4 ms·

Should they chill though? I'm sure Google has the talent to match ChatGPT but their fundamental business model relies on sending people to the highest bidder an

by mrtksn 4y ago

Should they chill though? I'm sure Google has the talent to match ChatGPT but their fundamental business model relies on sending people to the highest bidder and this maybe works when everything else is spam and ad infested hellhole but ChatGPT style AIs value comes from the high quality user experience which is not driven by the highest bidder. What if answering machine business is just a few billion dollars business and completely removed the need of search? What if it is a kind of business that makes hundreds of billions but makes it through selling the product itself? This is fundamentally different from what Google offers.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Any FANNG company has the talent to match ChatGPT several times over. The idea that maybe Microsoft or Apple or Google or FB doesn't have enough good engineers to code a best-in-class language model is absurd. They all have orders of magnitude more data than OpenAI to build a better model, though.
- thomas_ma 4y ago
  I think most people agree with you that Google can beat OpenAI on the eng/tech. Scary part for Google is: how do you monetize it? They might “beat” OpenAI with a better chat AI, but if that cannibalizes their $100bn search ad business…they are in trouble
  - midasuni 4y ago
    Better google cannibaliser it than someone else. Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market. Google built a great search engine long before they worked out how to monetise it properly. If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will, and google will go the way of zune.
    - pharmakom 4y ago
      Zune wasn’t the incumbent though.
    - htag 4y ago
      > Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market. This is a terrible example. Everyone knew cell phones were a bigger market than mobile MP3 players, Apple was using this mobile expertise gained in iPod to move to a larger market. We don't know if ChatGPT will be a larger market than search currently is. Digital cameras (include sensors used in webcams and cellphones) are currently a smaller market than selling film was at peak. If ChatGPT will destroy Search volume, and if it will bring in 1/20th the revenue than it might be best for Google to delay adaptation as long as they can. > If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will Google is using 'AI' in all their major products. It's possible that soon AI will make their most profitable products obsolete.
      - midasuni 4y ago
        When the iPhone launched everyone knew smart phones were a thing for businesses - locked down blackberrys giving email access. The mobile web wasn’t really a thing.
    - scarface74 4y ago
      I have no idea why this keeps coming up as an example. Apple didn’t release a cheaper product in favor of a more expensive one.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    Google’s issue has never been engineering talent. Their issue has always been product management/program management. They don’t have vision or strategy.
- zelda420 4y ago
  > The idea that maybe Microsoft or Apple or Google or FB doesn't have enough good engineers to code a best-in-class language model is absurd. Yet Meta's 175billion parameter blenderbot is absolute garbage. Despite claiming stats like 'being twice as knowledgeable' or ' Compared with GPT3, on topical questions it is found to be more up-to-date 82 percent of the time and more specific 76 percent of the time' Feel free to try yourself. https://blenderbot.ai/chat https://blenderbot.ai/chat
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    That's an AI they released 3 months earlier than ChatGPT, that wasn't built for the purposes of ChatGPT. At lot happens in the space in 3 months. See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today...
    - HaZeust 4y ago
      > "A lot can happen in 3 months" > "See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today..." 3 months versus 12 months - a 9 month difference. OpenAI wasn't actually far from today 3 months ago.
- gardenhedge 4y ago
  Have you seen Bing? Microsoft does not have the talent to tackle great products.
alfalfasprout 4y ago
The reality with ML is at this point it's cheaper to let someone else do the research and then as long as you have sufficient data you can copy the approach. The complexity is in making it cost efficient to run, making it intuitive to use, etc. That's a problem that google is more than capable of executing on. They'll need to reorganize to pull it off though. They'll even sprinkle ad results in.
deltree7 4y ago
Queries that generate Ad money are totally different from queries that are Research & Answers.

by mrtksn 4y ago

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

Any FANNG company has the talent to match ChatGPT several times over. The idea that maybe Microsoft or Apple or Google or FB doesn't have enough good engineers to code a best-in-class language model is absurd. They all have orders of magnitude more data than OpenAI to build a better model, though.

thomas_ma 4y ago
I think most people agree with you that Google can beat OpenAI on the eng/tech. Scary part for Google is: how do you monetize it? They might “beat” OpenAI with a better chat AI, but if that cannibalizes their $100bn search ad business…they are in trouble
- midasuni 4y ago
  Better google cannibaliser it than someone else. Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market. Google built a great search engine long before they worked out how to monetise it properly. If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will, and google will go the way of zune.
  - pharmakom 4y ago
    Zune wasn’t the incumbent though.
  - htag 4y ago
    > Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market. This is a terrible example. Everyone knew cell phones were a bigger market than mobile MP3 players, Apple was using this mobile expertise gained in iPod to move to a larger market. We don't know if ChatGPT will be a larger market than search currently is. Digital cameras (include sensors used in webcams and cellphones) are currently a smaller market than selling film was at peak. If ChatGPT will destroy Search volume, and if it will bring in 1/20th the revenue than it might be best for Google to delay adaptation as long as they can. > If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will Google is using 'AI' in all their major products. It's possible that soon AI will make their most profitable products obsolete.
    - midasuni 4y ago
      When the iPhone launched everyone knew smart phones were a thing for businesses - locked down blackberrys giving email access. The mobile web wasn’t really a thing.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    I have no idea why this keeps coming up as an example. Apple didn’t release a cheaper product in favor of a more expensive one.
- scarface74 4y ago
  Google’s issue has never been engineering talent. Their issue has always been product management/program management. They don’t have vision or strategy.
zelda420 4y ago
> The idea that maybe Microsoft or Apple or Google or FB doesn't have enough good engineers to code a best-in-class language model is absurd. Yet Meta's 175billion parameter blenderbot is absolute garbage. Despite claiming stats like 'being twice as knowledgeable' or ' Compared with GPT3, on topical questions it is found to be more up-to-date 82 percent of the time and more specific 76 percent of the time' Feel free to try yourself. https://blenderbot.ai/chat https://blenderbot.ai/chat
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  That's an AI they released 3 months earlier than ChatGPT, that wasn't built for the purposes of ChatGPT. At lot happens in the space in 3 months. See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today...
  - HaZeust 4y ago
    > "A lot can happen in 3 months" > "See where OpenAI was a year ago compared to today..." 3 months versus 12 months - a 9 month difference. OpenAI wasn't actually far from today 3 months ago.
gardenhedge 4y ago
Have you seen Bing? Microsoft does not have the talent to tackle great products.

alfalfasprout 4y ago

The reality with ML is at this point it's cheaper to let someone else do the research and then as long as you have sufficient data you can copy the approach. The complexity is in making it cost efficient to run, making it intuitive to use, etc. That's a problem that google is more than capable of executing on. They'll need to reorganize to pull it off though. They'll even sprinkle ad results in.

deltree7 4y ago

Queries that generate Ad money are totally different from queries that are Research & Answers.