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The constant need to assume ill intent from China increasingly leads to outlandish conclusions which are simply unlikely to be true. In the space of 24 hours, t

The constant need to assume ill intent from China increasingly leads to outlandish conclusions which are simply unlikely to be true. In the space of 24 hours, the US media has moved from hyperventilating over what has been described as an audacious transgression of national sovereignty, to now a recasting of the story as ridiculously childish attempt to spy on the country. Schrodinger's China again, alternatively the most awesome threat to the rule based order, or a clownish country on the brink of guaranteed collapse. There is no wonder why we have amazing consistent record of 'getting China wrong' going back decades. This is a weather ballon, that had a malfunction of its flight termination software.

neom 4y ago
I think it's very strange that the US top brass has come out and said it's unequivocally not a weather ballon, I'm inclined to believe China as it's what makes most sense. On the other hand, the US doesn't have much to gain from escalating tensions with China, and I don't think they would bother to tow a line just to "save face" or anything like that so I'm generally left confused. They should really figure out how to bring it down and then tell us what's in it rather than just saying "for reasons we know 100% it's a spy balloon not a weather balloon". Super weird situation imo.
- giardini 4y ago
  It is likely phoning home and they've intercepted the transmissions and/or emissions (active radar/sonar/laser scans from the device). IMO easier to shroud it (drop a net/mylar sheet on it) and bring it down slowly in some podunk part of the US.
  - neom 4y ago
    Scanning/Detection would explain why it needs proximity to land, it doesn't make a lot of sense that it's taking picture. You'd think though... if China wanted to scan/detect in the US at low altitude, they'd throw something in the back of an Air China flight, or just... drive near the site with a vehicle. A lot of things about it being a surveillance system don't really add up imo. re: shooting it "We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting."

neom 4y ago

I think it's very strange that the US top brass has come out and said it's unequivocally not a weather ballon, I'm inclined to believe China as it's what makes most sense. On the other hand, the US doesn't have much to gain from escalating tensions with China, and I don't think they would bother to tow a line just to "save face" or anything like that so I'm generally left confused. They should really figure out how to bring it down and then tell us what's in it rather than just saying "for reasons we know 100% it's a spy balloon not a weather balloon". Super weird situation imo.

giardini 4y ago
It is likely phoning home and they've intercepted the transmissions and/or emissions (active radar/sonar/laser scans from the device). IMO easier to shroud it (drop a net/mylar sheet on it) and bring it down slowly in some podunk part of the US.
- neom 4y ago
  Scanning/Detection would explain why it needs proximity to land, it doesn't make a lot of sense that it's taking picture. You'd think though... if China wanted to scan/detect in the US at low altitude, they'd throw something in the back of an Air China flight, or just... drive near the site with a vehicle. A lot of things about it being a surveillance system don't really add up imo. re: shooting it "We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting."