4 ms·

The drop-off after launch is pretty wild.

mouse_ 4y ago
Yeah, I'm waiting for adventure mode. That's the only part of this game that ever interested me; I wanna play it like a roguelike/dungeon crawler.
hrydgard 4y ago
What dropoff? The newest number is on top. (Though yeah, there will be a dropoff for sure, it's just not visible here).
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- usrusr 4y ago
  There has been a discount.
- ad404b8a372f2b9 4y ago
  Ha, I should really learn to read.
sph 4y ago
If you mean in player count, that's normal. Peak is always during launch day, then there's a long tail, and very successful games might slowly rise after a couple years and surpass the launch peak. While Dwarf Fortress has had a fantastic launch, it will never be a wildly popular game to increase its player base by much more than its release, especially in the oversaturated gaming market of today.
- smcl 4y ago
  Yeah there's always a fairly substantial drop-off. Dwarf Fortress[0] dropping by half from 14k on average down to 7k one month later is roughly the same as Elden Ring[1] (522k to 211k) but on a slightly different scale [0] - https://steamcharts.com/app/975370 https://steamcharts.com/app/975370 [1] - https://steamcharts.com/app/1245620 https://steamcharts.com/app/1245620
- Nzen 4y ago
  If you would like to hear an analysis of these two trends, Jason Rohrer goes over launch day sales for a game he released in 2014 and 2018 in this gdc talk [0]. [0] https://youtu.be/sIqz5xmQKnc?t=506 https://youtu.be/sIqz5xmQKnc?t=506 While the entire video is 32 minutes, the relevant section is about 5 minutes.
SXX 4y ago
For normal commercial games there is a formula of how you can estimate first year and lifetimes sales of specific title: Sales in first 2 months * 2 = Sales in first year Sales in first year * 2 = Lifetime sales Since DF is very special project it's will likely have much longer tail of sales, but most likely math would be about the same during first 3-5 years. PS: I'm game developer and this is industry standard to estimate sales.
- usrusr 4y ago
  And that's for regular releases. I'd be surprised if the initial drop wasn't much stronger for something that has already been a living legend for many years. That initial wave of "oh, I've heard so much of them, probably won't play even with a graphical mode, but I still want it in my library" is one of a kind. The long tail will probably be much flatter, but only compare to regular releases once you separate out everybody who bought in roughly the same way those nice hardback Shakespeare collections are bought.
  - nivenkos 4y ago
    I'm a fan of the game but waiting for proper Linux support. I also have a lot of other games to finish beforehand.
    - komali2 4y ago
      What issues were you having? I run it on a steam deck just fine all the time. I guess you mean you don't want to run on a compatibility layer? I haven't noticed performance issues if that's your concern.
- somenameforme 4y ago
  Most games are developed, a bit of effort/money directed on promotion/marketing, dropped, and then onto the next project. So I think these numbers are more of a reflection of developer than consumer trends. Games that are developed in a different way often show [very] different trends. One of the most extreme examples I can think of is Kenshi. Its SteamDB [1] numbers are something else! It was made by one guy who worked as a security guard to make ends meet while making it. Of course making games has to be a labor of love though. I mean the guy had double digit player counts for years, and sales likely reflective of that (if not worse), while he continued to keep developing a game that he was clearly building for himself at least as much as for "the market." And as for Dwarf Fortress, it's kind of in a mixed zone, because it got the sort of big marketing/promotion push that's usually reserved for "fire it and forget it" type titles, and the consequent drop in players it entails as you ended up doing things like attracting players who thought they were buying 'The Sims - Ultra Detailed Dwarven Edition With Retro Graphics' and quit after 30 minutes. But I really don't think that's the developer's plan. So I suppose we'll see!
poulpy123 4y ago
there is no drop off visible yet, the first number is also their latest (january but I guess it also cover the december sales)
ilyt 4y ago
Those are preceding months and are not sales but donations
officeplant 4y ago
Still waiting to join the second wave of macOS buyers stuck on the original game.
AlwaysRock 4y ago
I was confused initially as well but you are reading it backwards. They were getting ~15k a month before launch and that jumped to 7 mill after launch. I am very interested to see what it normalizes to. 100K a month? several hundred? 15K a month again?

Yeah, I'm waiting for adventure mode. That's the only part of this game that ever interested me; I wanna play it like a roguelike/dungeon crawler.

hrydgard 4y ago

What dropoff? The newest number is on top. (Though yeah, there will be a dropoff for sure, it's just not visible here).

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
usrusr 4y ago
There has been a discount.
ad404b8a372f2b9 4y ago
Ha, I should really learn to read.

sph 4y ago

If you mean in player count, that's normal. Peak is always during launch day, then there's a long tail, and very successful games might slowly rise after a couple years and surpass the launch peak. While Dwarf Fortress has had a fantastic launch, it will never be a wildly popular game to increase its player base by much more than its release, especially in the oversaturated gaming market of today.

smcl 4y ago
Yeah there's always a fairly substantial drop-off. Dwarf Fortress[0] dropping by half from 14k on average down to 7k one month later is roughly the same as Elden Ring[1] (522k to 211k) but on a slightly different scale [0] - https://steamcharts.com/app/975370 https://steamcharts.com/app/975370 [1] - https://steamcharts.com/app/1245620 https://steamcharts.com/app/1245620
Nzen 4y ago
If you would like to hear an analysis of these two trends, Jason Rohrer goes over launch day sales for a game he released in 2014 and 2018 in this gdc talk [0]. [0] https://youtu.be/sIqz5xmQKnc?t=506 https://youtu.be/sIqz5xmQKnc?t=506 While the entire video is 32 minutes, the relevant section is about 5 minutes.

SXX 4y ago

For normal commercial games there is a formula of how you can estimate first year and lifetimes sales of specific title: Sales in first 2 months * 2 = Sales in first year Sales in first year * 2 = Lifetime sales Since DF is very special project it's will likely have much longer tail of sales, but most likely math would be about the same during first 3-5 years. PS: I'm game developer and this is industry standard to estimate sales.

usrusr 4y ago
And that's for regular releases. I'd be surprised if the initial drop wasn't much stronger for something that has already been a living legend for many years. That initial wave of "oh, I've heard so much of them, probably won't play even with a graphical mode, but I still want it in my library" is one of a kind. The long tail will probably be much flatter, but only compare to regular releases once you separate out everybody who bought in roughly the same way those nice hardback Shakespeare collections are bought.
- nivenkos 4y ago
  I'm a fan of the game but waiting for proper Linux support. I also have a lot of other games to finish beforehand.
  - komali2 4y ago
    What issues were you having? I run it on a steam deck just fine all the time. I guess you mean you don't want to run on a compatibility layer? I haven't noticed performance issues if that's your concern.
somenameforme 4y ago
Most games are developed, a bit of effort/money directed on promotion/marketing, dropped, and then onto the next project. So I think these numbers are more of a reflection of developer than consumer trends. Games that are developed in a different way often show [very] different trends. One of the most extreme examples I can think of is Kenshi. Its SteamDB [1] numbers are something else! It was made by one guy who worked as a security guard to make ends meet while making it. Of course making games has to be a labor of love though. I mean the guy had double digit player counts for years, and sales likely reflective of that (if not worse), while he continued to keep developing a game that he was clearly building for himself at least as much as for "the market." And as for Dwarf Fortress, it's kind of in a mixed zone, because it got the sort of big marketing/promotion push that's usually reserved for "fire it and forget it" type titles, and the consequent drop in players it entails as you ended up doing things like attracting players who thought they were buying 'The Sims - Ultra Detailed Dwarven Edition With Retro Graphics' and quit after 30 minutes. But I really don't think that's the developer's plan. So I suppose we'll see!

poulpy123 4y ago

there is no drop off visible yet, the first number is also their latest (january but I guess it also cover the december sales)

ilyt 4y ago

Those are preceding months and are not sales but donations

officeplant 4y ago

Still waiting to join the second wave of macOS buyers stuck on the original game.

AlwaysRock 4y ago

I was confused initially as well but you are reading it backwards. They were getting ~15k a month before launch and that jumped to 7 mill after launch. I am very interested to see what it normalizes to. 100K a month? several hundred? 15K a month again?