That $4B number was a huge outlier, though. Here's the FRED graph (which should be a required link any time someone wants to talk about economics numbers): htt

That $4B number was a huge outlier, though. Here's the FRED graph (which should be a required link any time someone wants to talk about economics numbers): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE The combination of restricted consumer economies and extensive government assistance produced a savings boom the likes of which we have basically never seen in the US in the era of modern economic data. And it's over, and so naturally consumers are spending down their bank accounts to the levels that they felt were appropriate before the pandemic. The point is that the current conditions are a much better approximation to "normal economy" than what was happening in 2020/21. You can explain the inflation burp very well via the savings data. But trying to read a recession into it seems IMHO pretty ridiculous.