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Maybe this is a good learning experience, and you could use it to update your beliefs about financial markets? If you're directionally and quantitatively wrong
by mgraczyk 4y ago
Maybe this is a good learning experience, and you could use it to update your beliefs about financial markets? If you're directionally and quantitatively wrong about some prediction for many years, it's very likely you are missing something.
- arcticbull 4y agoBeing right at the wrong time is the same as being wrong from a financial perspective. Tether's time will come, though.
- codehalo 4y agoYou have been wrong for close to 10 years. At some point you need to just let it go.
- arcticbull 4y agoHow have I been wrong? The NYAG and the CFTC have now definitively proven me right. Letitia James says: > The OAG’s investigation found that, starting no later than mid-2017, Tether had no access to banking, anywhere in the world, and so for periods of time held no reserves to back tethers in circulation at the rate of one dollar for every tether, contrary to its representations. The CFTC says: > As found in the order, Tether held sufficient fiat reserves in its accounts to back USDT tether tokens in circulation for only 27.6% of the days in a 26-month sample time period from 2016 through 2018. How exactly am I wrong? And please be specific. It's something they paid significant quantities of penalties over. The shit I've been saying is literally in government PDF form now. I suspect I'm not the one who needs to let it go.
- polygamous_bat 4y ago- Bernie Madoff, fund manager, 1970s-2008.
- mgraczyk 4y agoActually a good example, you should look at the actual losses incurred by investors in Madoff's fund. It would probably be educational if you think tether could "go to zero".
- polygamous_bat 4y agoHere's Terra Luna price today: https://www.coinbase.com/price/terra-luna https://www.coinbase.com/price/terra-luna. Clearly, it is above zero (it's $0.000170 for those curious.) I think I would be happy to concede one USDT is worth definitely above $0.000170 while also maintaining it's worth definitely below $1.
- piqi 4y agoTerra was an algorithmic stablecoin (ie not really a stablecoin). It can't be compared to Tether. There were fundamental flaws with how Terra worked. A reductive way to describe it is, Terra was backed by Luna. Luna's price was determined by the market. Luna's supply was infinite. The price would go down if market demand didn't keep up with supply increases. Doomed from the beginning.
- mgraczyk 4y agoAnother important lesson is to look at Luna and understand the difference between it and tether. Luna was highly leveraged and had essentially no collateral with exogenous value. Tether is sketchy and potentially fraudulently under collateralized, but clearly has substantial USD collateral.