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Bad news? From an outsider looking in, all the hullabaloo and doomsday talk seems to have not become reality. What was actually bad about leaving, other than th

by Alupis 4y ago

Bad news? From an outsider looking in, all the hullabaloo and doomsday talk seems to have not become reality. What was actually bad about leaving, other than the optics of it at the time?

bjelkeman-again 4y ago
Serious economic impact. > a 4% shrinkage in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU, expects the Office for Budget Responsibility, inflation is higher than in the EU, trade has fallen by almost a fifth, while the government itself says the much-trumpeted Australian deal will raise GDP by less than 0.1% a year by 2035. Brexit has raised food prices by 6% says the LSE, while draining the workforce. Eurostar also deliberately leaves a third of seats empty due to crippling EU/UK border delays. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/31/three-years-on-brexit-uk-voters-rejoining-eu-labour-europe https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/31/three-... > According to figures from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis – which tracks trends in global trade – UK goods export volumes remained 3.3% below their 2018 average in October, in contrast to an average 4.4% increase seen across all advanced economies. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/31/why-the-uk-economy-is-shrinking-fast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/31/why-the-uk-...
- Alupis 4y ago
  How much of this can be attributed to the pandemic and shutdowns, and not directly to simply not being an EU country anymore? After all, there are plenty of non-EU countries in the general region - is the UK doing worse, average, or better than those nations?
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    The comparison is against peer countries in the EU, like France. The government failed at every level of due dilligence, like it exited EURATOM without agreeing any replacement. It has nothing to do with EU /single market, but they quit it anyway. 99.99% of brexiters didn't know Euratom even exists. UK exited customs union (despite this not being asked at referendun) but to this date has no customs checks because it has not hired officers or built facilities to carry out checks. It has failed to provide France with custom checking facilities at dover, and there were queues for hundreds of miles this summer with truck drivers defecating out in the open. Like some of this is so mad its hard to believe. My cost of sending parcels to EU has tripled overnight.
phatfish 4y ago
Be glad you are an outsider looking in. The UK governments own analysis says there will be a 15% drop in trade with the EU over 5 years (this was in 2022) [1]. New trade deals already "done" with countries outside the EU are either a copy and paste of the existing EU deal (Japan) or very limited and rushed (Australia) so they will have almost no impact in offsetting the 15% drop. Actual replacement trade deals (with the US for example) will take many years of negotiation and may not ever happen. Small/medium size businesses have to deal with EU customs as a 3rd country now. So the cost of selling into the the largest free-trade single market in the world, right on your doorstep, is too high for direct sales to be in any way competitive. Any company serious about selling goods into the EU has to pay for warehousing in the EU somewhere, and sell from an EU subsidiary to avoid the massive admin overhead and delayed shipments. Larger businesses can soak up the costs of warehousing (or they had them already), so the main affect of Brexit is to cripple small UK businesses that are now expected to sell to south-east Asia, or something. This is many billions of lost tax revenue due to the reduced economic growth. The social cost is what most "remainers" are annoyed about. Having EU citizenship stolen away from you and your children, now only the rich can easily work, study or retire abroad again, just like it should be i guess... And the matter is not even settled, support for remaining in the EU has risen significantly, that's what a 48/52 result in a fudged referendum does, divide a country. [1] https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#future https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexi...
- Alupis 4y ago
  One has to think, the drop is trade must be temporary and out of spite (from the EU side), since if the UK had goods other EU nations wanted to import just a few years ago, then they surely still want to import them today. > now only the rich can work or retire abroad again This is the same for almost all countries though, isn't it? As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either (without visas and what-not). Perhaps time will tell if this ultimately was good or not. I can understand both sides of the issue - remaining an independent nation and suffering the costs an independent nation must endure, or join a federated government and effectively become a State (in US speak) within the EU.
johnwalkr 4y ago
Are you serious? I'm also an outsider and everything seems even worse than predicted to me.

by Alupis 4y ago

Bad news? From an outsider looking in, all the hullabaloo and doomsday talk seems to have not become reality. What was actually bad about leaving, other than the optics of it at the time?

bjelkeman-again 4y ago

Serious economic impact. > a 4% shrinkage in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU, expects the Office for Budget Responsibility, inflation is higher than in the EU, trade has fallen by almost a fifth, while the government itself says the much-trumpeted Australian deal will raise GDP by less than 0.1% a year by 2035. Brexit has raised food prices by 6% says the LSE, while draining the workforce. Eurostar also deliberately leaves a third of seats empty due to crippling EU/UK border delays. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/31/three-years-on-brexit-uk-voters-rejoining-eu-labour-europe https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/31/three-... > According to figures from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis – which tracks trends in global trade – UK goods export volumes remained 3.3% below their 2018 average in October, in contrast to an average 4.4% increase seen across all advanced economies. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/31/why-the-uk-economy-is-shrinking-fast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/31/why-the-uk-...

Alupis 4y ago
How much of this can be attributed to the pandemic and shutdowns, and not directly to simply not being an EU country anymore? After all, there are plenty of non-EU countries in the general region - is the UK doing worse, average, or better than those nations?
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  The comparison is against peer countries in the EU, like France. The government failed at every level of due dilligence, like it exited EURATOM without agreeing any replacement. It has nothing to do with EU /single market, but they quit it anyway. 99.99% of brexiters didn't know Euratom even exists. UK exited customs union (despite this not being asked at referendun) but to this date has no customs checks because it has not hired officers or built facilities to carry out checks. It has failed to provide France with custom checking facilities at dover, and there were queues for hundreds of miles this summer with truck drivers defecating out in the open. Like some of this is so mad its hard to believe. My cost of sending parcels to EU has tripled overnight.

phatfish 4y ago

Be glad you are an outsider looking in. The UK governments own analysis says there will be a 15% drop in trade with the EU over 5 years (this was in 2022) [1]. New trade deals already "done" with countries outside the EU are either a copy and paste of the existing EU deal (Japan) or very limited and rushed (Australia) so they will have almost no impact in offsetting the 15% drop. Actual replacement trade deals (with the US for example) will take many years of negotiation and may not ever happen. Small/medium size businesses have to deal with EU customs as a 3rd country now. So the cost of selling into the the largest free-trade single market in the world, right on your doorstep, is too high for direct sales to be in any way competitive. Any company serious about selling goods into the EU has to pay for warehousing in the EU somewhere, and sell from an EU subsidiary to avoid the massive admin overhead and delayed shipments. Larger businesses can soak up the costs of warehousing (or they had them already), so the main affect of Brexit is to cripple small UK businesses that are now expected to sell to south-east Asia, or something. This is many billions of lost tax revenue due to the reduced economic growth. The social cost is what most "remainers" are annoyed about. Having EU citizenship stolen away from you and your children, now only the rich can easily work, study or retire abroad again, just like it should be i guess... And the matter is not even settled, support for remaining in the EU has risen significantly, that's what a 48/52 result in a fudged referendum does, divide a country. [1] https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#future https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexi...

Alupis 4y ago
One has to think, the drop is trade must be temporary and out of spite (from the EU side), since if the UK had goods other EU nations wanted to import just a few years ago, then they surely still want to import them today. > now only the rich can work or retire abroad again This is the same for almost all countries though, isn't it? As a US citizen, I cannot freely just travel across the EU either (without visas and what-not). Perhaps time will tell if this ultimately was good or not. I can understand both sides of the issue - remaining an independent nation and suffering the costs an independent nation must endure, or join a federated government and effectively become a State (in US speak) within the EU.

johnwalkr 4y ago

Are you serious? I'm also an outsider and everything seems even worse than predicted to me.