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[strikeout]Powell said yesterday that the current issue is in services, and he named housing in particular. Interest rates must increase until they meaningfully

[strikeout]Powell said yesterday that the current issue is in services, and he named housing in particular. Interest rates must increase until they meaningfully lower housing prices. Otherwise, rent and housing will just keep sucking up the wage growth.[/strikeout] You can see here how, despite nominal wage growth, real disposable income hasn't improved since pre covid: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

dragontamer 4y ago
> Interest rates must increase until they meaningfully lower housing prices. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon... > We are seeing the effects of our policy actions on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing. Main speech, page 3. > and he named housing in particular. He named "X-housing", which means "ignoring housing". Housing is doing well. Its everything _EXCEPT_ housing that's doing poorly right now. Press Conference section, page 8. > The inflation in the core services X housing is still running at 4 percent on a 6- and 12-month basis. -------- So housing inflation has stopped (and anybody shopping for a house would realize that prices are no longer going up, but have begun to drop). Meanwhile, everything else in our economy seems to still be going up in price. That's bad, but Powell notes that these other sections of the economy take "longer" for the Fed Rate hikes to kick in. So they're going to slow down the rate hikes and see where the current trajectory takes us. IE: ~5%ish terminal rate in the near term. More data needed to evaluate the long term. ------ > Powell said yesterday While I'm being pedantic... Powell said it on Wednesday... which was two days ago :-)
- bitshiftfaced 4y ago
  Thanks

dragontamer 4y ago

> Interest rates must increase until they meaningfully lower housing prices. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon... > We are seeing the effects of our policy actions on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing. Main speech, page 3. > and he named housing in particular. He named "X-housing", which means "ignoring housing". Housing is doing well. Its everything _EXCEPT_ housing that's doing poorly right now. Press Conference section, page 8. > The inflation in the core services X housing is still running at 4 percent on a 6- and 12-month basis. -------- So housing inflation has stopped (and anybody shopping for a house would realize that prices are no longer going up, but have begun to drop). Meanwhile, everything else in our economy seems to still be going up in price. That's bad, but Powell notes that these other sections of the economy take "longer" for the Fed Rate hikes to kick in. So they're going to slow down the rate hikes and see where the current trajectory takes us. IE: ~5%ish terminal rate in the near term. More data needed to evaluate the long term. ------ > Powell said yesterday While I'm being pedantic... Powell said it on Wednesday... which was two days ago :-)

bitshiftfaced 4y ago
Thanks