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Can you explain what the "the post AGI full UBI era" means? I assume AGI refers to the company that got bailed out in 2008. I'm less clear on who is getting f

Can you explain what the "the post AGI full UBI era" means? I assume AGI refers to the company that got bailed out in 2008. I'm less clear on who is getting full UBI? I have yet to find a person or company that is getting full UBI.

qualudeheart 4y ago
You would do well to browse the threads discussing advanced forms of artificial intelligence. Artificial General Intelligence, AGI, is artificial intelligence that can perform any cognitive task that humans can perform at a human level or higher. It’s commonly predicted by people like Robin Hanson and Elon Musk that such intelligences would dominate the workforce. Most people will eventually become unemployable as it is always possible for a machine to perform their job cheaper. I’ve predicted that the State and private entities will build welfare programs or UBI. This will be done for political reasons, as the most probable alternative would be civilization scale chaos on par with any Communist revolution of the last century. Such programs will also allow those with power to cement their power further, as the recipients of welfare could not afford to bite the hand that feeds them.
- chollida1 4y ago
  Ha, as the other commenter pointed out, I was way off and misread the Acronym. I appreciate the time you took to educate me:)
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  > always possible for a machine to perform their job cheaper. > the State and private entities will build welfare programs or UBI. These two things don't seem to add up. If you're paying the person anyway why not have them do a job? It's not as if the labor of the AGI is free. The only way this would make any kind of economic sense is if the labor of the AGI is so superior to the human that it effectively creates additional value that compensates for the friction of having both the working AGI and the compensated, but non-working human. And in that case you need to start factoring in all of the externalities (including psychological welfare of the jobless human). Edit to add: If an AGI is so good, can't it come up with productive jobs that are better done by humans than by it? Or is this kind of like the "can god make a mountain that he can't lift?" question?
  - qualudeheart 4y ago
    I spent 10 minutes typing a response and then my browser lost it. The gist was that some industries could still employ humans where humans have a decisive comparative advantage, as the customer wants the job the done by a human. This includes social work and production of luxury goods. In industries in which there is no human comparative advantage, humans could still be given jobs for philanthropic reasons. Charitable housing projects might also require tenants to work. A billionaire might buy an apartment complex, let you live there for free, pay you a few hundred dollars per month, but make you work because the billionaire thinks work is good for you.
    - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
      Great news! In the future we can go back to the wonderful world of paternal feudalism! :( I sympathize over the browser issue.
      - qualudeheart 4y ago
        I don’t think it’s good news myself. I’m in sufficiently wealthy circles to just ask old friends for money. Most other people aren’t, and I’m sure all kinds of abusive cult dynamics will spring up. On net it might be worse than the power dynamics between employee and employer, as employees have more freedom to just walk away. The power dynamics may more closely resemble those between child and parent. Parents also provide their children with housing and money, and impose personal social norms on them.
  - JoeAltmaier 4y ago
    To beat an old drum: the highest good of human life isn't to work like a slave until you die. Fiction used to write about how robots would lift the yoke of labor from our shoulders, so we could all live our better lives. Now that it's happening, all folks can think of is how to make sure everybody is still slaving away somehow. Because the alternative - most of us don't have to do that - is unthinkable to the older generation.
    - 4y ago
actionablefiber 4y ago
You're thinking of AIG.
- chollida1 4y ago
  Oh man I was:) Am I ever embarrassed:)
  - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
    Whenever I see "AG" at the beginning of a three-letter acronym I think "Anthropogenic Global". So don't feel bad, I didn't get it either.
- qualudeheart 4y ago
  At least it’s not Artificially Intelligent Girl, which will be the name of my forthcoming Replika competitor.

qualudeheart 4y ago

You would do well to browse the threads discussing advanced forms of artificial intelligence. Artificial General Intelligence, AGI, is artificial intelligence that can perform any cognitive task that humans can perform at a human level or higher. It’s commonly predicted by people like Robin Hanson and Elon Musk that such intelligences would dominate the workforce. Most people will eventually become unemployable as it is always possible for a machine to perform their job cheaper. I’ve predicted that the State and private entities will build welfare programs or UBI. This will be done for political reasons, as the most probable alternative would be civilization scale chaos on par with any Communist revolution of the last century. Such programs will also allow those with power to cement their power further, as the recipients of welfare could not afford to bite the hand that feeds them.

chollida1 4y ago
Ha, as the other commenter pointed out, I was way off and misread the Acronym. I appreciate the time you took to educate me:)
anonymouskimmer 4y ago
> always possible for a machine to perform their job cheaper. > the State and private entities will build welfare programs or UBI. These two things don't seem to add up. If you're paying the person anyway why not have them do a job? It's not as if the labor of the AGI is free. The only way this would make any kind of economic sense is if the labor of the AGI is so superior to the human that it effectively creates additional value that compensates for the friction of having both the working AGI and the compensated, but non-working human. And in that case you need to start factoring in all of the externalities (including psychological welfare of the jobless human). Edit to add: If an AGI is so good, can't it come up with productive jobs that are better done by humans than by it? Or is this kind of like the "can god make a mountain that he can't lift?" question?
- qualudeheart 4y ago
  I spent 10 minutes typing a response and then my browser lost it. The gist was that some industries could still employ humans where humans have a decisive comparative advantage, as the customer wants the job the done by a human. This includes social work and production of luxury goods. In industries in which there is no human comparative advantage, humans could still be given jobs for philanthropic reasons. Charitable housing projects might also require tenants to work. A billionaire might buy an apartment complex, let you live there for free, pay you a few hundred dollars per month, but make you work because the billionaire thinks work is good for you.
  - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
    Great news! In the future we can go back to the wonderful world of paternal feudalism! :( I sympathize over the browser issue.
    - qualudeheart 4y ago
      I don’t think it’s good news myself. I’m in sufficiently wealthy circles to just ask old friends for money. Most other people aren’t, and I’m sure all kinds of abusive cult dynamics will spring up. On net it might be worse than the power dynamics between employee and employer, as employees have more freedom to just walk away. The power dynamics may more closely resemble those between child and parent. Parents also provide their children with housing and money, and impose personal social norms on them.
- JoeAltmaier 4y ago
  To beat an old drum: the highest good of human life isn't to work like a slave until you die. Fiction used to write about how robots would lift the yoke of labor from our shoulders, so we could all live our better lives. Now that it's happening, all folks can think of is how to make sure everybody is still slaving away somehow. Because the alternative - most of us don't have to do that - is unthinkable to the older generation.
  - 4y ago

actionablefiber 4y ago

You're thinking of AIG.

chollida1 4y ago
Oh man I was:) Am I ever embarrassed:)
- anonymouskimmer 4y ago
  Whenever I see "AG" at the beginning of a three-letter acronym I think "Anthropogenic Global". So don't feel bad, I didn't get it either.
qualudeheart 4y ago
At least it’s not Artificially Intelligent Girl, which will be the name of my forthcoming Replika competitor.