4 ms·

I’d add that there’s also somewhat of a random evolutionary walk in the way an individual’s intrinsic qualities end up aligning (or not) with the skills, values

by maegul 4y ago

I’d add that there’s also somewhat of a random evolutionary walk in the way an individual’s intrinsic qualities end up aligning (or not) with the skills, values, temperaments and opportunities of their environment. Even how they match the needs and values of their historical time and culture can matter. This is beyond just plane nature-nurture, but stressing the importance of random “right place right time” dynamics across the whole “production value” process. If you’re intrinsically capable but never quite work out what you “want to do” or what works for you, for example, no matter how conscientious or committed, you will easily find yourself not as “productive” as those who’ve taken clearer paths.

bnralt 4y ago
It's a good point. Also being slotted into the proper path when your capabilities are still forming and you know very little about the world. I know a lot of extremely smart and capable people that ended up stuck in dead end jobs because they were pursuing the wrong thing as a young adult (often, their "dreams"), and by the time they realized it no one was interested in giving them a chance to prove themselves in another field. Some eventually lucked out and were at the right place and time where someone gave them the opportunity, and were eventually able to minimum wage jobs to high-paying executive jobs in the span of a few years. Others never got that shot and were stuck where they were. I've heard people lament that they worry about all the Einsteins out there who will never be able to reach their potential because they're plowing fields in underdeveloped countries. But in our own society it's likely that most Einsteins would never make it out of the patent office.
- maegul 4y ago
  Yep, agreed. Kinda alluded to in my "random walk" metaphor. On the "Einsteins", you could go further and ask what happens to the ones that just lucked out and couldn't get the patent job? What if they needed to eat and therefore took whatever job they could get which happened to pay well? It feels trite to me to point out life vagaries like this, but as we're all stressing, it really is fundamental, IMO, to understanding the lack of correlations between "success" and "intrinsic quality". Finding and getting on a good path for yourself is tricky, and, on the personal side of things, sure as hell was not stressed nearly enough in my youth.
metacritic12 4y ago
As Warren Buffett famously said, he's so wealthy because he happens to be born into a society with a well-developed but modestly inefficient stock market, and that's the area he likes to obsess about. He reckons that less than 10% of historical humanity has had such a chance. Would Bill Gates be anywhere near his earnings if his dad made him go to law school and he had a good time suing people? Would Carl Icahn just been a happy doctor if he wasn't so afraid of germs to drop out of medical school?

by maegul 4y ago

bnralt 4y ago

It's a good point. Also being slotted into the proper path when your capabilities are still forming and you know very little about the world. I know a lot of extremely smart and capable people that ended up stuck in dead end jobs because they were pursuing the wrong thing as a young adult (often, their "dreams"), and by the time they realized it no one was interested in giving them a chance to prove themselves in another field. Some eventually lucked out and were at the right place and time where someone gave them the opportunity, and were eventually able to minimum wage jobs to high-paying executive jobs in the span of a few years. Others never got that shot and were stuck where they were. I've heard people lament that they worry about all the Einsteins out there who will never be able to reach their potential because they're plowing fields in underdeveloped countries. But in our own society it's likely that most Einsteins would never make it out of the patent office.

maegul 4y ago
Yep, agreed. Kinda alluded to in my "random walk" metaphor. On the "Einsteins", you could go further and ask what happens to the ones that just lucked out and couldn't get the patent job? What if they needed to eat and therefore took whatever job they could get which happened to pay well? It feels trite to me to point out life vagaries like this, but as we're all stressing, it really is fundamental, IMO, to understanding the lack of correlations between "success" and "intrinsic quality". Finding and getting on a good path for yourself is tricky, and, on the personal side of things, sure as hell was not stressed nearly enough in my youth.

metacritic12 4y ago

As Warren Buffett famously said, he's so wealthy because he happens to be born into a society with a well-developed but modestly inefficient stock market, and that's the area he likes to obsess about. He reckons that less than 10% of historical humanity has had such a chance. Would Bill Gates be anywhere near his earnings if his dad made him go to law school and he had a good time suing people? Would Carl Icahn just been a happy doctor if he wasn't so afraid of germs to drop out of medical school?