6 ms·

That's a ridiculous forecast.

by ipsum2 4y ago

kibwen 4y ago
Modern investing isn't about evaluating a company's products or services, it's about making increasingly-outrageous claims in order to take advantage of the human tendency to fail to exercise skepticism for sufficently-outrageous lies. The goal is to create a fanatical religion of financial death-cultists who will endlessly proselytize in the pursuit of a promised "to the moon" event, in the same way that Heaven's Gate believed that UFOs would swoop down and take them to heaven. So, indeed, by 2035 we can accurately predict that half of all global GDP will be in Facebook, half will be in Tesla, the other half will be tied up in Bitcoin, and the rest of the world economy (who probably aren't doing anything important anyway) will fight over the fourth half.
- deltree7 4y ago
  World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People conservatively will live in a Metaverse an average of 4 hours or 25% of their waking day or $50 Trillion of it. Even if you are conservative, Metaverse is a $30 Trillion opportunity. Ignore at your own peril
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    … Why would they do that, tho? Like, the real world exists, just outside the door. I think VR advocates possibly are inclined to overestimate just how much people will like VR. It seems fairly plausible that it remains a niche hobby.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      Yep, you sound like the same person who dismissed internet at 9600 baud because you lack the imagination of what the internet would look like at 1Gbps
  - ben_w 4y ago
    25% of time != 25% of economic value. There's 122 waking hours in a week, so by way of example: the USA's workforce of 155 million (much smaller than the population as a whole) does an average of 35 hours per week, which means the entire productive output of the economy is squeezed into 12.9% of the entire population's waking hours. Some of the non-productive time involves other people getting paid, but (excluding taxes and rent which I don't think make a difference in this scenario) not all of it. Also think about how Linux and Wikipedia are free even if your internet connection and device(s) aren't.
    - deltree7 4y ago
      The only thing you need the outside world is food (including healthcare) and a climate controlled 20 x 20 room with plumbing. everything else can and will be simulated.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
It’s obviously going to be $21T

That's a ridiculous forecast.

by ipsum2 4y ago

That's a ridiculous forecast.

Modern investing isn't about evaluating a company's products or services, it's about making increasingly-outrageous claims in order to take advantage of the human tendency to fail to exercise skepticism for sufficently-outrageous lies. The goal is to create a fanatical religion of financial death-cultists who will endlessly proselytize in the pursuit of a promised "to the moon" event, in the same way that Heaven's Gate believed that UFOs would swoop down and take them to heaven. So, indeed, by 2035 we can accurately predict that half of all global GDP will be in Facebook, half will be in Tesla, the other half will be tied up in Bitcoin, and the rest of the world economy (who probably aren't doing anything important anyway) will fight over the fourth half.

deltree7 4y ago
World GDP by 2035 is $200 Trillion People conservatively will live in a Metaverse an average of 4 hours or 25% of their waking day or $50 Trillion of it. Even if you are conservative, Metaverse is a $30 Trillion opportunity. Ignore at your own peril
- rsynnott 4y ago
  … Why would they do that, tho? Like, the real world exists, just outside the door. I think VR advocates possibly are inclined to overestimate just how much people will like VR. It seems fairly plausible that it remains a niche hobby.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    Yep, you sound like the same person who dismissed internet at 9600 baud because you lack the imagination of what the internet would look like at 1Gbps
- ben_w 4y ago
  25% of time != 25% of economic value. There's 122 waking hours in a week, so by way of example: the USA's workforce of 155 million (much smaller than the population as a whole) does an average of 35 hours per week, which means the entire productive output of the economy is squeezed into 12.9% of the entire population's waking hours. Some of the non-productive time involves other people getting paid, but (excluding taxes and rent which I don't think make a difference in this scenario) not all of it. Also think about how Linux and Wikipedia are free even if your internet connection and device(s) aren't.
  - deltree7 4y ago
    The only thing you need the outside world is food (including healthcare) and a climate controlled 20 x 20 room with plumbing. everything else can and will be simulated.

coffeebeqn 4y ago

It’s obviously going to be $21T