4 ms·

First agree with timing the market. But I am a bit skeptical about your overall point. Historically this has been true, but many people think we are at an infle

First agree with timing the market. But I am a bit skeptical about your overall point. Historically this has been true, but many people think we are at an inflection point and historical trends might no longer be true. This time is different is certainly often said and rarely correct, but ... this time is different, maybe?

dghlsakjg 4y ago
Good luck, timing the market, and ‘this time is different’ are subcategories of predicting the future. Ask yourself: if you could predict the future, wouldn’t you already have the trading results to prove it?
bob1029 4y ago
The US markets are the most aggressively optimized game theory engines on the face of the planet. The biggest mistake you could ever make is thinking that the prices in the market reflect perceived value of things today. Everyone is playing in 2nd or 3rd order terms, at minimum. Anyone playing first-order is going to get steamrolled unless they have a latency advantage.
stouset 4y ago
> Historically this has been true, but many people think we are at an inflection point and historical trends might no longer be true. This time is different is certainly often said and rarely correct, but ... this time is different, maybe? During the Great Recession we were told that the time of outsized market returns were over. We should expect to no longer see 10% YoY increases and plan around a more modest 3%–4% return for the foreseeable future. Between Jan 1, 2009 and Jan 1, 2023, the market went up like 450%. Including the recent market "bloodbath", we've had a 11%+ annualized return on investment in the stock market since the GR. The moral of the story? Stop listening to people who claim to know what the market is going to do. Even if one of them does, the odds that you'll be able to pick that specific soothsayer out of a lineup is near zero.

dghlsakjg 4y ago

Good luck, timing the market, and ‘this time is different’ are subcategories of predicting the future. Ask yourself: if you could predict the future, wouldn’t you already have the trading results to prove it?

bob1029 4y ago

The US markets are the most aggressively optimized game theory engines on the face of the planet. The biggest mistake you could ever make is thinking that the prices in the market reflect perceived value of things today. Everyone is playing in 2nd or 3rd order terms, at minimum. Anyone playing first-order is going to get steamrolled unless they have a latency advantage.

stouset 4y ago

> Historically this has been true, but many people think we are at an inflection point and historical trends might no longer be true. This time is different is certainly often said and rarely correct, but ... this time is different, maybe? During the Great Recession we were told that the time of outsized market returns were over. We should expect to no longer see 10% YoY increases and plan around a more modest 3%–4% return for the foreseeable future. Between Jan 1, 2009 and Jan 1, 2023, the market went up like 450%. Including the recent market "bloodbath", we've had a 11%+ annualized return on investment in the stock market since the GR. The moral of the story? Stop listening to people who claim to know what the market is going to do. Even if one of them does, the odds that you'll be able to pick that specific soothsayer out of a lineup is near zero.