wouldn't be possible without the luck of having been in an insanely strong market for whatever blue-collar trade (allegedly) got them there.
- cduzz 4y ago
  This sounds like a classic "small business owner" success story. One can imagine a scenario where a person owning a landscaping, construction, vehicle repair, or similar business starts out with "can do a thing" and also is good at "get other people to do thing" and "operate / scale business without accidentally going out of business" and so they scale from doing to overseeing to organizing and eventually end up with a business that's got some substantial value. Having been involved in small businesses, it's exhausting and often times it's simply impossible to transition from "doing" to "overseeing" (hiring people to do things is much harder than you'd imagine) and there are plenty of easy ways to accidentally blow the whole thing up. But if it works out, it can work out really well.
- jandrewrogers 4y ago
  Start a small blue-collar business doing what you know, be good at it, and iterate. It compounds over decades through good times and bad times. Everyone I know that has built their wealth this way is insanely hardworking but they keep at it, creating value little by little. This is the "construction worker becomes general contractor" story or the equivalent in many boring blue-collar businesses. I have a few of these in my extended family and seen how they've done it over my life. It is repeatable but I don't think many people would put in the level of work required and it is a slow, long game. Maxing retirement is easier but it also won't buy you beautiful estates on three continents. The people that do this also never really stop doing it in my experience, their work becomes a part of who they are.
actually_a_dog 4y ago
That’s not true. To start with, you have a huge leg up being born in a place where opportunities such as getting a PhD in physics (to take the GP post example) are available, or even in a place where schools that can prepare one to go to university in order to even think about such things. It also helps a lot to grow up in an environment that’s supportive of such things. How can you “hard work” yourself into any of that?
SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
It is lucky they didn’t have a calamity that affected their personal finances, particularly in blue collar where injuries are relatively common. I’ve heard it takes 7 years of no unexpected expenses to grind oneself out of poverty. That means no healthcare scares, no dependents, no victim of crime, not even a car breaking down randomly.
epicureanideal 4y ago
I’d be very interested in hearing how a blue collar grinder can get to 8 figures.
- sidlls 4y ago
  Luck and/or violations of civil/criminal law (e.g. tax shenanigans, shortcutting regulations in things like contracting/plumbing/etc., and so on). Blue collar grinds to wealth are mostly fantasy. There is a large amount of luck involved: friends/family helping build the business, market conditions, location, etc. That hard work is also required doesn't mean luck didn't play a role (and outsized at that).
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
1659447091 4y ago
> They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky. Being born in, or allowed passage into, a society that allowed one to do so in the first place is considerably lucky.
- 1659447091 4y ago
  Added to clarify: To say "nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky" is overlooking what Warren Buffet would call the "ovarian lottery" [0]. The average woman born into, say a rural Taliban stronghold and conservative household with many brothers and uncles is unlikely to ever have even a remote chance at being able to "work hard and smart" to become independently wealthy. So if not being born into that situation, is not considered lucky in terms of being able to create wealth, then are we only talking about luck after that fact? Just chopping off that inconvenient truth because it is so far removed from the blue-collar working class that grinds their way to a decent retirement? I come from a blue-collar working class family from the US mid-west that were heavily involved in the old union movements, and ignoring the above truths is something I was raised to believe - because "anything is possible with hard work and elbow grease". Sure, as long as you are lucky enough to be able to do so in the first place, but I guess that's not considered luck here? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/warren-buffett-says-being-a-white-man-helped-him-succeed.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/warren-buffett-says-being-a-...
webmaven 4y ago
> It requires significantly greater extremes of wealth before luck plays a more frequent role. I know people well into 8-figures who were never anything more than blue-collar grinders. They worked hard and smart for decades with nothing that you could identify as being particularly lucky. Simply avoiding major adverse life events is also a form of luck, as are a whole host of other environmental factors.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago

A few mil is very wealthy? I thought it's what every SV code monkey has at 35.

sidlls 4y ago
That may be the picture HN paints. In the real world, "SV code monkey" engineers earn in the very low 6-figures, maybe eventually breaking $200k/year total compensation. Outside of FAANG, they're somewhat better compensated than elsewhere in the country. Within FAANG, most will burn out or plateau around the $250k - $350k total compensation mark. That's certainly affluent, and for the financially literate/careful enough to be "plain old wealthy" (high 6-figure/barely 7-figures after a decade or two). By comparison relatively few, even at FAANG, get to the worth I have unless they've been grinding at FAANG well into their 40s. It does happen, but it's not nearly as common as (perhaps) the picture HN paints implies. Besides that, one must be incredibly lucky to land a FAANG job. Every applicant knows they have to do the leetcode grind and be up on their highly scalable distributed systems design knowledge. There are hundreds of thousands of wanna be FAANG engineers. To be one chosen out of any given round of hiring is sheer luck. The hard work is also required--but it's no harder than any other applicant worked.

WalterBright 4y ago

> hard work It is not about working hard. It is about working smart, i.e. working on the right things. You choose those things, it is not luck.

neetle 4y ago
This is literally survivorship bias. I'm sure there were people in the same period, working on a similar problem and they didn't hit the IPO lottery.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  The startup was a choice people made. The business plan was a choice. Executing the plan (or failing to execute it) was a choice. Accepting a job at a startup is a choice. Choosing to do an IPO is a choice. No lotteries there.
  - neetle 4y ago
    The fact that they came across the start up in the first place had no element of luck? The fact that they were born with the genetics to be smart enough to contribute to it was fully within their control? The fact that they weren't killed in a car accident when they were 12 was due to their agency? Success is mostly attributable to luck, and ignoring that is just an exercise in outsized ego & shows a sense of agency that borders on the absurd.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      > The fact that they came across the start up in the first place had no element of luck? Did they "come across" it in their mom's basement? > The fact that they were born with the genetics to be smart enough to contribute to it was fully within their control? You don't need to be a genius to be successful. Doing drugs and alcohol is also sure to reduce your smarts. > The fact that they weren't killed in a car accident when they were 12 was due to their agency? You can blame your parents for your life up until 18. After that, it's up to you. > Success is mostly attributable to luck, and ignoring that is just an exercise in outsized ego & shows a sense of agency that borders on the absurd. Baloney. Successful people 1) make their own luck 2) make it easy for luck to find them.