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Inflation is 50% vs. 2006 Only 15% vs. 2020 This is an 18.5% jump in debt in a period where prices rose about 6.5%. It does not make sense to say that this is

by elil17 4y ago

Inflation is 50% vs. 2006 Only 15% vs. 2020 This is an 18.5% jump in debt in a period where prices rose about 6.5%. It does not make sense to say that this is explained by inflation.

yamtaddle 4y ago
Lots of things have definitely gone up way more than 15% since 2020. My grocery bills are way more than 15% higher, for one. I'd say the 50% estimate's closer, there, despite our downgrading a lot of things we're buying, and once you factor in the awful shrinkflation in many products over that span. Housing (thank god we got locked in well before that) and healthcare costs (for us) are up way more than 15% since 2020. But sure, mediocre TVs are still cheap as hell.
- WheatMillington 4y ago
  Your experience is not supported by the data.
  - yamtaddle 4y ago
    Well the data can refund my account, then. And those of everyone I know.
  - coding123 4y ago
    The data is not shopping at my local Raleys.
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      Your local Raleys jacking up prices locally is not inflation. I've seen people in this forum complain that inflation is bad because their personal choice of cereal doubled in price, but that is not the general case, and that is not inflation.
  - bitcoin_anon 4y ago
    Inflation is a highly politicized topic. The means of calculating it is frequently under revision. The US federal government is massively in debt in $USD terms, so inflation is good for them. On the flip side, they need to convince the world that inflation is under control or they may lose the status of being the world's reserve currency issuer. How can you accomplish both goals? Continue to debase the currency while you fudge the numbers.
    - elil17 4y ago
      > The means of calculating it is frequently under revision. BLS frequently makes changes to how it calculates inflation. However, none of these changes make that big of a difference. I have never seen an economist arguing that inflation is actually 10+ percentage points higher than BLS is reporting. If anything, many economists think BLS overestimates inflation because they do not account for substitution (e.g. people buying fewer eggs when the price goes up).
- everybodyknows 4y ago
  Private health insurance: Up ~15% last year alone, for me.
  - elil17 4y ago
    Inflation accounts for healthcare costs. That is baked into the 6.5% number.
- elil17 4y ago
  Food inflation in 2022 was 10%. Within food, only butter/margarine, eggs, and cafeteria lunches have seen prices rise more than 25%
  - yamtaddle 4y ago
    Jan. 1st 2020 was more than three years ago. Prices are absolutely not up only 15% vs. 2020, which was the claim I was responding to. That's so wildly wrong it's in piss-on-my-leg-and-tell-me-it's-raining territory. > only butter/margarine, eggs But those are cooking staples... sure, you can reduce use to save money, but you can also switch to an all rice and beans diet to save money. It's not like if specifically pork, say, had gone up—sub beef, sub chicken, whatever, cool, not a big deal. Butter and eggs, though?
    - elil17 4y ago
      >Jan. 1st 2020 was more than three years ago. January 1st 2020 was 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days ago. Apologies for rounding. However, that really just pushes (albeit insignificantly) further against the claim that we have experienced 50% inflation over 2-3 years. >Prices are absolutely not up only 15% vs. 2020, which was the claim I was responding to. That's so wildly wrong it's in piss-on-my-leg-and-tell-me-it's-raining territory. On average (across America and across many different goods), they are. Prices may be different in your area or for what you buy (e.g. specific brands, stores, etc.). >But those are cooking staples... sure, you can reduce use to save money, but you can also switch to an all rice and beans diet to save money. It's not like if specifically pork, say, had gone up—sub beef, sub chicken, whatever, cool, not a big deal. Butter and eggs, though? The overall inflation across the average basket of food that American consumers buy over one year was 10%. That figure accounts for the fact that people buy staple goods more than other goods. It also assumes zero substitution (e.g. no change in number of eggs bought). Inflation simply cannot fully explain an 18.5% increase in CC debt for the average American. Perhaps it explains it for you/would explain it for you if you had increased CC debt. But, in that case, you are not representative of the average American.
      - yamtaddle 4y ago
lkbm 4y ago
I know inflation numbers are based on a mix of items, presumably weighted by cost and volume. What might be most relevant here is to filter specifically things that tend to be bought using credit carts: most shopping, but not apartments, houses, cars (I assume)... Of course, if I have to spend more to my rent, I have less for paying off my credit card. But it makes sense to me that if, e.g. rent went up $1000 and food $100, my credit card debt might rise more than if it were the other away around.
- elil17 4y ago
  > presumably weighted by cost and volume Inflation is weighted by the average of what people buy (although it is not quite that simple, because it needs to be the same year-to-year). Inflation less housing is still not even close to 18.5%. The only categories over 18% are energy (e.g. fuel).
aeyes 4y ago
Because inflation affects products which you have to buy to survive, like food, electricity and gas. And if you only look at gas its 90% vs 2020. A lot of people need their car to get to work.

by elil17 4y ago

Inflation is 50% vs. 2006 Only 15% vs. 2020 This is an 18.5% jump in debt in a period where prices rose about 6.5%. It does not make sense to say that this is explained by inflation.

yamtaddle 4y ago

Lots of things have definitely gone up way more than 15% since 2020. My grocery bills are way more than 15% higher, for one. I'd say the 50% estimate's closer, there, despite our downgrading a lot of things we're buying, and once you factor in the awful shrinkflation in many products over that span. Housing (thank god we got locked in well before that) and healthcare costs (for us) are up way more than 15% since 2020. But sure, mediocre TVs are still cheap as hell.

WheatMillington 4y ago
Your experience is not supported by the data.
- yamtaddle 4y ago
  Well the data can refund my account, then. And those of everyone I know.
- coding123 4y ago
  The data is not shopping at my local Raleys.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Your local Raleys jacking up prices locally is not inflation. I've seen people in this forum complain that inflation is bad because their personal choice of cereal doubled in price, but that is not the general case, and that is not inflation.
- bitcoin_anon 4y ago
  Inflation is a highly politicized topic. The means of calculating it is frequently under revision. The US federal government is massively in debt in $USD terms, so inflation is good for them. On the flip side, they need to convince the world that inflation is under control or they may lose the status of being the world's reserve currency issuer. How can you accomplish both goals? Continue to debase the currency while you fudge the numbers.
  - elil17 4y ago
    > The means of calculating it is frequently under revision. BLS frequently makes changes to how it calculates inflation. However, none of these changes make that big of a difference. I have never seen an economist arguing that inflation is actually 10+ percentage points higher than BLS is reporting. If anything, many economists think BLS overestimates inflation because they do not account for substitution (e.g. people buying fewer eggs when the price goes up).
everybodyknows 4y ago
Private health insurance: Up ~15% last year alone, for me.
- elil17 4y ago
  Inflation accounts for healthcare costs. That is baked into the 6.5% number.
elil17 4y ago
Food inflation in 2022 was 10%. Within food, only butter/margarine, eggs, and cafeteria lunches have seen prices rise more than 25%
- yamtaddle 4y ago
  Jan. 1st 2020 was more than three years ago. Prices are absolutely not up only 15% vs. 2020, which was the claim I was responding to. That's so wildly wrong it's in piss-on-my-leg-and-tell-me-it's-raining territory. > only butter/margarine, eggs But those are cooking staples... sure, you can reduce use to save money, but you can also switch to an all rice and beans diet to save money. It's not like if specifically pork, say, had gone up—sub beef, sub chicken, whatever, cool, not a big deal. Butter and eggs, though?
  - elil17 4y ago
    >Jan. 1st 2020 was more than three years ago. January 1st 2020 was 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days ago. Apologies for rounding. However, that really just pushes (albeit insignificantly) further against the claim that we have experienced 50% inflation over 2-3 years. >Prices are absolutely not up only 15% vs. 2020, which was the claim I was responding to. That's so wildly wrong it's in piss-on-my-leg-and-tell-me-it's-raining territory. On average (across America and across many different goods), they are. Prices may be different in your area or for what you buy (e.g. specific brands, stores, etc.). >But those are cooking staples... sure, you can reduce use to save money, but you can also switch to an all rice and beans diet to save money. It's not like if specifically pork, say, had gone up—sub beef, sub chicken, whatever, cool, not a big deal. Butter and eggs, though? The overall inflation across the average basket of food that American consumers buy over one year was 10%. That figure accounts for the fact that people buy staple goods more than other goods. It also assumes zero substitution (e.g. no change in number of eggs bought). Inflation simply cannot fully explain an 18.5% increase in CC debt for the average American. Perhaps it explains it for you/would explain it for you if you had increased CC debt. But, in that case, you are not representative of the average American.
    - yamtaddle 4y ago

lkbm 4y ago

I know inflation numbers are based on a mix of items, presumably weighted by cost and volume. What might be most relevant here is to filter specifically things that tend to be bought using credit carts: most shopping, but not apartments, houses, cars (I assume)... Of course, if I have to spend more to my rent, I have less for paying off my credit card. But it makes sense to me that if, e.g. rent went up $1000 and food $100, my credit card debt might rise more than if it were the other away around.

elil17 4y ago
> presumably weighted by cost and volume Inflation is weighted by the average of what people buy (although it is not quite that simple, because it needs to be the same year-to-year). Inflation less housing is still not even close to 18.5%. The only categories over 18% are energy (e.g. fuel).

aeyes 4y ago

Because inflation affects products which you have to buy to survive, like food, electricity and gas. And if you only look at gas its 90% vs 2020. A lot of people need their car to get to work.