On an actuarial basis, how likely are children of this age group walking to a store in the suburbs likely to be a) approached by sex offenders trying to abuse t

On an actuarial basis, how likely are children of this age group walking to a store in the suburbs likely to be a) approached by sex offenders trying to abuse them and b) either kidnapped or abused by strangers after being approached? My hunch is that being exposed to a small amount of anecdata warps our perception of these types of problems, and police are not immune from this type of bias. Although I could also be wrong on this hunch.