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Be glad you are an outsider looking in. The UK governments own analysis says there will be a 15% drop in trade with the EU over 5 years (this was in 2022) [1].

Be glad you are an outsider looking in. The UK governments own analysis says there will be a 15% drop in trade with the EU over 5 years (this was in 2022) [1]. New trade deals already "done" with countries outside the EU are either a copy and paste of the existing EU deal (Japan) or very limited and rushed (Australia) so they will have almost no impact in offsetting the 15% drop. Actual replacement trade deals (with the US for example) will take many years of negotiation and may not ever happen. Small/medium size businesses have to deal with EU customs as a 3rd country now. So the cost of selling into the the largest free-trade single market in the world, right on your doorstep, is too high for direct sales to be in any way competitive. Any company serious about selling goods into the EU has to pay for warehousing in the EU somewhere, and sell from an EU subsidiary to avoid the massive admin overhead and delayed shipments. Larger businesses can soak up the costs of warehousing (or they had them already), so the main affect of Brexit is to cripple small UK businesses that are now expected to sell to south-east Asia, or something. This is many billions of lost tax revenue due to the reduced economic growth. The social cost is what most "remainers" are annoyed about. Having EU citizenship stolen away from you and your children, now only the rich can easily work, study or retire abroad again, just like it should be i guess... And the matter is not even settled, support for remaining in the EU has risen significantly, that's what a 48/52 result in a fudged referendum does, divide a country. [1] https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#future https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexi...

Alupis 4y ago
One has to think, the drop is trade must be temporary and out of spite (from the EU side), since if the UK had goods other EU nations wanted to import just a few years ago, then they surely still want to import them today. > now only the rich can work or retire abroad again This is the same for almost all countries though, isn't it? As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either (without visas and what-not). Perhaps time will tell if this ultimately was good or not. I can understand both sides of the issue - remaining an independent nation and suffering the costs an independent nation must endure, or join a federated government and effectively become a State (in US speak) within the EU.
- phatfish 4y ago
  It could be interpreted as spite, but the real reason is that the EU is not going to make an exception to single market access for the UK. All the EU member states had to agree to the deal negotiated so it becomes very bureaucratic, this can be good and bad. The goods that the UK has that other EU nations wanted are being replaced by other EU nations. They are now more competitive than UK businesses that have to deal with EU customs checks and other bureaucracy/taxes on a per-country basis. You can say it is "protectionist", which is what certain politicians in the UK like to cast the single market as now, but this is how every economy in the world is run. The US market is protected too. > As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either. True, but as a UK citizen i COULD before 2019. As a US citizen you can work/study/retire in any US state. Would you be happy if that was taken away? The member states of the EU are still independent nations, they are not controlled by a federal government like the US. Getting into EU lawmaking is a rabbit hole, but my feeling is there is a give and take that overall benefits the member states. At the end of they day each country still controls it's own destiny, as the UK felt it needed to prove.
  - Alupis 4y ago
    From an outside perspective, it feels like we're witnessing a slow formation of a new super-nation, called the EU, with many member states, such as Germany, France, etc. It likely would not take a whole lot for member nations to cede enough power to the EU and make that a reality - either intentionally or unintentionally, gradually or all at once. Within the US, State's rights and powers have been slowly eroded over the years as well - with a surprising number of people supporting increased centralized power within the US federal government. People already refer to the EU like it's a singular entity. I wonder if this will become a reality in the not-so-distance future. There's pro's and con's to that, of course, much like States within the US.
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      > It likely would not take a whole lot for member nations to cede enough power to the EU and make that a reality Its currently impossible and would take decades - each country has seperate army that speaks a different language, has vigorous national identity. It has sovereign government and paliaments. There is nothing EU can do to compell a member state to do anything it doesnt want to do. EU is like a big mega-trade deal more than a government. Currently Hingary and Poland are flouting EU laws on democracy, the executive jas seized control of the courts and EU can do nothing about it.

Alupis 4y ago

One has to think, the drop is trade must be temporary and out of spite (from the EU side), since if the UK had goods other EU nations wanted to import just a few years ago, then they surely still want to import them today. > now only the rich can work or retire abroad again This is the same for almost all countries though, isn't it? As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either (without visas and what-not). Perhaps time will tell if this ultimately was good or not. I can understand both sides of the issue - remaining an independent nation and suffering the costs an independent nation must endure, or join a federated government and effectively become a State (in US speak) within the EU.

phatfish 4y ago
It could be interpreted as spite, but the real reason is that the EU is not going to make an exception to single market access for the UK. All the EU member states had to agree to the deal negotiated so it becomes very bureaucratic, this can be good and bad. The goods that the UK has that other EU nations wanted are being replaced by other EU nations. They are now more competitive than UK businesses that have to deal with EU customs checks and other bureaucracy/taxes on a per-country basis. You can say it is "protectionist", which is what certain politicians in the UK like to cast the single market as now, but this is how every economy in the world is run. The US market is protected too. > As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either. True, but as a UK citizen i COULD before 2019. As a US citizen you can work/study/retire in any US state. Would you be happy if that was taken away? The member states of the EU are still independent nations, they are not controlled by a federal government like the US. Getting into EU lawmaking is a rabbit hole, but my feeling is there is a give and take that overall benefits the member states. At the end of they day each country still controls it's own destiny, as the UK felt it needed to prove.
- Alupis 4y ago
  From an outside perspective, it feels like we're witnessing a slow formation of a new super-nation, called the EU, with many member states, such as Germany, France, etc. It likely would not take a whole lot for member nations to cede enough power to the EU and make that a reality - either intentionally or unintentionally, gradually or all at once. Within the US, State's rights and powers have been slowly eroded over the years as well - with a surprising number of people supporting increased centralized power within the US federal government. People already refer to the EU like it's a singular entity. I wonder if this will become a reality in the not-so-distance future. There's pro's and con's to that, of course, much like States within the US.
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    > It likely would not take a whole lot for member nations to cede enough power to the EU and make that a reality Its currently impossible and would take decades - each country has seperate army that speaks a different language, has vigorous national identity. It has sovereign government and paliaments. There is nothing EU can do to compell a member state to do anything it doesnt want to do. EU is like a big mega-trade deal more than a government. Currently Hingary and Poland are flouting EU laws on democracy, the executive jas seized control of the courts and EU can do nothing about it.