4 ms·
Well, he could be 10x smarter /once/, and very wrong the rest of the time. This is a flaw in financial and business reporting: we tend to ascribe oracular power
by kjellsbells 4y ago
Well, he could be 10x smarter /once/, and very wrong the rest of the time. This is a flaw in financial and business reporting: we tend to ascribe oracular powers to people who have been right once before which can blind us to analyzing their newer claims fairly.
- aliqot 4y agoI get this kinda of uncanny intelligence vs uncanny happenstance feeling too sometimes. Michael Bury comes to mind.
- nmfisher 4y agoIronically that is very close to his philosophy of antifragility - it doesn’t matter if you’re “right” nine times out of ten, if the tenth is the one that wipes you out.